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56

CGBD

๐Ÿฆ Financial Services

Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc.

Conservative #468Aggressive #1168Low RiskMixed 45MLโ†‘ 27pt
$11.58+1.87%
Day High$11.62
Day Low$11.21
Volume0.6M
Mkt Cap$844M
52W Low $1152W High $18
Market Cap
$839M
P/E Ratio
11.4
Sector avg: 26.8
Rev Growth
-2.9%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
-3.6%
Profit Margin
45.1%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
1.10

Why This Score

CGBD scores 55.6 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High net margin of 45.1%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Attractively valued at 11.4x earnings, below the market average.
  • Low volatility (4.6% annualized) โ€” well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 1.10) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Minor adjustments (-3.0 points) applied. CGBD's rank of #468 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score55.6
Fundamental Score56.1
ML Score52.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
58.9
6 Month
65.8
Primary
1 Year
69.2

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns
Quality Flags
False stability: 0.046 vol with only -2.9% revenue growth โ€” stagnation, not safety (declining revenue overrides sector exemption)

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
30
Negative
Analyst (6.4%)
50
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
70
Grade B
Base
53.2
SHAP
+2.4
Factors
+0.5
Conviction
-0.5
Final
55.6
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)59.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)54.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)57.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-5.1% to +1.3%
Medium-term
-7.3% to +2.3%
Long-term
-9.5% to +3.2%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 52

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score50.0/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage0 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score29.6/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 โ€” Declining
12M Momentum-0.2%
6M Momentum-0.1%
Volatility+0.0%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-15.2%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.38)
Relative Strength vs Sector-33.3%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality-0.200
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
4%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P15
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P71
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P6
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
-0.1ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
YES
Below-sector growth + cheap PE

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 41 relative to sector peers41/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 69th percentileP69
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +2.4pt (features align with model priorities)โ€”
Blend: 91% fund (41.1) + 9% ML (68.6) + SHAP(+2.4) = 46.0โ€”
Factor quality: +0.5pt (multi-factor composite)โ€”
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 4.6%. Stability bonus of +12.0 points. Max drawdown 18% (-4.1 pts). Price momentum -24% (-3.9 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: -15.0 points ($0.8B market cap)-15.0 pts
Divergence penalty: -2.6pt (ML 27pt higher)โ€”
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -23 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (171.7%) โ€” earnings quality concern; False stability: 0.0 vol with only -2.9% revenue growth โ€” stagnation, not safety (declining revenue overrides sector exemption)Flag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services โ€” Rank #153 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
CGBD55.611.4-2.9%45.1%$839M
CME86.427.29.9%57.5%$112.1B
FHB84.911.83.2%24.2%$3.2B
ACT84.48.92.4%54.6%$6.1B
CINF84.210.711.4%18.9%$25.8B
SEIC82.214.010.7%27.3%$10.1B
TROW79.910.13.1%28.5%$21.1B
QQQX79.710.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
IBOC78.210.67.5%40.1%$4.4B
HWC77.812.2-1.5%24.1%$5.8B
FFIN77.418.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TRMK77.111.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
NMIH77.07.78.4%55.1%$3.1B
EWBC76.712.74.6%28.3%$16.0B
WSFS76.312.8-3.1%21.1%$3.6B
MCHB76.1N/A123.7%23.2%$3.3B
Sector Average47.526.813.4%-2.8%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

TCG BDC, Inc. is business development company specializing in first lien debt, senior secured loans, second lien senior secured loan unsecured debt, mezzanine debt and investments in equities. It specializes in directly investing. It specializes in middle market. It targets healthcare and pharmaceutical, aerospace and defense, high tech industries, business services, software, beverage food and tobacco, hotel gamming and leisure, banking finance insurance and in real estate sector. The fund seeks to invest across United States of America, Luxembourg, Cayman Islands, Cyprus, and United Kingdom. It invests in companies with EBITDA between $25 million and $100 million.

CEO
Thomas Hennigan
Employees
2,300
Beta
0.74
Industry
Asset Management
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
40.3
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-37.1%
High: $18.4
From 52W Low
+6.6%
Low: $10.87
Moving Averages
10-Day
$11.60
Below
20-Day
$11.90
Below
50-Day
$12.30
Below
200-Day
$13.10
Below
60-Day Support
$10.87
60-Day Resistance
$13.28
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 โ€” DecliningScore: 16/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-11.6%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-7.45%
Falling
Volume Ratio
1.38x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$67M$49M$39M$35M
Gross Profit$0$27M$17M$17M
Operating Income$0$24M$15M$15M
Net Income$0$24M$15M$14M
EPS (Diluted)$0.00$0.33$0.20$0.25
Gross Margin0.0%54.3%44.4%47.3%
Operating Margin0.0%50.0%38.4%41.8%
Net Margin0.0%49.0%37.5%39.8%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 11.4Profit margin 45.1%

Tradability FilterGrade B โ€” 70/100Score impact: +16.4pt

Volume
81
514K avg/day
Dollar Vol
51
$6M/day
Float
89
72M shares
Mkt Cap
36
$839M
Range
93
66% spread
Composite Liquidity Score70/100
FDCBA

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.34x dampening
weinstein basingslight revenue declinestagnation flag

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
99.4%
Outstanding Shares
73M
Bid-Ask Spread
66.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.