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46

MBUU

๐Ÿ›๏ธ Consumer Cyclical

Malibu Boats, Inc.

Conservative #730Aggressive #1030Low RiskMixed 47MLโ†‘ 16pt
$29.87+0.57%
Day High$30.05
Day Low$29.37
Volume0.1M
Mkt Cap$574M
52W Low $2452W High $40
Market Cap
$608M
P/E Ratio
42.0
Sector avg: 36.9
Rev Growth
-2.6%
Sector avg: 6.3%
Earnings Growth
126.6%
Profit Margin
1.8%
Sector avg: -6.5%
Debt/Equity
0.06

Why This Score

MBUU scores 46.0 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.06) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 5-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Elevated valuation at 42.0x earnings โ€” requires sustained growth to justify the premium.

Moderate penalties (-5.7 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score46.0
Fundamental Score51.8
ML Score32.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
73.3
6 Month
81.9
Primary
1 Year
86.2

Quality Assessment

F
Earnings Grade
Weak fundamentals or significant quality concerns
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (-277.6%) โ€” earnings quality concern

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
50
Basing
Sentiment (2.5%)
47
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
63
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
51
Grade C
Base
42.7
SHAP
+2.8
Factors
+1.2
Divergence
-0.7
Final
46.0
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)46.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)58.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)77.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-0.4% to +6.3%
Medium-term
-0.1% to +10.0%
Long-term
+0.2% to +13.7%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 32

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score62.5/100
Target Upside+13.1%
Coverage16 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score46.6/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage1 โ€” Basing
12M Momentum-0.1%
6M Momentum-0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-0.5%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.91)
Relative Strength vs Sector-6.7%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.8)
Momentum Quality-0.047
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
5%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P19
Revenue growth vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector PE Rank
P14
Valuation vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector FCF Rank
P46
Free cash flow vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Growth Deviation
-0.4ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 71 relative to sector peers71/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 87th percentileP87
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.0pt (features align with model priorities)โ€”
Blend: 91% fund (71.1) + 9% ML (87.3) + SHAP(+3.0) = 75.5โ€”
Factor quality: +1.3pt (multi-factor composite)โ€”
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 7.3%. Max drawdown 16% (-3.3 pts). Price momentum -6% (-0.1 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: -15.0 points ($0.6B market cap)-15.0 pts
Divergence penalty: -0.8pt (ML 16pt higher)โ€”
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade F: assessed. Score adjusted by -29 pointsGrade F
Quality concern: Earnings growth (127%) far exceeds revenue growth (-2.6%) โ€” margin expansion may not be sustainable; Earnings/revenue growth ratio of Infinityx โ€” earnings quality suspect; High accrual ratio (-277.6%) โ€” earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Cyclical โ€” Rank #61 of 114 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
MBUU46.042.0-2.6%1.8%$608M
MAR76.937.24.3%9.9%$93.0B
ULTA75.526.20.8%10.6%$31.0B
ABNB75.530.110.3%20.5%$81.8B
ORLY73.132.55.7%14.3%$77.0B
HAS73.016.7-17.3%9.3%$14.1B
ROST71.530.73.7%9.9%$66.4B
GTX71.511.83.1%8.6%$4.0B
DPZ71.121.95.1%12.4%$13.7B
CART69.719.911.0%13.5%$9.9B
EBAY69.618.31.7%19.3%$39.7B
GNTX68.314.30.6%17.5%$5.2B
MCRI66.117.24.4%18.6%$1.8B
CASY65.541.07.3%3.4%$25.2B
AMZN65.527.712.4%10.8%$2.2T
TXRH65.227.616.0%8.1%$12.2B
Sector Average47.336.96.3%-6.5%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Malibu Boats, Inc. engages in the design, engineering, manufacturing, marketing, and sale of a range of recreational powerboats. It operates through three segments: Malibu, Saltwater Fishing, and Cobalt. The company offers performance sport boats, and sterndrive and outboard boats under the Malibu, Axis, Pursuit, Maverick, Cobia, Pathfinder, Hewes, and Cobalt brands. Its products are used for a range of recreational boating activities, including water sports, such as water skiing, wakeboarding, and wake surfing, as well as general recreational boating and fishing. The company sells its products through independent dealers in North America, Europe, Asia, the Middle East, South America, South Africa, and Australia/New Zealand. Malibu Boats, Inc. was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Loudon, Tennessee.

CEO
Steven D. Menneto
Employees
2,250
Beta
1.21
Industry
Auto - Recreational Vehicles
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
44.4
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-24.5%
High: $39.65
From 52W Low
+24.4%
Low: $24.07
Moving Averages
10-Day
$30.90
Below
20-Day
$31.60
Below
50-Day
$31.20
Below
200-Day
$31.60
Below
60-Day Support
$27.04
60-Day Resistance
$34.97
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 1 โ€” BasingScore: 38/100

Stock is building a base after a decline. The 200-day moving average is flattening. Watch for a breakout above the 200-day SMA on increased volume.

Monitor for breakout above 200-day SMA on volume
Transition signal: 1โ†’2
Price vs 200 SMA
-5.2%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+0.31%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
0.96x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
4
Confidence: 80%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2025Q3 2025
Revenue$189M$195M$207M$229M
Gross Profit$23M$26M$33M$46M
Operating Income$-3M$-842,000$7M$17M
Net Income$-2M$-702,000$5M$13M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.13$-0.04$0.24$0.66
Gross Margin12.4%13.5%15.8%20.0%
Operating Margin-1.9%-0.4%3.3%7.6%
Net Margin-1.3%-0.4%2.3%5.6%

Why This Stock

Consumer CyclicalValuation below sector median (P/E 42.0)

Tradability FilterGrade C โ€” 51/100Score impact: +0.1pt

Volume
52
224K avg/day
Dollar Vol
54
$7M/day
Float
40
0K shares
Mkt Cap
32
$608M
Range
92
65% spread
Composite Liquidity Score51/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$61.57$93.0040.7%Wide
2022$46.30$72.4744.1%Wide
2023$42.07$65.4543.5%Wide
2024$30.20$55.0758.3%Wide
2025$24.07$42.4955.3%Wide
3-Year Range
92.4%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.49x dampening
weinstein basingslight revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
65.0%
Institutional Tradable
Limited

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.