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ARKO

๐Ÿ›๏ธ Consumer Cyclical

Arko Corp.

Conservative #968Aggressive #1184Low RiskMLโ†‘ 32pt
$6.19+4.56%
Day High$6.48
Day Low$6.11
Volume0.8M
Mkt Cap$690M
52W Low $452W High $8
Market Cap
$694M
P/E Ratio
36.8
Sector avg: 36.9
Rev Growth
-7.2%
Sector avg: 6.3%
Earnings Growth
-39.3%
Profit Margin
0.2%
Sector avg: -6.5%
Debt/Equity
6.95

Why This Score

ARKO scores 35.6 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Above-average volatility (10.3%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 6.95) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Moderate penalties (-5.8 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score35.6
Fundamental Score42.7
ML Score23.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
69.7
6 Month
77.9
Primary
1 Year
82.0

Quality Assessment

D
Quality Grade
Below average quality โ€” weak profitability or high leverage
2 quality flags detected โ€” see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (-818.6%) โ€” earnings quality concern
Extreme leverage: D/E ratio of 6.9x โ€” balance sheet risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
70
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
63
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
62
Grade Blow dollar volume
Base
36.8
SHAP
-0.3
Factors
+1.1
Conviction
-1.3
Divergence
-0.7
Final
35.6
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

50AVG
Value60
Quality25
Growth13
Stability61
Investment92

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)13.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)86.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)83.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+0.0% to +4.3%
Medium-term
+0.5% to +7.1%
Long-term
+1.0% to +9.8%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 23

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score62.5/100
Target Upside+27.1%
Coverage4 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score70.4/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+0.4%
6M Momentum+0.3%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+15.8%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.64)
Relative Strength vs Sector+43.0%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (4.3)
Momentum Quality+0.391
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
7%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P11
Revenue growth vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector PE Rank
P18
Valuation vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector FCF Rank
P46
Free cash flow vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Growth Deviation
-0.6ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 43 relative to sector peers43/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 23th percentileP23
Blended score: 80% fundamental (43) + 20% ML (23) = 38.838.8
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 11% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade D
Conviction adj: -1.3pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Divergence penalty: -0.7pt (ML 20pt lower)Divergence
Risk Factors
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-818.6%) โ€” earnings quality concern; Extreme leverage: D/E ratio of 6.9x โ€” balance sheet riskFlag
Liquidity penalty: -2.0pt (grade B)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Cyclical โ€” Rank #88 of 114 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
ARKO35.636.8-7.2%0.2%$694M
MAR76.937.24.3%9.9%$93.0B
ULTA75.526.20.8%10.6%$31.0B
ABNB75.530.110.3%20.5%$81.8B
ORLY73.132.55.7%14.3%$77.0B
HAS73.016.7-17.3%9.3%$14.1B
GTX71.611.83.1%8.6%$4.0B
ROST71.530.73.7%9.9%$66.4B
DPZ71.121.95.1%12.4%$13.7B
CART69.719.911.0%13.5%$9.9B
EBAY69.618.31.7%19.3%$39.7B
GNTX68.314.30.6%17.5%$5.2B
MCRI66.217.24.4%18.6%$1.8B
CASY65.541.07.3%3.4%$25.2B
AMZN65.527.712.4%10.8%$2.2T
TXRH65.227.616.0%8.1%$12.2B
Sector Average47.436.96.3%-6.5%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Hold4 analysts
Strong Buy: 1Hold: 3
Price Target
$8consensus
Low $6Median $8High $9
+22.5% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Arko Corp. operates convenience stores in the United States. It operates through three segments: Retail, Wholesale, and GPM Petroleum. The Retail segment engages in the sale of fuel and merchandise to retail consumers. The Wholesale segment supplies fuel to third-party dealers and consignment agents. The GPM Petroleum segment supplies fuel to independent dealers, and bulk and spot purchasers. It operates approximately 3,000 locations comprising approximately 1,400 company-operated stores and approximately 1,650 dealer sites. The company is based in Richmond, Virginia.

CEO
Arie Kotler
Employees
11,772
Beta
0.87
Industry
Specialty Retail
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
38.4
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-16.2%
High: $7.39
From 52W Low
+76.4%
Low: $3.51
Moving Averages
10-Day
$6.10
Above
20-Day
$6.10
Above
50-Day
$5.40
Above
200-Day
$4.80
Above
60-Day Support
$4.32
60-Day Resistance
$6.71
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 86/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+29%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+4.48%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.96x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
34
Confidence: 90%
Recent Gap Up

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$1.8B$2.0B$2.0B$1.8B
Gross Profit$614M$111M$114M$67M
Operating Income$21M$36M$57M$-12M
Net Income$14M$13M$20M$-13M
EPS (Diluted)$0.01$0.10$0.16$-0.12
Gross Margin34.2%5.5%5.7%3.7%
Operating Margin1.2%1.8%2.8%-0.6%
Net Margin0.8%0.7%1.0%-0.7%

Why This Stock

Consumer CyclicalValuation below sector median (P/E 36.8)

Tradability FilterGrade B โ€” 62/100Score impact: -13.7pt

Volume
78
484K avg/day
Dollar Vol
24
$3M/day
Float
89
72M shares
Mkt Cap
33
$694M
Range
100
118% spread
Composite Liquidity Score62/100
FDCBA
low dollar volume

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.5x dampening
revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
64.9%
Outstanding Shares
111M
Bid-Ask Spread
118.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.