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PSNY

๐Ÿ›๏ธ Consumer Cyclical

Polestar Automotive Holding UK PLC

Conservative #1215Aggressive #1353High Risk
$19.33-1.88%
Day High$20.00
Day Low$18.94
Volume0.1M
Mkt Cap$1.4B
52W Low $1252W High $43
Market Cap
$1.4B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
-14.5%
Sector avg: 6.3%
Earnings Growth
-71.6%
Profit Margin
-89.0%
Sector avg: -6.5%
Debt/Equity
N/A

Why This Score

PSNY scores 23.8 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 59.8% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • Minimal leverage (D/E -1.32) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • High conviction (72/100) โ€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Above-average volatility (20.7%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Minor adjustments (-3.0 points) applied. PSNY's rank of #1215 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score23.8
Fundamental Score28.3
ML Score15.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
22.0
6 Month
24.6
Primary
1 Year
25.9

Quality Assessment

D
Quality Grade
Below average quality โ€” weak profitability or high leverage
1 quality flag detected โ€” see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
Negative ROIC (-147.6%) with high ROE (59.8%) โ€” capital structure distortion (possibly negative equity or one-time gain)

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
3.9%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
17
Negative
Analyst (6.4%)
35
Weak
Tradability (post-hoc)
65
Grade B
Base
23.6
SHAP
+0.7
Factors
-0.5
Final
23.8
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

29AVG
Value50
Quality33
Growth6
Stability32
Investment24

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)54.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)23.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)38.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-23.0% to -12.5%
Medium-term
-30.7% to -15.9%
Long-term
-38.5% to -19.2%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 15

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score35.0/100
Target Upside-12.9%
Coverage5 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score16.7/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 โ€” Declining
12M Momentum-0.4%
6M Momentum-0.6%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+11.5%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.79)
Relative Strength vs Sector-44.7%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (2.1)
Momentum Quality-0.161
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
0%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P7
Revenue growth vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector PE Rank
P43
Valuation vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector FCF Rank
P1
Free cash flow vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Growth Deviation
-1.1ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 28 relative to sector peers28/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 15th percentileP15
Blended score: 80% fundamental (28) + 20% ML (15) = 25.625.6
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.2%; Drawdown 63% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade D
SHAP feature alignment: +0.7pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Risk Factors
Quality concern: Negative ROIC (-147.6%) with high ROE (59.8%) โ€” capital structure distortion (possibly negative equity or one-time gain)Flag
Liquidity penalty: -2.0pt (grade B)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Cyclical โ€” Rank #105 of 114 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
PSNY23.8N/A-14.5%-89.0%$1.4B
MAR76.937.24.3%9.9%$93.0B
ULTA75.526.20.8%10.6%$31.0B
ABNB75.530.110.3%20.5%$81.8B
ORLY73.132.55.7%14.3%$77.0B
HAS73.016.7-17.3%9.3%$14.1B
GTX71.611.83.1%8.6%$4.0B
ROST71.530.73.7%9.9%$66.4B
DPZ71.121.95.1%12.4%$13.7B
CART69.719.911.0%13.5%$9.9B
EBAY69.618.31.7%19.3%$39.7B
GNTX68.314.30.6%17.5%$5.2B
MCRI66.217.24.4%18.6%$1.8B
CASY65.541.07.3%3.4%$25.2B
AMZN65.527.712.4%10.8%$2.2T
TXRH65.227.616.0%8.1%$12.2B
Sector Average47.436.96.3%-6.5%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Sell5 analysts
Hold: 2Sell: 3
Price Target
$15consensus
Low $15Median $15High $15
-22.4% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Polestar Automotive Holding UK PLC manufactures and sells premium electric vehicles. The company was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Gothenburg, Sweden.

CEO
Michael Lohscheller
Employees
2,547
Beta
1.85
Industry
Auto - Manufacturers
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
66.2
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-54.6%
High: $42.6
From 52W Low
+64.5%
Low: $11.75
Moving Averages
10-Day
$18.10
Above
20-Day
$17.20
Above
50-Day
$17.80
Above
200-Day
$26.00
Below
60-Day Support
$11.75
60-Day Resistance
$23.28
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 โ€” DecliningScore: 10/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-25.7%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-14.41%
Falling
Volume Ratio
0.72x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024
Revenue$711M$711M$564M$564M
Gross Profit$10M$10M$-424M$-424M
Operating Income$-548M$-548M$-674M$-674M
Net Income$-597M$-597M$-755M$-323M
EPS (Diluted)$-8.40$-8.40$-10.80$-4.50
Gross Margin1.4%1.4%-75.2%-75.2%
Operating Margin-77.0%-77.0%-119.5%-119.5%
Net Margin-83.9%-83.9%-133.8%-57.3%

Why This Stock

Consumer CyclicalValuation below sector median

Tradability FilterGrade B โ€” 65/100Score impact: -12.5pt

Volume
59
286K avg/day
Dollar Vol
50
$5M/day
Float
90
76M shares
Mkt Cap
45
$1.4B
Range
100
263% spread
Composite Liquidity Score65/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$291.00$492.3051.4%Wide
2022$120.00$400.80107.8%Wide
2023$59.40$197.70107.6%Wide
2024$18.30$69.87117%Wide
2025$11.75$42.60113.5%Wide
3-Year Range
177.6%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.35x dampening
weinstein basingrevenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
107.9%
Outstanding Shares
70M
Bid-Ask Spread
263.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.