Back to Dashboard
43

MCFT

๐Ÿ›๏ธ Consumer Cyclical

MasterCraft Boat Holdings, Inc.

Conservative #803Aggressive #1291Low RiskHigh 100
$22.64+0.62%
Day High$22.90
Day Low$22.33
Volume0.2M
Mkt Cap$369M
52W Low $1452W High $26
Market Cap
$379M
P/E Ratio
24.6
Sector avg: 36.9
Rev Growth
-22.5%
Sector avg: 6.3%
Earnings Growth
-9.7%
Profit Margin
5.3%
Sector avg: -6.5%
Debt/Equity
N/A

Why This Score

MCFT scores 43.6 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.00) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (36%) โ€” steady appreciation without overheating.
  • High conviction (100/100) โ€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 15-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.

Net penalties of -16.5 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, MCFT would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score43.6
Fundamental Score61.1
ML Score36.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
61.1
6 Month
68.3
Primary
1 Year
71.8

Quality Assessment

D
Quality Grade
Below average quality โ€” weak profitability or high leverage

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
59
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
63
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
34
Grade Dlow volume, low dollar volume
Base
41.1
SHAP
+1.4
Factors
+0.6
Conviction
+2.0
Divergence
-1.5
Final
43.6
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

56AVG
Value70
Quality37
Growth13
Stability82
Investment80

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)38.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)80.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)80.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-2.6% to +3.5%
Medium-term
-3.7% to +5.5%
Long-term
-4.8% to +7.5%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 36

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score62.5/100
Target Upside+4.9%
Coverage10 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score59.1/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+0.4%
6M Momentum+0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+27.0%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.25)
Relative Strength vs Sector+34.8%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (4.9)
Momentum Quality+0.303
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
21%
Moderate โ€” watch growth
Sector RevGr Rank
P4
Revenue growth vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector PE Rank
P38
Valuation vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector FCF Rank
P58
Free cash flow vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Growth Deviation
-1.5ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 61 relative to sector peers61/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 36th percentileP36
Blended score: 80% fundamental (61) + 20% ML (36) = 56.156.1
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 16% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade D
SHAP feature alignment: +1.4pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: +2.0pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Divergence penalty: -1.5pt (ML 25pt lower)Divergence
Risk Factors
Liquidity penalty: -15.0pt (grade D)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Cyclical โ€” Rank #74 of 114 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
MCFT43.624.6-22.5%5.3%$379M
MAR76.937.24.3%9.9%$93.0B
ULTA75.526.20.8%10.6%$31.0B
ABNB75.530.110.3%20.5%$81.8B
ORLY73.132.55.7%14.3%$77.0B
HAS73.016.7-17.3%9.3%$14.1B
GTX71.611.83.1%8.6%$4.0B
ROST71.530.73.7%9.9%$66.4B
DPZ71.121.95.1%12.4%$13.7B
CART69.719.911.0%13.5%$9.9B
EBAY69.618.31.7%19.3%$39.7B
GNTX68.314.30.6%17.5%$5.2B
MCRI66.217.24.4%18.6%$1.8B
CASY65.541.07.3%3.4%$25.2B
AMZN65.527.712.4%10.8%$2.2T
TXRH65.227.616.0%8.1%$12.2B
Sector Average47.436.96.3%-6.5%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy10 analysts
Buy: 5Hold: 5
Price Target
$24consensus
Low $21Median $23High $28
+4.9% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

MasterCraft Boat Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and markets recreational powerboats. It operates through three segments: MasterCraft, NauticStar, and Crest. The MasterCraft segment produces recreational performance sport boats and luxury day boats under the MasterCraft and Aviara brands, which are used for water skiing, wakeboarding, and wake surfing, as well as general recreational boating. The NauticStar segment offers boats that are primarily used for saltwater fishing and general recreational boating. The Crest segment produces pontoon boats for use in general recreational boating. The company also offers ski/wake, outboard, and sterndrive boats, as well as various accessories, including trailers and aftermarket parts. It sells its boats under the MasterCraft, NauticStar, Crest, and Aviara brands through a network of independent dealers in North America and internationally. The company was formerly known as MCBC Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to MasterCraft Boat Holdings, Inc. in November 2018. MasterCraft Boat Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1968 and is based in Vonore, Tennessee.

CEO
Bradley Nelson
Employees
920
Beta
1.07
Industry
Auto - Recreational Vehicles
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
28.9
Oversold
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-14.5%
High: $26.49
From 52W Low
+57.3%
Low: $14.39
Moving Averages
10-Day
$23.20
Below
20-Day
$23.30
Below
50-Day
$21.60
Above
200-Day
$20.30
Above
60-Day Support
$18
60-Day Resistance
$26.49
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 72/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+11.5%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+6.38%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.01x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
37
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2025Q3 2025
Revenue$72M$69M$80M$76M
Gross Profit$15M$15M$18M$16M
Operating Income$3M$4M$6M$4M
Net Income$3M$4M$6M$4M
EPS (Diluted)$0.15$0.22$0.34$0.23
Gross Margin21.0%22.3%23.2%20.8%
Operating Margin3.9%5.5%7.5%5.4%
Net Margin3.5%5.3%7.2%4.9%

Why This Stock

Consumer CyclicalP/E ratio of 24.6Valuation below sector median (P/E 24.6)

Tradability FilterGrade D โ€” 34/100Score impact: -11.5pt

Low Tradability Warning

This stock has limited trading volume and/or float. Institutional investors may face difficulty entering or exiting positions without significant price impact. A post-hoc penalty has been applied to the composite score (this is not a backtested model factor โ€” it is a practical tradability overlay).

Volume
27
131K avg/day
Dollar Vol
25
$3M/day
Float
36
16M shares
Mkt Cap
17
$379M
Range
100
84% spread
Composite Liquidity Score34/100
FDCBA
low volumelow dollar volumelow floatsmall cap

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$23.61$33.6335%Wide
2022$18.49$29.6946.5%Wide
2023$19.25$35.2958.8%Wide
2024$16.12$24.0539.5%Wide
2025$14.39$23.9449.8%Wide
3-Year Range
84.1%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.3x dampening
severe revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
96.4%
Outstanding Shares
16M
Bid-Ask Spread
84.0%
Institutional Tradable
No

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.