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KDK

๐Ÿ’ป Technology

Kodiak AI, Inc. Common Stock

Conservative #1375Aggressive #1380Moderate Risk
$8.30+5.46%
Day High$8.44
Day Low$7.80
Volume0.6M
Mkt Cap$1.5B
52W Low $552W High $11
Market Cap
$1.6B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
-11.9%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
-22.0%
Profit Margin
-5395.5%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
10.77

Why This Score

KDK scores 9.4 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 225.3% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (20.0%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 10.77) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Net penalties of -14.8 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, KDK would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score9.4
Fundamental Score25.4
ML Score1.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
5.6
6 Month
6.3
Primary
1 Year
6.6

Quality Assessment

D
Quality Grade
Below average quality โ€” weak profitability or high leverage
2 quality flags detected โ€” see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
Negative ROIC (-52.5%) with high ROE (225.3%) โ€” capital structure distortion (possibly negative equity or one-time gain)
Extreme leverage: D/E ratio of 10.8x โ€” balance sheet risk
Speculative Classification
Anomalous margin data โ€” extreme values suggest one-time events or accounting irregularities.
Conservative score reduced by 4 points.

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
4%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
50
Basing
Sentiment (2.5%)
71
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
75
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
76
Grade B
Base
14.5
SHAP
-2.6
Factors
-1.1
Divergence
-1.4
Final
9.4
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

29AVG
Value50
Quality33
Growth12
Stability40
Investment11

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)41.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)52.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)87.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage72%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-32.5% to -20.5%
Medium-term
-44.4% to -28.4%
Long-term
-57.2% to -33.8%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 1

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score75.0/100
Target Upside+115.5%
Coverage1 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score71.3/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage1 โ€” Basing
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+0.0%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (0.00)
Relative Strength vs Sector-3.6%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.0)
Momentum Quality+0.000
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
2%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P4
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P56
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P3
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
-0.5ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
YES
Below-sector growth + cheap PE

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 25 relative to sector peers25/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 1th percentileP1
Blended score: 80% fundamental (25) + 20% ML (1) = 20.520.5
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.2%Low
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade D
Divergence penalty: -1.4pt (ML 24pt lower)Divergence
Risk Factors
Quality concern: Negative ROIC (-52.5%) with high ROE (225.3%) โ€” capital structure distortion (possibly negative equity or one-time gain); Extreme leverage: D/E ratio of 10.8x โ€” balance sheet riskFlag
Speculative: ANOMALY_MARGIN (4.0pt penalty)Speculative
Liquidity penalty: -2.0pt (grade B)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology โ€” Rank #284 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
KDK9.4N/A-11.9%-5395.5%$1.6B
MPWR85.191.721.2%81.0%$56.6B
ZM84.518.03.1%21.7%$22.4B
NVDA80.745.2114.2%55.8%$4.6T
CRUS80.319.16.0%17.5%$7.3B
CSCO78.027.65.3%18.0%$311.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$566.0B
RMBS77.748.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
IDCC77.731.8-4.0%48.8%$9.6B
ADI75.674.116.9%20.6%$173.8B
FSLR75.317.326.7%30.7%$22.3B
SIMO74.59.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
AAPL74.433.16.4%27.0%$4.0T
DBX74.013.91.9%17.7%$6.7B
LRCX73.948.323.7%29.1%$295.9B
TER73.790.95.4%19.2%$53.1B
Sector Average48.149.814.8%-110.0%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy1 analysts
Buy: 1
Price Target
$17consensus
Low $13Median $17High $22
+108.8% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Kodiak AI, Inc. develops a technology software. The Company offers AI-powered ground autonomy solutions for vehicles to navigate highways, surface streets, and off-road terrain through multi-sensor architecture transportation technology for trucking, defense, and industrial industries.

CEO
Don Burnette
Employees
271
Beta
-0.40
Industry
Software - Application
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
43.3
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-26.9%
High: $11.35
From 52W Low
+52.9%
Low: $5.43
Moving Averages
10-Day
$8.40
Below
20-Day
$8.70
Below
50-Day
$9.30
Below
200-Day
N/A
60-Day Support
$5.43
60-Day Resistance
$11.35

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$770,000$503,000$1M$7M
Gross Profit$-130,000$503,000$1M$7M
Operating Income$-30M$-25M$-19M$-14M
Net Income$-270M$-114M$-128M$-17M
EPS (Diluted)$-3.89$-0.71$-0.71$-0.19
Gross Margin-16.9%100.0%100.0%100.0%
Operating Margin-3892.1%-5039.2%-1264.4%-196.1%
Net Margin-35056.5%-22609.5%-8714.1%-237.5%

Why This Stock

Technology

Tradability FilterGrade B โ€” 76/100Score impact: -19.3pt

Volume
90
739K avg/day
Dollar Vol
52
$6M/day
Float
93
81M shares
Mkt Cap
49
$1.6B
Range
100
109% spread
Composite Liquidity Score76/100
FDCBA

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.35x dampening
weinstein basingrevenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
45.0%
Outstanding Shares
181M
Bid-Ask Spread
109.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.