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23

AMPL

💻 Technology

Amplitude, Inc.

Conservative #1259Aggressive #1217Moderate RiskLow 37ML↑ 32pt
$6.66-2.49%
Day High$6.86
Day Low$6.45
Volume3.6M
Mkt Cap$890M
52W Low $652W High $14
Market Cap
$946M
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
14.7%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
6.1%
Profit Margin
-25.8%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
0.03

Why This Score

AMPL scores 23.3 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.03) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Above-average volatility (16.1%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Net penalties of -11.3 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, AMPL would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score23.3
Fundamental Score31.2
ML Score19.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
69.7
6 Month
77.8
Primary
1 Year
81.9

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
58
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
69
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
79
Grade B
Base
30.0
SHAP
-3.4
Factors
+1.2
Conviction
-1.3
Divergence
-3.2
Final
23.3
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)56.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)25.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)82.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+3.4% to +8.5%
Medium-term
+5.8% to +13.6%
Long-term
+8.9% to +19.6%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 19

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score68.8/100
Target Upside+81.5%
Coverage12 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score57.5/100
News Volume0 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum-0.5%
6M Momentum-0.4%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-5.1%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.90)
Relative Strength vs Sector-53.2%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (3.1)
Momentum Quality-0.254
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
12%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P60
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P78
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P38
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
+0.1σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 50 relative to sector peers50/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 82th percentileP82
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: -3.4pt (features diverge from model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (50.4) + 9% ML (79.7) + SHAP(-3.4) = 49.6—
Factor quality: +1.2pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 16.1%. Max drawdown 49% (-12.0 pts). Price momentum -50% (-8.9 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: -15.0 points ($0.9B market cap)-15.0 pts
Conviction penalty: -1.2pt (conviction=37)—
Divergence penalty: -3.2pt (ML 32pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (133.7%) — earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology — Rank #267 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
AMPL23.3N/A14.7%-25.8%$946M
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
Sector Average47.487.814.8%-110.0%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy12 analysts
Buy: 9Hold: 3
Price Target
$12consensus
Low $10Median $11High $16
+80.2% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Amplitude, Inc. provides a digital optimization system to analyze customer behavior within digital products in the United States and internationally. It offers Amplitude analytics for insights of customer behavior; Amplitude Recommend, a no-code personalization solution that helps to increase customer engagement by adapting digital products and campaigns to every user based on behavior; Amplitude Experiment, an integrated solution that enables teams to determine and deliver the product experiences for their customers through A/B tests and controlled feature releases; Amplitude Behavioral Graph, a proprietary database for deep, real-time interactive behavioral analysis, and behavior-driven personalization – instantly joining, analyzing, and correlating any customer actions to outcomes, such as engagement, growth, and loyalty; and data management, a real-time data layer for planning, integrating, and managing data sources to create a foundation with identity resolution, enterprise-level security, and privacy solutions. The company also provides customer support services related to initial implementation setup, ongoing support, and application training. It delivers its application over the Internet as a subscription service using a software-as-a-service model. The company was formerly known as Sonalight, Inc. and changed its name to Amplitude, Inc. in December 2014. Amplitude, Inc. was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.

CEO
Spenser Skates
Employees
740
Beta
1.49
Industry
Software - Application
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
34.4
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-54%
High: $14.49
From 52W Low
+11%
Low: $6
Moving Averages
10-Day
$6.70
Below
20-Day
$7.50
Below
50-Day
$9.60
Below
200-Day
$10.90
Below
60-Day Support
$6
60-Day Resistance
$12.05
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 6/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-38.9%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-2.45%
Falling
Volume Ratio
2x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
32
Confidence: 90%
Recent Gap Down

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$91M$89M$83M$80M
Gross Profit$68M$65M$60M$60M
Operating Income$-19M$-26M$-27M$-24M
Net Income$-18M$-24M$-25M$-22M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.13$-0.18$-0.19$-0.17
Gross Margin74.6%73.9%72.6%74.7%
Operating Margin-20.8%-29.0%-32.5%-30.3%
Net Margin-19.3%-27.1%-29.6%-27.8%

Why This Stock

TechnologyRevenue growth 14.7%Valuation below sector median

Tradability FilterGrade B — 79/100Score impact: -16.1pt

Volume
100
1.4M avg/day
Dollar Vol
58
$9M/day
Float
96
90M shares
Mkt Cap
37
$946M
Range
100
142% spread
Composite Liquidity Score79/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2022$10.51$53.73134.6%Wide
2023$8.50$16.9566.4%Wide
2024$7.37$14.4264.7%Wide
2025$7.55$14.8865.4%Wide
3-Year Range
78.8%
Narrow Years
0 / 4
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
67.5%
Outstanding Shares
134M
Bid-Ask Spread
142.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.