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32

PRCH

💻 Technology

Porch Group, Inc.

Conservative #1048Aggressive #1124High RiskModerate 64ML↑ 18pt
$7.48+1.63%
Day High$7.58
Day Low$7.21
Volume1.9M
Mkt Cap$788M
52W Low $452W High $19
Market Cap
$848M
P/E Ratio
191.6
Sector avg: 87.8
Rev Growth
10.2%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
146.7%
Profit Margin
1.0%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
N/A

Why This Score

PRCH scores 32.4 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E -15.96) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (20%) — steady appreciation without overheating.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Elevated valuation at 191.6x earnings — requires sustained growth to justify the premium.
  • Above-average volatility (24.5%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Moderate penalties (-5.5 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score32.4
Fundamental Score41.7
ML Score3.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
70.0
6 Month
78.3
Primary
1 Year
82.4

Quality Assessment

C
Earnings Grade
Mixed fundamentals, potential quality issues
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (-782.9%) — earnings quality concern

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
3.3%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
78
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
73
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
79
Grade B
Base
31.9
SHAP
+2.7
Factors
+1.3
Divergence
-3.5
Final
32.4
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)48.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)28.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)88.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-5.2% to +1.2%
Medium-term
-7.8% to +1.8%
Long-term
-10.4% to +2.4%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 3

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score73.1/100
Target Upside+165.4%
Coverage13 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score77.8/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum+0.2%
6M Momentum-0.5%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+70.3%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.39)
Relative Strength vs Sector+16.0%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.8)
Momentum Quality+0.091
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
1%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P49
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P4
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P58
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
-0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 65 relative to sector peers65/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 83th percentileP83
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.0pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (64.6) + 9% ML (80.3) + SHAP(+3.0) = 69.0—
Factor quality: +1.4pt (multi-factor composite)—
Market cap adjustment: -15.0 points ($0.8B market cap)-15.0 pts
Divergence penalty: -1.1pt (ML 18pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Risk assessment: high. Annualized volatility 24.5%. Max drawdown 54% (-12.0 pts)High
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by -16 pointsGrade C
Quality concern: Earnings growth (147%) far exceeds revenue growth (10.2%) — margin expansion may not be sustainable; High accrual ratio (-782.9%) — earnings quality concern; R&D-adjusted ROIC: 2.5% (original: 2.8%). Software - Application has ~20% R&D intensity. Capitalizing R&D over 5 years increases invested capital by ~50%.Flag

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology — Rank #237 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
PRCH32.4191.610.2%1.0%$848M
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
Sector Average47.487.814.8%-110.0%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy13 analysts
Buy: 12Hold: 1
Price Target
$20consensus
Low $20Median $20High $20
+167.4% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Porch Group, Inc. operates a software platform in the United States and Canada. The company operates through two segments, Vertical Software and Insurance. The Vertical Software segment provides software and services to home services companies and gives early access to homebuyers and homeowners. It offers services to home services companies, such as home inspectors, consumers, such as homebuyers and homeowners, service providers, such as moving, insurance, warranty, and security companies, and TV/Internet providers. This segment operates through Floify, HireAHelper, ISN, iRoofing, Palm-Tech, Porch.com, Rynoh, and V12 brands. The Insurance segment offers property related insurance policies through our own risk-bearing carrier and independent agency as well as risk-bearing home warranty company. This segment operates though American Home Protect, Elite Insurance Group, and Homeowners of America brands. In addition, the company provides property and casualty, home, auto, flood, and umbrella insurance products; and contractor services. The company was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Seattle, Washington.

CEO
Matthew Ehrlichman
Employees
729
Beta
3.04
Industry
Software - Application
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
56.8
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-61.5%
High: $19.44
From 52W Low
+101.1%
Low: $3.72
Moving Averages
10-Day
$8.10
Below
20-Day
$7.70
Below
50-Day
$8.50
Below
200-Day
$12.10
Below
60-Day Support
$6.36
60-Day Resistance
$10.85
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 20/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-38.2%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+6.78%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.59x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
75
Confidence: 40%
Recent Gap Up

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$124M$118M$119M$105M
Gross Profit$96M$87M$76M$65M
Operating Income$16M$16M$5M$-1M
Net Income$4M$-11M$3M$8M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.03$-0.10$0.02$0.07
Gross Margin77.0%73.6%63.6%62.5%
Operating Margin13.2%13.8%4.2%-1.2%
Net Margin3.5%-9.2%2.2%8.0%

Why This Stock

TechnologyRevenue growth 10.2%Valuation below sector median (P/E 191.6)

Tradability FilterGrade B — 79/100Score impact: -2.4pt

Volume
100
1.6M avg/day
Dollar Vol
64
$12M/day
Float
88
70M shares
Mkt Cap
36
$848M
Range
100
422% spread
Composite Liquidity Score79/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$11.74$27.5080.4%Wide
2022$0.94$16.26178.1%Wide
2023$0.50$3.99155.9%Wide
2024$1.05$6.04140.8%Wide
2025$3.72$19.44135.8%Wide
3-Year Range
190.1%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.15x dampening
weinstein declining

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
66.7%
Outstanding Shares
105M
Bid-Ask Spread
422.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.