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38

FSLY

💻 Technology

Fastly, Inc.

Conservative #910Aggressive #135Moderate RiskModerate 65ML↑ 18pt
$18.15+2.72%
Day High$18.56
Day Low$17.61
Volume7.9M
Mkt Cap$2.7B
52W Low $552W High $20
Market Cap
$2.7B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
14.8%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
23.0%
Profit Margin
-19.5%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
0.46

Why This Score

FSLY scores 38.0 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Risk Factors
  • Momentum reversion risk: Extreme momentum (168%) increases mean-reversion probability. 3-point penalty applied.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (30.1%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Moderate penalties (-9.2 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score38.0
Fundamental Score37.0
ML Score73.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
56.0
6 Month
62.6
Primary
1 Year
66.0

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns
Speculative Classification
Speculative growth — negative margins and ROE with momentum-driven price action. High risk of mean reversion.
Conservative score reduced by 3 points.

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
2.7%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
52
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
56
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
94
Grade A
Base
38.3
SHAP
+1.8
Factors
+1.1
Divergence
-3.1
Final
38.0
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)58.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)80.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)52.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+0.1% to +4.5%
Medium-term
+1.1% to +7.8%
Long-term
+2.0% to +11.1%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 73

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score55.9/100
Target Upside-23.6%
Coverage17 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score52.4/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+1.7%
6M Momentum+1.4%
Volatility+0.3%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+28.2%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.83)
Relative Strength vs Sector+164.5%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+1.334
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
10%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P61
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P78
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P33
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
+0.1σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 48 relative to sector peers48/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 66th percentileP66
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +1.8pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (48.2) + 9% ML (63.9) + SHAP(+1.8) = 51.4—
Factor quality: +1.1pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 30.1%. Max drawdown 21% (-5.1 pts)Moderate
Momentum mean-reversion: -4.4pt (168% 12m momentum)—
Market cap adjustment: -4.0 points ($2.7B market cap)-4.0 pts
Divergence penalty: -1.0pt (ML 18pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (177.6%) — earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology — Rank #204 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
FSLY38.0N/A14.8%-19.5%$2.7B
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
Sector Average47.487.814.8%-110.0%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Hold17 analysts
Buy: 5Hold: 11Sell: 1
Price Target
$13consensus
Low $12Median $14High $14
-27.0% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Fastly, Inc. operates an edge cloud platform for processing, serving, and securing its customer's applications in the United States, the Asia Pacific, Europe, and internationally. The edge cloud is a category of Infrastructure as a Service that enables developers to build, secure, and deliver digital experiences at the edge of the internet. It is a programmable platform designed for web and application delivery. The company offers Compute@Edge; developer hub that includes solution library patterns and recipes, API and language references, change logs, and Fastly Fiddle solutions; device detection and geolocation, edge dictionaries, edge access control lists, and edge authentication services; full site delivery services, such as dynamic site acceleration, origin shield, instant purge, surrogate keys, real-time logging and stats, cloud optimizer, programmatic control, edge databases, content compression, reliability, and modern protocols and performance services; and streaming solutions and services, including live streaming, media shield, and origin connect. It also provides edge security solutions, such as DDoS protection and cloud, edge web application firewall (WAF), transport layer security (TLS), platform TLS, and compliance services; unified web application and API protection solutions that includes runtime self-application protection, advanced rate limiting, API and ATO protection, account takeover protection, bot protection, and next generation WAF. In addition, the company offers edge applications, such as load balancers and image optimizers; video on demand; and managed edge delivery services. It serves customers operating in digital publishing, media and entertainment, technology, online retail, travel and hospitality, and financial services industries. The company was formerly known as SkyCache, Inc. and changed its name to Fastly, Inc. in May 2012. Fastly, Inc. was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.

CEO
Charles Compton
Employees
1,100
Beta
1.08
Industry
Software - Application
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
81.9
Overbought
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-10.5%
High: $20.27
From 52W Low
+290.3%
Low: $4.65
Moving Averages
10-Day
$16.90
Above
20-Day
$12.90
Above
50-Day
$11.10
Above
200-Day
$8.90
Above
60-Day Support
$7.87
60-Day Resistance
$20.27
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 90/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+103.9%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+18.4%
Rising
Volume Ratio
3.54x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
13
Confidence: 90%
Breakout Volume ConfirmedRecent Gap UpRecent Gap Down

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$173M$158M$149M$144M
Gross Profit$106M$92M$76M$77M
Operating Income$-15M$-29M$-37M$-38M
Net Income$-16M$-29M$-38M$-39M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.10$-0.20$-0.26$-0.27
Gross Margin61.4%58.4%51.3%53.2%
Operating Margin-8.6%-18.2%-24.6%-26.4%
Net Margin-9.0%-18.6%-25.2%-27.1%

Why This Stock

TechnologyRevenue growth 14.8%

Tradability FilterGrade A — 94/100Score impact: -27.0pt

Volume
100
6.9M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$118M/day
Float
100
140M shares
Mkt Cap
61
$2.7B
Range
100
336% spread
Composite Liquidity Score94/100
FDCBA
Free Float
94.0%
Outstanding Shares
149M
Bid-Ask Spread
336.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.