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JBIO

๐Ÿฅ Healthcare

Jade Biosciences, Inc.

Conservative #1357Aggressive #1292High RiskFโ†‘ 50pt
$14.83+1.85%
Day High$14.91
Day Low$14.01
Volume0.4M
Mkt Cap$484M
52W Low $752W High $100
Market Cap
$466M
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
0.0%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
7.8%
Profit Margin
0.0%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.00

Why This Score

JBIO scores 12.9 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.00) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 5-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (32.1%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Net penalties of -16.9 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, JBIO would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score12.9
Fundamental Score28.0
ML Score3.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
5.2
6 Month
5.8
Primary
1 Year
6.1

Quality Assessment

F
Quality Grade
Low quality โ€” significant fundamental weaknesses
1 quality flag detected โ€” see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
Pipeline concentration: $0.5B biotech/pharma โ€” likely single-product revenue with binary risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
2.5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
60
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
75
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
53
Grade Clow dollar volume, small cap
Base
18.0
SHAP
+1.6
Factors
-0.4
Conviction
-4.8
Divergence
-1.5
Final
12.9
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

31AVG
Value50
Quality7
Growth46
Stability40
Investment10

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)52.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)37.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)84.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-19.7% to -11.4%
Medium-term
-26.6% to -14.9%
Long-term
-33.5% to -18.4%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 3

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score75.0/100
Target Upside+89.0%
Coverage2 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score60.0/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum-0.8%
6M Momentum+0.9%
Volatility+0.3%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-172.1%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.91)
Relative Strength vs Sector-106.3%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (2.5)
Momentum Quality-0.069
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
4%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P41
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P22
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P30
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
-0.0ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 28 relative to sector peers28/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 3th percentileP3
Blended score: 80% fundamental (28) + 20% ML (3) = 23.023.0
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.3%; Drawdown 92% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade F: quality flags triggered โ€” see details below. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade F
SHAP feature alignment: +1.6pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: -4.8pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Divergence penalty: -1.5pt (ML 25pt lower)Divergence
Risk Factors
Quality concern: Pipeline concentration: $0.5B biotech/pharma โ€” likely single-product revenue with binary riskFlag
Liquidity penalty: -5.0pt (grade C)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare โ€” Rank #317 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
JBIO12.9N/A0.0%0.0%$466M
INCY89.915.821.2%25.0%$20.2B
GMAB86.113.122.8%36.4%$18.1B
CPRX83.713.723.5%37.6%$2.9B
ASND78.316.698.0%-31.7%$14.0B
EXEL78.315.17.0%33.7%$11.9B
VRTX78.232.18.9%32.9%$125.2B
NBIX75.126.521.4%16.7%$13.3B
RPRX75.025.15.1%32.4%$19.8B
HOLX74.831.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
AMGN74.226.010.0%21.0%$210.2B
ARGX73.735.178.6%38.0%$48.0B
REGN73.019.41.0%31.4%$81.3B
ALKS72.916.5-6.4%23.9%$5.0B
ISRG72.761.720.5%28.4%$177.8B
KRYS71.541.4473.0%30.7%$8.0B
Sector Average36.641.9161.5%-3292.7%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy2 analysts
Buy: 2
Price Target
$27consensus
Low $25Median $27High $28
+78.7% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Jade Biosciences, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing best-in-class therapies to address critical unmet needs in autoimmune diseases. Their lead asset, JADE-001, targets the anti-A PRoliferation-Inducing Ligand (APRIL) pathway for the treatment of immunoglobulin A (IgA) nephropathy. JADE-001 is anticipated to enter clinical trials in the second half of 2025, with initial data expected in the first half of 2026. The company's pipeline also includes two preclinical antibody programs, JADE-002 and JADE-003.

CEO
Tom Frohlich
Employees
50
Beta
1.03
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
45.4
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-85.2%
High: $100.1
From 52W Low
+125.7%
Low: $6.57
Moving Averages
10-Day
$14.40
Above
20-Day
$14.90
Below
50-Day
$15.10
Below
200-Day
$10.60
Above
60-Day Support
$11.32
60-Day Resistance
$17.71
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 75/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+39.9%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-63.24%
Falling
Volume Ratio
0.75x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
23
Confidence: 40%

Entry & Exit Zones

Below Entry Zone
$10.08
Stop Entry Now Target
$103.10
Entry Zone
$14.95 โ€“ $15.55
SMA50 pullback zone ($14.95โ€“$15.55)
Exit Target
$100.10
52-week high / +22% target ($100.1)
Stop Level
$10.39
Below SMA200 ($10.39)
Risk / Reward:1 : 17.46Favorable

Stage 2 uptrend โ€” institutional accumulation phase. SMA50 pullbacks are the highest-probability entry points. Stop below SMA200 preserves capital if trend breaks.

Technical zones only โ€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$0$0$0$0
Gross Profit$-12,000$-1,000$-4,000$-8,000
Operating Income$-27M$-28M$-3M$-6M
Net Income$-25M$-32M$-3M$-5M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.64$-1.13$-3.04$-6.56
Gross MarginN/AN/AN/AN/A
Operating MarginN/AN/AN/AN/A
Net MarginN/AN/AN/AN/A

Why This Stock

Healthcare

Tradability FilterGrade C โ€” 53/100Score impact: -18.2pt

Volume
61
305K avg/day
Dollar Vol
41
$4M/day
Float
54
24M shares
Mkt Cap
26
$466M
Range
100
1425% spread
Composite Liquidity Score53/100
FDCBA
low dollar volumesmall cap

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
74.4%
Outstanding Shares
33M
Bid-Ask Spread
1425.0%
Institutional Tradable
Limited

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.