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KYTX

๐Ÿฅ Healthcare

Kyverna Therapeutics, Inc.

Conservative #1085Aggressive #785Moderate RiskFโ†‘ 27pt
$8.12+0.37%
Day High$8.12
Day Low$7.83
Volume0.4M
Mkt Cap$356M
52W Low $252W High $14
Market Cap
$348M
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
0.0%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
-111.2%
Profit Margin
0.0%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.03

Why This Score

KYTX scores 29.8 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.03) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
Risk Factors
  • Momentum reversion risk: Extreme momentum (156%) increases mean-reversion probability. 3-point penalty applied.
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Above-average volatility (22.2%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Net penalties of -10.4 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, KYTX would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score29.8
Fundamental Score36.1
ML Score46.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
6.0
6 Month
6.8
Primary
1 Year
7.1

Quality Assessment

F
Quality Grade
Low quality โ€” significant fundamental weaknesses
1 quality flag detected โ€” see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
Pipeline concentration: $0.3B biotech/pharma โ€” likely single-product revenue with binary risk
Speculative Classification
Speculative micro-cap โ€” no earnings, sub-$2B market cap, momentum-driven. Position sizing should reflect elevated risk.
Conservative score reduced by 3 points.

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
3.6%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
90
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
75
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
68
Grade Blow float, small cap
Base
30.1
SHAP
+0.9
Factors
-0.8
Conviction
-0.4
Final
29.8
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

31AVG
Value50
Quality7
Growth20
Stability69
Investment10

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)42.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)82.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)91.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-17.4% to -9.9%
Medium-term
-23.9% to -13.1%
Long-term
-30.1% to -16.2%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 46

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score75.0/100
Target Upside+273.4%
Coverage4 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score90.0/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+1.6%
6M Momentum+1.0%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+59.9%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.61)
Relative Strength vs Sector+131.2%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+1.202
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
0%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P41
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P22
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P1
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
-0.0ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 36 relative to sector peers36/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 46th percentileP46
Blended score: 80% fundamental (36) + 20% ML (46) = 38.138.1
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.2%; Drawdown 23% โ†’ 0.0pt; Positive momentum 156% โ†’ -3.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade F: quality flags triggered โ€” see details below. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade F
SHAP feature alignment: +0.9pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: -0.4pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Risk Factors
Quality concern: Pipeline concentration: $0.3B biotech/pharma โ€” likely single-product revenue with binary riskFlag
Speculative: SPEC_MICRO (3.0pt penalty)Speculative
Liquidity penalty: -2.0pt (grade B)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare โ€” Rank #200 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
KYTX29.8N/A0.0%0.0%$348M
INCY89.915.821.2%25.0%$19.6B
GMAB86.113.122.8%36.4%$17.9B
CPRX83.713.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
ASND78.316.698.0%-31.7%$13.8B
EXEL78.315.17.0%33.7%$11.9B
VRTX78.232.18.9%32.9%$121.8B
NBIX75.126.521.4%16.7%$13.1B
RPRX75.025.15.1%32.4%$19.3B
HOLX74.831.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
AMGN74.226.010.0%21.0%$204.8B
ARGX73.735.178.6%38.0%$47.4B
REGN73.019.41.0%31.4%$80.2B
ALKS72.916.5-6.4%23.9%$5.0B
ISRG72.761.720.5%28.4%$180.9B
KRYS71.541.4473.0%30.7%$7.9B
Sector Average36.641.9161.5%-3292.7%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy4 analysts
Buy: 4
Price Target
$30consensus
Low $20Median $33High $33
+263.3% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Kyverna Therapeutics, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on developing cell therapies for patients suffering from autoimmune diseases. Its lead product candidate is KYV-101, an autologous CD19 CAR T-cell product candidate for the treatment of patients with lupus nephritis and systemic sclerosis that is in Phase I clinical trial; and for myasthenia gravis and multiple sclerosis that is in Phase II clinical trial. The company is also developing KYV-201, an allogeneic CD19 CAR T-cell product candidate that is in preclinical stage to treat multiple autoimmune diseases. In addition, it is developing product candidates to treat other autoimmune diseases, such as inflammatory bowel disease that includes Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis. Kyverna Therapeutics, Inc. has a license and collaboration agreement with Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. to research and develop an allogeneic CD19-directed CAR cell therapy product; and with Kite to research and develop programs for the treatment, diagnosis, and prevention of autoimmune, inflammatory, and allogeneic stem cell transplant inflammatory diseases. The company was formerly known as BAIT Therapeutics, Inc. and changed its name to Kyverna Therapeutics, Inc. in October 2019. Kyverna Therapeutics, Inc. was incorporated in 2018 and is headquartered in Emeryville, California.

CEO
Warner Biddle
Employees
112
Beta
3.48
Industry
Biotechnology
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
62.8
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-40.6%
High: $13.67
From 52W Low
+356.2%
Low: $1.78
Moving Averages
10-Day
$7.80
Above
20-Day
$7.80
Above
50-Day
$8.40
Below
200-Day
$5.70
Above
60-Day Support
$6.45
60-Day Resistance
$13.67
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 90/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+42.5%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+45.76%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.29x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$0$0$0$0
Gross Profit$-415,000$-515,000$-501,000$-563,000
Operating Income$-39M$-44M$-47M$-41M
Net Income$-37M$-42M$-45M$-37M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.85$-0.97$-1.03$-0.87
Gross MarginN/AN/AN/AN/A
Operating MarginN/AN/AN/AN/A
Net MarginN/AN/AN/AN/A

Why This Stock

Healthcare

Tradability FilterGrade B โ€” 68/100Score impact: -43.1pt

Volume
100
1.5M avg/day
Dollar Vol
64
$12M/day
Float
49
20M shares
Mkt Cap
15
$348M
Range
100
668% spread
Composite Liquidity Score68/100
FDCBA
low floatsmall cap

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2024$3.54$35.06163.3%Wide
2025$1.78$13.67153.9%Wide
3-Year Range
180.7%
Narrow Years
0 / 2
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
45.3%
Outstanding Shares
44M
Bid-Ask Spread
668.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.