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55

BSRR

๐Ÿฆ Financial Services

Sierra Bancorp

Conservative #472Aggressive #718Low RiskMLโ†‘ 38pt
$37.28+0.35%
Day High$37.99
Day Low$37.00
Volume0.1M
Mkt Cap$503M
52W Low $2252W High $39
Market Cap
$503M
P/E Ratio
11.8
Sector avg: 26.8
Rev Growth
5.7%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
4.4%
Profit Margin
21.7%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
1.42

Why This Score

BSRR scores 55.5 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High net margin of 21.7%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Attractively valued at 11.8x earnings, below the market average.
  • Low volatility (5.8% annualized) โ€” well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (27%) โ€” steady appreciation without overheating.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 15-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 1.42) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Net penalties of -15.0 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, BSRR would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score55.5
Fundamental Score64.9
ML Score73.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
66.0
6 Month
73.7
Primary
1 Year
77.6

Quality Assessment

C
Quality Grade
Average quality โ€” moderate profitability or leverage

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
58
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
53
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
23
Grade Dlow volume, low dollar volume
Base
51.5
SHAP
+3.3
Factors
+0.7
Final
55.5
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

60AVG
Value84
Quality49
Growth49
Stability74
Investment46

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)60.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)86.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)78.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-0.9% to +3.2%
Medium-term
-0.7% to +5.7%
Long-term
-0.4% to +8.1%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 73

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score52.8/100
Target Upside+21.4%
Coverage9 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score57.8/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+0.3%
6M Momentum+0.2%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+1.9%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.93)
Relative Strength vs Sector+17.6%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (4.6)
Momentum Quality+0.251
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
12%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P55
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P69
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P39
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 65 relative to sector peers65/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 73th percentileP73
Blended score: 80% fundamental (65) + 20% ML (73) = 66.566.5
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 5% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade C
SHAP feature alignment: +3.3pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Risk Factors
Liquidity penalty: -15.0pt (grade D)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services โ€” Rank #155 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
BSRR55.511.85.7%21.7%$503M
CME86.427.29.9%57.5%$112.1B
FHB84.911.83.2%24.2%$3.2B
ACT84.58.92.4%54.6%$6.1B
CINF84.210.711.4%18.9%$25.8B
SEIC82.214.010.7%27.3%$10.1B
TROW79.910.13.1%28.5%$21.1B
QQQX79.710.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
IBOC78.210.67.5%40.1%$4.4B
HWC77.812.2-1.5%24.1%$5.8B
FFIN77.518.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TRMK77.111.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
NMIH77.17.78.4%55.1%$3.1B
EWBC76.712.74.6%28.3%$16.0B
WSFS76.312.8-3.1%21.1%$3.6B
MCHB76.1N/A123.7%23.2%$3.3B
Sector Average47.526.813.4%-2.8%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Sierra Bancorp operates as the bank holding company for Bank of the Sierra that provides retail and commercial banking services to individuals and businesses in California. The company accepts various deposit products, such as checking accounts, savings accounts, money market demand accounts, time deposits, retirement accounts, and sweep accounts. Its loan products include agricultural, commercial, consumer, real estate, construction, and mortgage loans. The company also offers automated teller machines; electronic point-of-sale payment alternatives; online and automated telephone banking services; and remote deposit capture and automated payroll services for business customers. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 35 full-service branches, an online branch, a loan production office, an agricultural credit center, and an SBA center. Sierra Bancorp was founded in 1977 and is headquartered in Porterville, California.

CEO
Kevin J. McPhaill
Employees
489
Beta
0.78
Industry
Banks - Regional
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
45.3
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-3.4%
High: $38.6
From 52W Low
+66.3%
Low: $22.42
Moving Averages
10-Day
$37.10
Above
20-Day
$36.90
Above
50-Day
$35.10
Above
200-Day
$30.90
Above
60-Day Support
$31.09
60-Day Resistance
$38.6
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 65/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+20.6%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+7.17%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.08x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
67
Confidence: 90%
Key Reversal Detected (2026-02-18)

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$51M$50M$49M$46M
Gross Profit$40M$34M$36M$33M
Operating Income$17M$13M$14M$12M
Net Income$13M$10M$11M$9M
EPS (Diluted)$0.97$0.72$0.78$0.65
Gross Margin79.3%68.5%73.0%70.8%
Operating Margin33.9%25.6%29.0%26.7%
Net Margin25.5%19.5%21.7%19.8%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 11.8Profit margin 21.7%

Tradability FilterGrade D โ€” 23/100Score impact: +1.4pt

Low Tradability Warning

This stock has limited trading volume and/or float. Institutional investors may face difficulty entering or exiting positions without significant price impact. A post-hoc penalty has been applied to the composite score (this is not a backtested model factor โ€” it is a practical tradability overlay).

Volume
5
64K avg/day
Dollar Vol
16
$2M/day
Float
20
0K shares
Mkt Cap
29
$503M
Range
96
72% spread
Composite Liquidity Score23/100
FDCBA
low volumelow dollar volumesmall cap

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 6/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$22.40$29.4227.1%Moderate
2022$19.62$28.9238.3%Wide
2023$15.01$23.2142.9%Wide
2024$17.69$35.1366%Wide
2025$22.42$34.7143%Wide
3-Year Range
80.3%
Narrow Years
1 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
72.0%
Institutional Tradable
No

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.