First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.
FWRG scores 28.5 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.
Moderate penalties (-3.7 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.
These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.
| Stock | Score | P/E | Rev Growth | Margin | Mkt Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FWRG | 28.5 | 273.6 | 13.9% | 0.3% | $771M |
| MAR | 76.9 | 37.2 | 4.3% | 9.9% | $93.0B |
| ULTA | 75.5 | 26.2 | 0.8% | 10.6% | $31.0B |
| ABNB | 75.5 | 30.1 | 10.3% | 20.5% | $81.8B |
| ORLY | 73.1 | 32.5 | 5.7% | 14.3% | $77.0B |
| HAS | 73.0 | 16.7 | -17.3% | 9.3% | $14.1B |
| GTX | 71.6 | 11.8 | 3.1% | 8.6% | $4.0B |
| ROST | 71.5 | 30.7 | 3.7% | 9.9% | $66.4B |
| DPZ | 71.1 | 21.9 | 5.1% | 12.4% | $13.7B |
| CART | 69.7 | 19.9 | 11.0% | 13.5% | $9.9B |
| EBAY | 69.6 | 18.3 | 1.7% | 19.3% | $39.7B |
| GNTX | 68.3 | 14.3 | 0.6% | 17.5% | $5.2B |
| MCRI | 66.2 | 17.2 | 4.4% | 18.6% | $1.8B |
| CASY | 65.5 | 41.0 | 7.3% | 3.4% | $25.2B |
| AMZN | 65.5 | 27.7 | 12.4% | 10.8% | $2.2T |
| TXRH | 65.2 | 27.6 | 16.0% | 8.1% | $12.2B |
| Sector Average | 47.4 | 36.9 | 6.3% | -6.5% | โ |
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. operates and franchises restaurants under the First Watch trade name. As of March 23, 2022, it operated 341 company-owned restaurants and 94 franchised restaurants in 28 states in the United States. The company was formerly known as AI Fresh Super Holdco, Inc. and changed its name to First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. in December 2019. First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Bradenton, Florida.
Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.
| Metric | Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $316M | $316M | $308M | $282M |
| Gross Profit | $599M | $68M | $60M | $216M |
| Operating Income | $9M | $10M | $7M | $1M |
| Net Income | $17M | $3M | $2M | $-2M |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.24 | $0.05 | $0.03 | $-0.01 |
| Gross Margin | 189.4% | 21.5% | 19.4% | 76.4% |
| Operating Margin | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 0.4% |
| Net Margin | 5.2% | 0.9% | 0.7% | -0.8% |
| Year | Low | High | Range | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $11.57 | $18.95 | 48.4% | Wide |
| 2023 | $13.32 | $20.95 | 44.5% | Wide |
| 2024 | $12.90 | $25.98 | 67.3% | Wide |
| 2025 | $12.90 | $22.71 | 55.1% | Wide |
Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.
Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.