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21

CBRL

๐Ÿ›๏ธ Consumer Cyclical

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc.

Conservative #1263Aggressive #1162High RiskMLโ†‘ 23pt
$32.36+3.55%
Day High$32.46
Day Low$31.14
Volume1.1M
Mkt Cap$723M
52W Low $2552W High $72
Market Cap
$754M
P/E Ratio
44.5
Sector avg: 36.9
Rev Growth
0.4%
Sector avg: 6.3%
Earnings Growth
13.3%
Profit Margin
0.5%
Sector avg: -6.5%
Debt/Equity
4.23

Why This Score

CBRL scores 21.1 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Risk Factors
  • Elevated valuation at 44.5x earnings โ€” requires sustained growth to justify the premium.
  • Above-average volatility (17.2%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 4.23) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Minor adjustments (0.0 points) applied. CBRL's rank of #1263 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score21.1
Fundamental Score19.2
ML Score9.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
47.5
6 Month
53.1
Primary
1 Year
55.9

Quality Assessment

D
Quality Grade
Below average quality โ€” weak profitability or high leverage
2 quality flags detected โ€” see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (-904.3%) โ€” earnings quality concern
Extreme leverage: D/E ratio of 4.2x โ€” balance sheet risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
4.7%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
28
Negative
Analyst (6.4%)
52
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
80
Grade Alow float
Base
17.1
SHAP
+3.4
Factors
+0.6
Final
21.1
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

46AVG
Value53
Quality24
Growth50
Stability33
Investment69

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)24.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)28.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)45.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-4.5% to -0.1%
Medium-term
-6.6% to -0.1%
Long-term
-8.8% to -0.1%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 9

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score52.4/100
Target Upside-3.1%
Coverage31 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score27.6/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 โ€” Declining
12M Momentum-0.3%
6M Momentum-0.5%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+17.8%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.62)
Relative Strength vs Sector-30.1%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (1.7)
Momentum Quality-0.120
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
2%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P29
Revenue growth vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector PE Rank
P13
Valuation vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector FCF Rank
P19
Free cash flow vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Growth Deviation
-0.2ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 19 relative to sector peers19/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 9th percentileP9
Blended score: 80% fundamental (19) + 20% ML (9) = 17.217.2
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.2%; Drawdown 59% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade D
SHAP feature alignment: +3.4pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Risk Factors
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-904.3%) โ€” earnings quality concern; Extreme leverage: D/E ratio of 4.2x โ€” balance sheet riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Cyclical โ€” Rank #109 of 114 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
CBRL21.144.50.4%0.5%$754M
MAR76.937.24.3%9.9%$93.0B
ULTA75.526.20.8%10.6%$31.0B
ABNB75.530.110.3%20.5%$81.8B
ORLY73.132.55.7%14.3%$77.0B
HAS73.016.7-17.3%9.3%$14.1B
GTX71.611.83.1%8.6%$4.0B
ROST71.530.73.7%9.9%$66.4B
DPZ71.121.95.1%12.4%$13.7B
CART69.719.911.0%13.5%$9.9B
EBAY69.618.31.7%19.3%$39.7B
GNTX68.314.30.6%17.5%$5.2B
MCRI66.217.24.4%18.6%$1.8B
CASY65.541.07.3%3.4%$25.2B
AMZN65.527.712.4%10.8%$2.2T
TXRH65.227.616.0%8.1%$12.2B
Sector Average47.436.96.3%-6.5%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. develops and operates the Cracker Barrel Old Country Store concept in the United States. The company's Cracker Barrel stores consist of a restaurant with a gift shop. Its restaurants serve breakfast, lunch, and dinner, as well as dine-in, pick-up, and delivery services. The company's gift shops comprise various decorative and functional items, such as rocking chairs, seasonal gifts, apparel, toys, cookware, and various other gift items, as well as various candies, preserves, and other food items. As of September 15, 2021, it operated 664 Cracker Barrel stores in 45 states. The company was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Lebanon, Tennessee.

CEO
Julie Felss Masino
Employees
77,600
Beta
1.26
Industry
Restaurants
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
48.1
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-55%
High: $71.93
From 52W Low
+30.2%
Low: $24.85
Moving Averages
10-Day
$32.00
Above
20-Day
$32.10
Above
50-Day
$30.20
Above
200-Day
$44.50
Below
60-Day Support
$24.85
60-Day Resistance
$36.89
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 โ€” DecliningScore: 12/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-27.3%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-7.95%
Falling
Volume Ratio
0.66x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ1 2025Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025
Revenue$797M$868M$821M$949M
Gross Profit$247M$287M$269M$313M
Operating Income$-33M$4M$15M$29M
Net Income$-25M$7M$13M$22M
EPS (Diluted)$-1.10$0.30$0.56$0.99
Gross Margin31.0%33.0%32.8%33.0%
Operating Margin-4.1%0.5%1.8%3.1%
Net Margin-3.1%0.8%1.5%2.3%

Why This Stock

Consumer CyclicalValuation below sector median (P/E 44.5)

Tradability FilterGrade A โ€” 80/100Score impact: -6.7pt

Volume
100
1.8M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$57M/day
Float
50
20M shares
Mkt Cap
34
$754M
Range
100
189% spread
Composite Liquidity Score80/100
FDCBA
low float

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
89.4%
Outstanding Shares
22M
Bid-Ask Spread
189.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.