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38

UPBD

💻 Technology

Upbound Group, Inc.

Conservative #913Aggressive #897Moderate RiskHigh 90
$21.54-0.37%
Day High$21.69
Day Low$21.05
Volume0.6M
Mkt Cap$1.2B
52W Low $1652W High $28
Market Cap
$1.3B
P/E Ratio
17.6
Sector avg: 87.4
Rev Growth
8.7%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
-40.7%
Profit Margin
1.6%
Sector avg: -109.6%
Debt/Equity
2.44

Why This Score

UPBD scores 38.1 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High conviction (90/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Above-average volatility (13.1%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 2.44) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Minor adjustments (-2.0 points) applied. UPBD's rank of #913 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score38.1
Fundamental Score35.1
ML Score40.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
53.8
6 Month
60.1
Primary
1 Year
63.3

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
63
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
70
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
77
Grade B
Base
34.1
SHAP
+1.9
Factors
+0.7
Conviction
+1.4
Final
38.1
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)34.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)46.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)83.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-1.4% to +2.7%
Medium-term
-1.6% to +4.6%
Long-term
-1.8% to +6.5%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 40

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score70.0/100
Target Upside+87.7%
Coverage20 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score63.4/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum-0.2%
6M Momentum-0.2%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+1.3%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.92)
Relative Strength vs Sector-19.2%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (1.2)
Momentum Quality-0.110
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
31%
High risk — cheap + stagnating
Sector RevGr Rank
P45
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P60
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P92
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
-0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 68 relative to sector peers68/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 63th percentileP63
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.1pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (68.2) + 9% ML (63.3) + SHAP(+3.1) = 70.9
Factor quality: +1.1pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 13.1%. Max drawdown 30% (-8.7 pts). Price momentum -16% (-2.1 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: -8.0 points ($1.3B market cap)-8.0 pts
Conviction bonus: +2.4pt (conviction=90)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -8 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-183.5%) — earnings quality concern; High leverage: D/E ratio of 2.4x — elevated balance sheet risk; R&D-adjusted ROIC: 4.1% (original: 4.6%). Software - Application has ~20% R&D intensity. Capitalizing R&D over 5 years increases invested capital by ~50%.Flag

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology — Rank #203 of 290 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
UPBD38.117.68.7%1.6%$1.3B
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
Sector Average47.487.414.8%-109.6%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy20 analysts
Buy: 16Hold: 4
Price Target
$40consensus
Low $33Median $41High $45
+84.2% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Upbound Group, Inc., an omni-channel platform company, leases household durable goods to customers on a lease-to-own basis in the United States, Puerto Rico, and Mexico. The company operates in four segments: Rent-A-Center Business, Acima, Mexico, and Franchising. The company's brands, such as Rent-A-Center and Acima that facilitate consumer transactions across a range of store-based and virtual channels. It offers furniture comprising mattresses, tires, consumer electronics, appliances, tools, handbags, computers, smartphones, and accessories. The company also provides merchandise on an installment sales basis; and the lease-to-own transaction to consumers who do not qualify for financing from the traditional retailer through kiosks located within retailer's locations. It operates retail installment sales stores under the Get It Now and Home Choice names; lease-to-own and franchised lease-to-own stores under the Rent-A-Centre, ColorTyme, and RimTyme names; and company-owned stores and e-commerce platform through rentacenter.com. The company was formerly known as Rent-A-Center, Inc. and changed its name to Upbound Group, Inc. in February 2023. Upbound Group, Inc. was founded in 1960 and is headquartered in Plano, Texas.

CEO
Fahmi Karam
Employees
11,970
Beta
1.86
Industry
Software - Application
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
58.0
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-23.2%
High: $28.03
From 52W Low
+36.2%
Low: $15.82
Moving Averages
10-Day
$21.10
Above
20-Day
$20.40
Above
50-Day
$19.30
Above
200-Day
$22.10
Below
60-Day Support
$17.16
60-Day Resistance
$23.98
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 22/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-2.5%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-6.21%
Falling
Volume Ratio
1.22x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
3
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$1.2B$1.2B$1.2B$1.2B
Gross Profit$421M$563M$572M$550M
Operating Income$57M$53M$51M$63M
Net Income$20M$13M$15M$25M
EPS (Diluted)$0.34$0.22$0.26$0.42
Gross Margin35.1%48.3%49.4%46.8%
Operating Margin4.8%4.5%4.4%5.3%
Net Margin1.7%1.1%1.3%2.1%

Why This Stock

TechnologyP/E ratio of 17.6Valuation below sector median (P/E 17.6)

Tradability FilterGrade B — 77/100Score impact: -16.3pt

Volume
88
710K avg/day
Dollar Vol
70
$15M/day
Float
81
52M shares
Mkt Cap
45
$1.3B
Range
99
77% spread
Composite Liquidity Score77/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$42.25$67.7646.4%Wide
2022$16.82$50.1699.6%Wide
2023$22.08$36.1748.4%Wide
2024$26.50$38.7237.5%Wide
2025$15.82$30.6263.7%Wide
3-Year Range
84%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
90.1%
Outstanding Shares
58M
Bid-Ask Spread
77.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.