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70

FDUS

๐Ÿฆ Financial Services

Fidus Investment Corporation

Conservative #99Aggressive #572Low RiskHigh 100
$18.41-0.65%
Day High$18.60
Day Low$18.34
Volume0.1M
Mkt Cap$671M
52W Low $1752W High $23
Market Cap
$673M
P/E Ratio
8.1
Sector avg: 26.8
Rev Growth
4.7%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
1.5%
Profit Margin
66.6%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.26

Why This Score

FDUS scores 70.1 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High net margin of 66.6%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Attractively valued at 8.1x earnings, below the market average.
  • Low volatility (5.6% annualized) โ€” well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
  • High conviction (100/100) โ€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 5-point penalty for execution risk.

Moderate penalties (-7.9 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score70.1
Fundamental Score74.3
ML Score73.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
69.3
6 Month
77.4
Primary
1 Year
81.5

Quality Assessment

C
Earnings Grade
Mixed fundamentals, potential quality issues
Quality Flags
Low FCF/NI ratio (0.06) with 66.6% net margin โ€” reported earnings may not be cash-backed

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
40
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
63
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
56
Grade Crange bound
Base
66.1
SHAP
+1.9
Factors
+0.5
Conviction
+1.6
Final
70.1
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)71.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)61.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)63.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-2.2% to +4.0%
Medium-term
-3.0% to +6.4%
Long-term
-3.7% to +8.9%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 73

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score62.5/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage12 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score40.0/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 โ€” Declining
12M Momentum-0.1%
6M Momentum-0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-2.4%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.76)
Relative Strength vs Sector-18.9%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (1.8)
Momentum Quality-0.092
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
31%
High risk โ€” cheap + stagnating
Sector RevGr Rank
P51
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P91
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P70
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 79 relative to sector peers79/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 82th percentileP82
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +4.3pt (features align with model priorities)โ€”
Blend: 91% fund (79.0) + 9% ML (81.5) + SHAP(+4.3) = 83.6โ€”
Factor quality: +1.1pt (multi-factor composite)โ€”
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 5.6%. Stability bonus of +10.8 points. Price momentum -10% (-1.0 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: -15.0 points ($0.7B market cap)-15.0 pts
Conviction bonus: +3.6pt (conviction=100)โ€”
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by -12 pointsGrade C
Quality concern: Low FCF/NI ratio (0.06) with 66.6% net margin โ€” reported earnings may not be cash-backed; High accrual ratio (27.2%) โ€” earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services โ€” Rank #25 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
FDUS70.18.14.7%66.6%$673M
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$112.1B
CINF82.410.711.4%18.9%$25.8B
ACT81.98.92.4%54.6%$6.1B
SEIC81.014.010.7%27.3%$10.1B
TROW79.510.13.1%28.5%$21.1B
FHB78.111.83.2%24.2%$3.2B
MCHB77.4N/A123.7%23.2%$3.3B
TRMK75.711.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
BCAL74.49.926.2%27.1%$605M
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.1B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$26.2B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.7B
FFIN73.118.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
VLY72.512.5-2.2%17.1%$7.4B
QQQX72.010.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
Sector Average45.726.813.4%-2.8%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Company Overviewvia FMP

Fidus Investment Corporation is a business development company. It specializing in leveraged buyouts, refinancings, change of ownership transactions, recapitalizations, strategic acquisitions, mezzanine, growth capital, business expansion, lower middle market investments, debt investments, subordinated and second lien loans, senior secured and unitranche debt, preferred equity, warrants, subordinated debt, senior subordinated notes, junior secured loans, and unitranche loans. It does not invest in turnarounds or distressed situations. The fund prefers to invest in aerospace and defense, business services, consumer products and services including retail, food, and beverage, healthcare products and services, industrial products and services, information technology services, niche manufacturing, transportation and logistics, and value-added distribution sectors. It seeks to invest in companies based in United States. The fund typically invests between $5 million and $15 million per transaction in companies with annual revenues between $10 million and $150 million and an annual EBITDA between $3 million and $20 million, but it can occasionally invest in larger or smaller companies. It seeks to acquire minority equity stakes and board observation rights in conjunction with its investments.

CEO
Edward H. Ross
Beta
0.74
Industry
Asset Management
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
42.2
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-21.5%
High: $23.48
From 52W Low
+10.4%
Low: $16.7
Moving Averages
10-Day
$18.60
Below
20-Day
$18.80
Below
50-Day
$19.20
Below
200-Day
$20.20
Below
60-Day Support
$18.12
60-Day Resistance
$20.33
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 โ€” DecliningScore: 22/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-8.8%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-1.64%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
0.84x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
28
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$30M$35M$30M$27M
Gross Profit$23M$28M$24M$21M
Operating Income$20M$25M$22M$19M
Net Income$19M$25M$20M$18M
EPS (Diluted)$0.54$0.72$0.53$0.52
Gross Margin76.7%80.1%79.5%78.9%
Operating Margin67.0%71.7%71.2%70.9%
Net Margin64.3%71.2%65.0%64.6%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 8.1Profit margin 66.6%

Tradability FilterGrade C โ€” 56/100Score impact: +7.0pt

Volume
58
283K avg/day
Dollar Vol
50
$5M/day
Float
66
36M shares
Mkt Cap
33
$673M
Range
80
41% spread
Composite Liquidity Score56/100
FDCBA
range bound

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Range-BoundSideways: 59/100
Range-Bound Stock

This stock has traded in a compressed range for 4 of the last 5 years (3-year range: 34%). Range-bound stocks may indicate limited upside potential. A -2.9pt penalty has been applied.

YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$14.46$18.8726.5%Moderate
2022$16.40$21.2525.8%Moderate
2023$17.63$21.2618.7%Narrow
2024$18.41$21.6816.3%Narrow
2025$16.70$23.5534%Moderate
3-Year Range
34%
Narrow Years
4 / 5
Sideways Penalty
-2.9pt

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.49x dampening
weinstein basingrange bound

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
99.1%
Outstanding Shares
36M
Bid-Ask Spread
41.0%
Institutional Tradable
Limited

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.