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63

GAIN

🏦 Financial Services

Gladstone Investment Corporation

Conservative #238Aggressive #966Low RiskLow 8ML↑ 31pt
$14.13+1.87%
Day High$14.15
Day Low$13.80
Volume0.1M
Mkt Cap$563M
52W Low $1152W High $15
Market Cap
$550M
P/E Ratio
4.2
Sector avg: 49.4
Rev Growth
-12.9%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
-23.4%
Profit Margin
115.7%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.96

Why This Score

GAIN scores 63.1 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 24.7% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • High net margin of 115.7%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Attractively valued at 4.2x earnings, below the market average.
  • Low volatility (3.6% annualized) — well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (12%) — steady appreciation without overheating.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 5-point penalty for execution risk.

Moderate penalties (-8.4 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score63.1
Fundamental Score70.6
ML Score55.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
64.6
6 Month
72.2
Primary
1 Year
76.0

Quality Assessment

F
Earnings Grade
Weak fundamentals or significant quality concerns
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (526.7%) — earnings quality concern
False stability: 0.036 vol with only -12.9% revenue growth — stagnation, not safety (declining revenue overrides sector exemption)

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
20
Topping
Sentiment (2.5%)
46
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
57
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
40
Grade Clow volume, low dollar volume
Base
59.2
SHAP
+3.4
Factors
+0.6
Divergence
-0.1
Final
63.1
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)63.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)80.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)63.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-3.4% to +2.7%
Medium-term
-4.5% to +4.6%
Long-term
-5.9% to +6.1%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 55

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score57.1/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage7 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score46.1/100
News Volume0 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage3 — Topping
12M Momentum+0.1%
6M Momentum+0.0%
Volatility+0.0%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+10.0%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.18)
Relative Strength vs Sector+3.2%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (3.4)
Momentum Quality+0.115
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
3%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P9
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P89
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P3
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
-0.3σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
YES
Below-sector growth + cheap PE

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 45 relative to sector peers45/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 76th percentileP76
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.7pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (44.7) + 9% ML (75.5) + SHAP(+3.7) = 51.2—
Factor quality: +0.7pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 3.6%. Stability bonus of +12.0 pointsLow
Market cap adjustment: -15.0 points ($0.6B market cap)-15.0 pts
Conviction penalty: -4.0pt (conviction=8)—
Divergence penalty: -3.1pt (ML 31pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade F: assessed. Score adjusted by -30 pointsGrade F
Quality concern: Non-operating gain: net margin (115.7%) exceeds operating margin (51.4%) by 64pp — likely one-time item; High accrual ratio (526.7%) — earnings quality concern; False stability: 0.0 vol with only -12.9% revenue growth — stagnation, not safety (declining revenue overrides sector exemption)Flag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services — Rank #76 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
GAIN63.14.2-12.9%115.7%$550M
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$109.0B
CINF82.310.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
ACT82.08.92.4%54.6%$6.0B
SEIC80.914.010.7%27.3%$9.6B
TROW79.310.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
FHB78.311.83.2%24.2%$3.3B
MCHB77.70.0123.7%23.2%$3.4B
TRMK75.611.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
BCAL74.39.926.2%27.1%$613M
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
FFIN73.218.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$24.8B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.9B
VLY72.412.5-2.2%17.1%$7.5B
QQQX72.310.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
Sector Average45.849.413.4%-2.8%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Hold7 analysts
Buy: 2Hold: 5
Price Target
$15consensus
Low $15Median $15High $15
+6.2% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Gladstone Investment Corporation is business development company, specializes in lower middle market, mature stage, buyouts; refinancing existing debt; senior debt securities such as senior loans, senior term loans, lines of credit, and senior notes; senior subordinated debt securities such as senior subordinated loans and senior subordinated notes; junior subordinated debt securities such as subordinated notes and mezzanine loans; limited liability company interests, and warrants or options. The fund does not invest in start-ups. The fund seeks to invest in manufacturing, consumer products and business/consumer services sector. It seeks to invest in small and mid-sized companies based in the United States. The fund prefers to make debt investments between $5 million and $30 million and equity investments between $10 million and $40 million in companies. The fund seeks to invest in companies with revenue between $20 million and $100 million. The fund invests in companies with EBITDA from $3 million to $20 million. It seeks minority equity ownership and prefers to hold a board seat in its portfolio companies. It also prefers to take majority stake in its portfolio companies. The fund typically holds the investments for seven years and exits via sale or recapitalization, initial public offering, or sale to third party.

CEO
David John Gladstone
Employees
70
Beta
0.80
Industry
Asset Management
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
54.5
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-7.9%
High: $15.34
From 52W Low
+23.7%
Low: $11.42
Moving Averages
10-Day
$13.90
Above
20-Day
$13.90
Above
50-Day
$13.90
Above
200-Day
$14.00
Above
60-Day Support
$13.56
60-Day Resistance
$14.29
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 3 — ToppingScore: 22/100

Stock is losing momentum near highs. The 200-day SMA is flattening or beginning to turn. Historically, this stage precedes distribution.

Exercise caution; tighten risk management
Price vs 200 SMA
+0.9%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+0.89%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
0.92x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
1
Confidence: 70%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2025
Revenue$25M$36M$26M$26M
Gross Profit$21M$26M$17M$17M
Operating Income$-7M$29M$18M$18M
Net Income$66M$29M$18M$18M
EPS (Diluted)$1.66$0.75$0.21$0.49
Gross Margin82.4%73.3%65.1%65.1%
Operating Margin-26.0%79.5%69.4%69.4%
Net Margin262.9%79.5%69.4%69.4%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 4.2Profit margin 115.7%

Tradability FilterGrade C — 40/100Score impact: +7.7pt

Volume
39
168K avg/day
Dollar Vol
16
$2M/day
Float
69
39M shares
Mkt Cap
31
$550M
Range
57
34% spread
Composite Liquidity Score40/100
FDCBA
low volumelow dollar volumerange bound

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Range-BoundSideways: 65/100
Range-Bound Stock

This stock has traded in a compressed range for 3 of the last 5 years (3-year range: 29.3%). Range-bound stocks may indicate limited upside potential. A -3.3pt penalty has been applied.

YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$11.71$17.1537.7%Wide
2022$11.40$17.1240.1%Wide
2023$12.11$14.9220.8%Narrow
2024$12.46$14.9618.2%Narrow
2025$11.42$15.3429.3%Moderate
3-Year Range
29.3%
Narrow Years
3 / 5
Sideways Penalty
-3.3pt

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.24x dampening
revenue declinestagnation flagrange bound

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
97.8%
Outstanding Shares
40M
Bid-Ask Spread
34.0%
Institutional Tradable
Limited

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.