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36

EVCM

💻 Technology

EverCommerce Inc.

Conservative #967Aggressive #964Moderate RiskModerate 64ML↑ 18pt
$10.68+4.20%
Day High$10.75
Day Low$10.24
Volume0.1M
Mkt Cap$1.9B
52W Low $852W High $14
Market Cap
$1.9B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
3.5%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
9.9%
Profit Margin
-0.1%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
0.75

Why This Score

EVCM scores 35.7 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 5-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Above-average volatility (14.5%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Moderate penalties (-5.0 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score35.7
Fundamental Score38.5
ML Score35.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
62.3
6 Month
69.7
Primary
1 Year
73.3

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (20572.1%) — earnings quality concern

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
47
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
59
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
44
Grade Clow dollar volume, low float
Base
33.9
SHAP
+1.8
Factors
+1.1
Divergence
-1.1
Final
35.7
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)52.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)47.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)76.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-5.3% to +1.3%
Medium-term
-7.9% to +1.9%
Long-term
-10.5% to +2.5%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 35

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score58.9/100
Target Upside+8.9%
Coverage14 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score46.9/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum+0.0%
6M Momentum-0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+14.6%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.30)
Relative Strength vs Sector-0.3%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.2)
Momentum Quality+0.025
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
37%
High risk — cheap + stagnating
Sector RevGr Rank
P28
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P78
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P66
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
-0.1σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 54 relative to sector peers54/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 73th percentileP73
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +1.8pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (54.4) + 9% ML (70.5) + SHAP(+1.8) = 57.7—
Factor quality: +1.1pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 14.5%. Max drawdown 25% (-6.8 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: -8.0 points ($1.9B market cap)-8.0 pts
Divergence penalty: -1.1pt (ML 18pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (20572.1%) — earnings quality concern; R&D-adjusted ROIC: 0.4% (original: 0.4%). Software - Infrastructure has ~22% R&D intensity. Capitalizing R&D over 5 years increases invested capital by ~55%.Flag

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology — Rank #219 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
EVCM35.7N/A3.5%-0.1%$1.9B
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
Sector Average47.487.814.8%-110.0%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy14 analysts
Buy: 8Hold: 3Sell: 3
Price Target
$11consensus
Low $11Median $11High $11
+3.0% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

EverCommerce Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in providing integrated software-as-a-service solutions for service-based small and medium sized businesses in the United States and internationally. The company's solutions include business management software, including route-based dispatching, medical practice management, and gym member management solutions; billing and payment solutions that comprise e-invoicing, mobile payments, and integrated payment processing; customer engagement applications, which include reputation management and messaging solutions; and marketing technology solutions that cover websites, hosting, and digital lead generation. It also provides EverPro suite of solutions in home services; EverHealth suite of solutions within health services; and EverWell suite of solutions in fitness and wellness services. In addition, the company offers professional services, including implementation, configuration, installation, or training services. It serves home service professionals, such as home improvement contractors and home maintenance technicians; physician practices and therapists in the health services industry; and personal trainers and salon owners in the fitness and wellness sectors. The company was formerly known as PaySimple Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to EverCommerce Inc. in December 2020. The company was incorporated in 2016 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

CEO
Eric Remer
Employees
2,000
Beta
1.04
Industry
Software - Infrastructure
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
46.0
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-25.9%
High: $14.41
From 52W Low
+39.4%
Low: $7.66
Moving Averages
10-Day
$10.10
Above
20-Day
$10.70
Below
50-Day
$11.60
Below
200-Day
$10.90
Below
60-Day Support
$8.47
60-Day Resistance
$14.41
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 24/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Transition signal: 3→4
Price vs 200 SMA
-2%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+3.62%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.7x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
14
Confidence: 50%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$147M$148M$142M$175M
Gross Profit$114M$115M$111M$124M
Operating Income$16M$16M$14M$-12M
Net Income$11M$8M$-8M$-12M
EPS (Diluted)$0.06$0.04$-0.04$-0.07
Gross Margin77.3%77.4%78.1%70.9%
Operating Margin10.8%10.7%10.0%-6.8%
Net Margin7.5%5.5%-5.4%-7.0%

Why This Stock

Technology

Tradability FilterGrade C — 44/100Score impact: -4.3pt

Volume
53
234K avg/day
Dollar Vol
17
$2M/day
Float
28
13M shares
Mkt Cap
56
$1.9B
Range
100
88% spread
Composite Liquidity Score44/100
FDCBA
low dollar volumelow float

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.15x dampening
weinstein declining

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
7.3%
Outstanding Shares
181M
Bid-Ask Spread
88.0%
Institutional Tradable
Limited

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.