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NTCT

💻 Technology

NetScout Systems, Inc.

Conservative #514Aggressive #1167Low RiskHigh 100
$29.34+2.52%
Day High$29.49
Day Low$28.30
Volume0.4M
Mkt Cap$2.1B
52W Low $1852W High $31
Market Cap
$2.1B
P/E Ratio
22.2
Sector avg: 87.8
Rev Growth
-0.8%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
-148.4%
Profit Margin
11.1%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
0.04

Why This Score

NTCT scores 51.7 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.04) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (32%) — steady appreciation without overheating.
  • High conviction (100/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.

Moderate penalties (-7.5 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score51.7
Fundamental Score65.4
ML Score14.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
78.3
6 Month
87.5
Primary
1 Year
92.1

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
55
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
57
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
77
Grade B
Base
53.2
SHAP
+1.7
Factors
+0.7
Conviction
+1.6
Divergence
-5.5
Final
51.7
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)42.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)82.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)78.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+3.0% to +7.9%
Medium-term
+5.2% to +12.5%
Long-term
+8.0% to +17.9%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 14

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score57.1/100
Target Upside+2.8%
Coverage21 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score54.8/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.3%
6M Momentum+0.2%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+12.8%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.61)
Relative Strength vs Sector+28.9%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (4.3)
Momentum Quality+0.280
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
40%
High risk — cheap + stagnating
Sector RevGr Rank
P18
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P53
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P90
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
-0.2σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
YES
Below-sector growth + cheap PE
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 81 relative to sector peers81/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 81th percentileP81
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.7pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (81.3) + 9% ML (81.0) + SHAP(+3.7) = 85.0
Factor quality: +1.5pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 7.6%. Max drawdown 14% (-2.3 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: -4.0 points ($2.1B market cap)-4.0 pts
Conviction bonus: +3.6pt (conviction=100)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-195.9%) — earnings quality concern; R&D-adjusted ROIC: 4.3% (original: 4.9%). Software - Infrastructure has ~22% R&D intensity. Capitalizing R&D over 5 years increases invested capital by ~55%.Flag

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology — Rank #119 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
NTCT51.722.2-0.8%11.1%$2.1B
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
Sector Average47.487.814.8%-110.0%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Hold21 analysts
Buy: 8Hold: 11Sell: 2
Price Target
$29consensus
Low $29Median $29High $29
-1.2% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

NetScout Systems, Inc. provides service assurance and cybersecurity solutions for protect digital business services against disruptions in the United States, Europe, Asia, and internationally. The company offers nGeniusONE management software that enables customers to predict, preempt, and resolve network and service delivery problems, as well as facilitate the optimization and capacity planning of their network infrastructures; and specialized platforms and analytic modules that enable its customers to analyze and troubleshoot traffic in radio access and Wi-Fi networks. It also provides nGeniusPULSE, an active testing tool that enables enterprises to identify infrastructure performance issues and determine application availability, reliability, and performance; and nGenius Business Analytics solution, which enables service providers to analyze their network traffic. In addition, the company offers ISNG, an advanced passive network probe; packet flow systems that deliver targeted network traffic access to various monitoring and security tools and systems; and a suite of test access points that enable non-disruptive access to network traffic. Further, it provides cybersecurity solutions to protect their networks against distributed denial of service attacks under the Arbor brand, such as Arbor Sightline, Arbor Threat Mitigation System, Arbor Insight, Arbor Edge Defense, and Arbor Cloud. Additionally, it offers advanced threat detection solutions, such as Omnis Cyber Investigator. It serves enterprise customers in various industries, including financial services, technology, manufacturing, healthcare, utilities, education, transportation, and retail; mobile operators, wireline operators, cable operators, Internet service providers, and cloud providers; and governmental agencies through a direct sales force, and indirect reseller and distribution channels. NetScout Systems, Inc. was incorporated in 1984 and is headquartered in Westford, Massachusetts.

CEO
Anil K. Singhal
Employees
2,273
Beta
0.64
Industry
Software - Infrastructure
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
55.4
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-4.3%
High: $30.67
From 52W Low
+61.9%
Low: $18.12
Moving Averages
10-Day
$29.10
Above
20-Day
$28.50
Above
50-Day
$27.90
Above
200-Day
$25.50
Above
60-Day Support
$26.16
60-Day Resistance
$30.36
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 77/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+15.1%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+8.09%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.17x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2025
Revenue$251M$219M$187M$205M
Gross Profit$205M$175M$143M$159M
Operating Income$64M$32M$-7M$20M
Net Income$55M$26M$-4M$19M
EPS (Diluted)$0.75$0.36$-0.05$0.25
Gross Margin81.6%80.1%76.7%77.7%
Operating Margin25.7%14.8%-3.5%9.7%
Net Margin22.0%11.8%-2.0%9.1%

Why This Stock

TechnologyP/E ratio of 22.2Profit margin 11.1%Valuation below sector median (P/E 22.2)

Tradability FilterGrade B — 77/100Score impact: -4.7pt

Volume
80
504K avg/day
Dollar Vol
69
$14M/day
Float
87
68M shares
Mkt Cap
60
$2.1B
Range
95
69% spread
Composite Liquidity Score77/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 7/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$24.82$34.8733.7%Moderate
2022$28.69$38.0228%Moderate
2023$19.74$36.2458.9%Wide
2024$17.10$24.4235.3%Wide
2025$18.12$30.6751.4%Wide
3-Year Range
71.8%
Narrow Years
1 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
slight revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
94.6%
Outstanding Shares
72M
Bid-Ask Spread
69.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.