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33

APPN

💻 Technology

Appian Corporation

Conservative #1041Aggressive #1178Moderate RiskLow 34ML↑ 33pt
$26.33+5.57%
Day High$26.37
Day Low$24.56
Volume1.1M
Mkt Cap$1.9B
52W Low $2252W High $46
Market Cap
$1.9B
P/E Ratio
1506.7
Sector avg: 87.8
Rev Growth
17.8%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
101.3%
Profit Margin
0.2%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
N/A

Why This Score

APPN scores 32.7 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E -7.35) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Elevated valuation at 1506.7x earnings — requires sustained growth to justify the premium.
  • Above-average volatility (14.5%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Moderate penalties (-6.3 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score32.7
Fundamental Score43.8
ML Score0.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
79.9
6 Month
89.3
Primary
1 Year
94.0

Quality Assessment

C
Earnings Grade
Mixed fundamentals, potential quality issues
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (-5287.7%) — earnings quality concern

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
50
Basing
Sentiment (2.5%)
40
Negative
Analyst (6.4%)
58
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
75
Grade B
Base
33.0
SHAP
+2.6
Factors
+1.4
Divergence
-4.3
Final
32.7
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)48.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)36.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)74.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+3.8% to +8.7%
Medium-term
+6.3% to +13.8%
Long-term
+9.8% to +20.0%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 0

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score57.9/100
Target Upside+23.3%
Coverage19 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score39.6/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage1 — Basing
12M Momentum-0.3%
6M Momentum-0.3%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-3.9%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.87)
Relative Strength vs Sector-33.2%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (2.0)
Momentum Quality-0.167
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
0%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P68
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P0
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P43
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
+0.2σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 51 relative to sector peers51/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 84th percentileP84
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.0pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (51.4) + 9% ML (82.0) + SHAP(+3.0) = 57.2—
Factor quality: +1.6pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 14.5%. Max drawdown 43% (-12.0 pts). Price momentum -30% (-4.9 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: -8.0 points ($1.9B market cap)-8.0 pts
Conviction penalty: -1.5pt (conviction=34)—
Divergence penalty: -3.4pt (ML 33pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by -16 pointsGrade C
Quality concern: Earnings growth (101%) far exceeds revenue growth (17.8%) — margin expansion may not be sustainable; High accrual ratio (-5287.7%) — earnings quality concern; R&D-adjusted ROIC: 0.0% (original: 0.0%). Software - Infrastructure has ~22% R&D intensity. Capitalizing R&D over 5 years increases invested capital by ~55%.Flag

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology — Rank #234 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
APPN32.71506.717.8%0.2%$1.9B
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
Sector Average47.487.814.8%-110.0%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Hold19 analysts
Buy: 7Hold: 11Sell: 1
Price Target
$30consensus
Low $21Median $30High $41
+14.9% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Appian Corporation provides low-code automation platform in the United States and internationally. The company's platform automates the creation of forms, workflows, data structures, reports, user interfaces, and other software elements that are needed to be manually coded. The company also offers professional and customer support services. It serves to financial services, government, life sciences, insurance, manufacturing, energy, healthcare, telecommunications, and transportation industries. The company was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in McLean, Virginia.

CEO
Matthew W. Calkins
Employees
2,033
Beta
0.93
Industry
Software - Infrastructure
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
51.1
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-42.8%
High: $46.06
From 52W Low
+20.9%
Low: $21.77
Moving Averages
10-Day
$24.10
Above
20-Day
$25.40
Above
50-Day
$30.30
Below
200-Day
$31.60
Below
60-Day Support
$21.77
60-Day Resistance
$43.78
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 1 — BasingScore: 34/100

Stock is building a base after a decline. The 200-day moving average is flattening. Watch for a breakout above the 200-day SMA on increased volume.

Monitor for breakout above 200-day SMA on volume
Price vs 200 SMA
-16.7%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+1.63%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
1.58x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
30
Confidence: 70%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$203M$187M$171M$166M
Gross Profit$147M$142M$127M$128M
Operating Income$-687,000$13M$-11M$-834,000
Net Income$-5M$8M$-312,000$-1M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.07$0.10$-0.00$-0.02
Gross Margin72.4%75.8%74.3%76.6%
Operating Margin-0.3%7.0%-6.4%-0.5%
Net Margin-2.5%4.2%-0.2%-0.7%

Why This Stock

TechnologyRevenue growth 17.8%

Tradability FilterGrade B — 75/100Score impact: +3.1pt

Volume
96
890K avg/day
Dollar Vol
81
$22M/day
Float
40
0K shares
Mkt Cap
56
$1.9B
Range
100
112% spread
Composite Liquidity Score75/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$62.91$189.50100.3%Wide
2022$31.18$66.9172.9%Wide
2023$29.80$54.2658.2%Wide
2024$26.28$43.3349%Wide
2025$24.00$46.0663%Wide
3-Year Range
77.3%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
112.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.