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CSGS

💻 Technology

CSG Systems International, Inc.

Conservative #254Aggressive #379Low RiskHigh 82
$79.73-0.11%
Day High$79.87
Day Low$79.70
Volume0.2M
Mkt Cap$2.3B
52W Low $5552W High $81
Market Cap
$2.3B
P/E Ratio
25.0
Sector avg: 87.8
Rev Growth
2.2%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
44.5%
Profit Margin
7.2%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
2.07

Why This Score

CSGS scores 62.2 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 30.6% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (26%) — steady appreciation without overheating.
  • High conviction (82/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 2.07) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Minor adjustments (-2.0 points) applied. CSGS's rank of #254 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score62.2
Fundamental Score62.3
ML Score52.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
78.6
6 Month
87.8
Primary
1 Year
92.4

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
52
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
58
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
75
Grade B
Base
58.2
SHAP
+2.3
Factors
+0.8
Conviction
+0.9
Final
62.2
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)61.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)85.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)78.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+4.3% to +9.3%
Medium-term
+7.4% to +15.1%
Long-term
+10.8% to +21.2%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 52

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score58.3/100
Target Upside+1.1%
Coverage15 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score52.3/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.3%
6M Momentum+0.3%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+1.0%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.96)
Relative Strength vs Sector+22.7%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (3.7)
Momentum Quality+0.250
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
24%
Moderate — watch growth
Sector RevGr Rank
P24
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P47
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P65
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
-0.2σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 70 relative to sector peers70/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 79th percentileP79
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.7pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (69.9) + 9% ML (79.0) + SHAP(+3.7) = 74.4
Factor quality: +1.3pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 7.2%Low
Market cap adjustment: -4.0 points ($2.3B market cap)-4.0 pts
Conviction bonus: +1.4pt (conviction=82)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade A: strong earnings quality and financial health. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade A
Quality concern: High leverage: D/E ratio of 2.1x — elevated balance sheet risk; R&D-adjusted ROIC: 15.8% (original: 17.9%). Software - Infrastructure has ~22% R&D intensity. Capitalizing R&D over 5 years increases invested capital by ~55%.Flag

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology — Rank #62 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
CSGS62.225.02.2%7.2%$2.3B
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
Sector Average47.487.814.8%-110.0%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy15 analysts
Buy: 7Hold: 6Sell: 2
Price Target
$81consensus
Low $81Median $81High $81
+1.2% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

CSG Systems International, Inc. provides revenue management and digital monetization, customer engagement, and payment solutions primarily to the communications industry in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. It offers Advanced Convergent Platform, a private SaaS based platform; related solutions, including field force automation, analytics, electronic bill presentment, ACH, etc. to the North American cable and satellite markets. The company also provides managed services; and professional services to implement, configure, and maintain its solutions, as well as licenses various solutions, such as mediation, partner management, rating, and charging. It serves retail, financial services, healthcare, insurance, and government entities. The company was incorporated in 1994 and is headquartered in Greenwood Village, Colorado.

CEO
Brian A. Shepherd
Employees
5,800
Beta
0.88
Industry
Software - Infrastructure
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
56.5
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-1.2%
High: $80.67
From 52W Low
+45.9%
Low: $54.65
Moving Averages
10-Day
$79.70
Above
20-Day
$79.70
Above
50-Day
$78.80
Above
200-Day
$70.00
Above
60-Day Support
$76.09
60-Day Resistance
$80.67
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 76/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+13.9%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+8.04%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.8x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$323M$304M$297M$299M
Gross Profit$157M$142M$147M$145M
Operating Income$71M$36M$30M$29M
Net Income$7M$20M$12M$16M
EPS (Diluted)$0.25$0.73$0.44$0.57
Gross Margin48.7%46.7%49.5%48.4%
Operating Margin22.1%11.9%10.0%9.8%
Net Margin2.2%6.7%4.1%5.4%

Why This Stock

TechnologyValuation below sector median (P/E 25.0)

Tradability FilterGrade B — 75/100Score impact: -4.4pt

Volume
77
467K avg/day
Dollar Vol
91
$37M/day
Float
60
0K shares
Mkt Cap
61
$2.3B
Range
84
48% spread
Composite Liquidity Score75/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 10/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$42.58$59.4833.1%Moderate
2022$52.42$66.5823.8%Narrow
2023$46.19$69.3540.1%Wide
2024$39.56$57.1636.4%Wide
2025$49.23$79.2046.7%Wide
3-Year Range
66.8%
Narrow Years
1 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
48.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.