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33

CVLT

💻 Technology

Commvault Systems, Inc.

Conservative #1019Aggressive #1142Moderate RiskLow 9ML↑ 45pt
$86.56-2.18%
Day High$89.23
Day Low$86.18
Volume1.2M
Mkt Cap$3.8B
52W Low $8052W High $201
Market Cap
$4.0B
P/E Ratio
46.1
Sector avg: 87.8
Rev Growth
18.6%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
-54.9%
Profit Margin
7.6%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
4.39

Why This Score

CVLT scores 33.4 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 31.2% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
Risk Factors
  • Elevated valuation at 46.1x earnings — requires sustained growth to justify the premium.
  • Above-average volatility (12.5%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 4.39) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Moderate penalties (-7.9 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score33.4
Fundamental Score35.9
ML Score24.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
79.4
6 Month
88.8
Primary
1 Year
93.4

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns
Quality Flags
Extreme leverage: D/E ratio of 4.4x — balance sheet risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
56
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
65
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
85
Grade A
Base
38.9
SHAP
+1.8
Factors
+2.0
Conviction
-3.9
Divergence
-5.4
Final
33.4
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)34.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)25.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)80.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+9.6% to +15.5%
Medium-term
+14.0% to +22.7%
Long-term
+20.3% to +32.2%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 24

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score64.5/100
Target Upside+68.8%
Coverage31 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score55.8/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum-0.5%
6M Momentum-0.5%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+4.4%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.92)
Relative Strength vs Sector-52.2%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (3.9)
Momentum Quality-0.219
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
4%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P71
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P26
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P54
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
+0.2σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 50 relative to sector peers50/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 96th percentileP96
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +1.8pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (50.2) + 9% ML (95.5) + SHAP(+1.8) = 56.0—
Factor quality: +2.0pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 12.5%. Max drawdown 55% (-12.0 pts). Price momentum -49% (-8.7 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($4.0B market cap)+0.5 pts
Conviction penalty: -3.9pt (conviction=9)—
Divergence penalty: -5.4pt (ML 45pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -14 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-117.8%) — earnings quality concern; Extreme leverage: D/E ratio of 4.4x — balance sheet risk; R&D-adjusted ROIC: 4.7% (original: 5.2%). Software - Application has ~20% R&D intensity. Capitalizing R&D over 5 years increases invested capital by ~50%.Flag

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology — Rank #230 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
CVLT33.446.118.6%7.6%$4.0B
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
Sector Average47.487.814.8%-110.0%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy31 analysts
Buy: 18Hold: 13
Price Target
$146consensus
Low $100Median $150High $185
+68.9% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Commvault Systems, Inc. provides data protection and information management software applications and related services in the United States and internationally. The company offers Commvault Backup and Recovery, a backup and recovery solution; Commvault Disaster Recovery, a replication and disaster recovery solution; and Commvault Complete Data Protection, a data protection solution. It also provides Commvault HyperScale X, an easy-to-deploy scale-out solution; Commvault Distributed Storage Platform that offers software-defined storage built on a hyperscale architecture; Metallic Cloud Storage service, which is the easy button to adopt secure and scalable cloud storage; and Metallic Software-as-a-Service. In addition, the company provides technology and business consulting, education, and remote managed services. Further, it sells appliances that integrate the software with hardware for use in a range of business needs and use cases; and offers professional and customer support services that include data management-as-a-service under the Metallic brand. The company sells its products and services directly through its sales force, and indirectly through its network of distributors, value-added resellers, systems integrators, corporate resellers, and original equipment manufacturers to large enterprises, small and medium sized businesses, and government agencies. It supports customers in a range of industries, including banking, insurance and financial services, government, healthcare, pharmaceuticals and medical services, technology, legal, manufacturing, utilities, and energy. Commvault Systems, Inc. was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Tinton Falls, New Jersey.

CEO
Sanjay Mirchandani
Employees
3,300
Beta
0.59
Industry
Software - Application
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
58.8
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-56.9%
High: $200.68
From 52W Low
+8.9%
Low: $79.51
Moving Averages
10-Day
$88.60
Below
20-Day
$87.10
Below
50-Day
$109.00
Below
200-Day
$153.30
Below
60-Day Support
$79.51
60-Day Resistance
$129.48
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 1/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-43.5%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-9.22%
Falling
Volume Ratio
0.95x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
82
Confidence: 90%
Recent Gap Down

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2025
Revenue$314M$276M$282M$275M
Gross Profit$255M$221M$231M$227M
Operating Income$20M$12M$25M$27M
Net Income$18M$15M$23M$31M
EPS (Diluted)$0.40$0.33$0.52$0.69
Gross Margin81.1%80.1%82.0%82.6%
Operating Margin6.3%4.5%8.9%9.7%
Net Margin5.7%5.3%8.3%11.3%

Why This Stock

TechnologyRevenue growth 18.6%

Tradability FilterGrade A — 85/100Score impact: -4.2pt

Volume
96
893K avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$76M/day
Float
60
0K shares
Mkt Cap
64
$4.0B
Range
100
152% spread
Composite Liquidity Score85/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$58.88$84.2235.4%Wide
2022$50.26$70.8734%Moderate
2023$53.20$81.0041.4%Wide
2024$73.33$178.7283.6%Wide
2025$114.47$200.6854.7%Wide
3-Year Range
116.2%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
152.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.