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59

WAY

๐Ÿ’ป Technology

Waystar Holding Corp.

Conservative #330Aggressive #246Moderate RiskModerate 60
$24.40-3.29%
Day High$25.71
Day Low$24.36
Volume3.4M
Mkt Cap$4.7B
52W Low $2152W High $45
Market Cap
$4.8B
P/E Ratio
42.8
Sector avg: 87.8
Rev Growth
16.5%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
686.1%
Profit Margin
10.2%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
0.01

Why This Score

WAY scores 58.7 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.01) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
Risk Factors
  • Elevated valuation at 42.8x earnings โ€” requires sustained growth to justify the premium.

Minor adjustments (0.0 points) applied. WAY's rank of #330 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score58.7
Fundamental Score52.1
ML Score65.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
78.0
6 Month
87.1
Primary
1 Year
91.7

Quality Assessment

F
Earnings Grade
Weak fundamentals or significant quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
58
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
77
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
95
Grade A
Base
54.7
SHAP
+2.7
Factors
+1.3
Final
58.7
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)61.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)31.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)84.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+4.5% to +9.5%
Medium-term
+7.4% to +15.1%
Long-term
+11.6% to +22.1%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 65

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score76.6/100
Target Upside+53.9%
Coverage16 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score58.3/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 โ€” Declining
12M Momentum-0.5%
6M Momentum-0.4%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-7.6%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.84)
Relative Strength vs Sector-52.0%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality-0.266
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
6%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P66
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P29
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P63
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
+0.1ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 78 relative to sector peers78/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 88th percentileP88
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.0pt (features align with model priorities)โ€”
Blend: 91% fund (77.9) + 9% ML (88.0) + SHAP(+3.0) = 81.8โ€”
Factor quality: +1.5pt (multi-factor composite)โ€”
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 8.3%. Max drawdown 45% (-12.0 pts). Price momentum -48% (-8.7 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($4.8B market cap)+0.5 pts
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade F: assessed. Score adjusted by -30 pointsGrade F
Quality concern: Earnings growth (686%) massively exceeds revenue growth (16.5%) โ€” earnings spike likely non-recurring; Earnings/revenue growth ratio of 42x โ€” earnings quality suspect; High accrual ratio (-176.3%) โ€” earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology โ€” Rank #78 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
WAY58.742.816.5%10.2%$4.8B
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
Sector Average47.487.814.8%-110.0%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy16 analysts
Strong Buy: 1Buy: 15
Price Target
$38consensus
Low $27Median $38High $48
+54.3% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Waystar Holding Corp. develops a cloud-based software solution for healthcare payments. Its platform offers financial clearance, patient financial care, claim and payment management, denial prevention and recovery, revenue capture, and analytics and reporting solutions. The company primarily serves healthcare industry. Waystar Holding Corp. was founded in 2017 and is based in Lehi, Utah.

CEO
Matthew J. Hawkins
Employees
1,500
Beta
0.75
Industry
Information Technology Services
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
51.9
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-45.8%
High: $45
From 52W Low
+15.5%
Low: $21.13
Moving Averages
10-Day
$24.20
Above
20-Day
$24.70
Below
50-Day
$28.90
Below
200-Day
$35.20
Below
60-Day Support
$21.13
60-Day Resistance
$37.51
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 โ€” DecliningScore: 12/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-30.7%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-7.19%
Falling
Volume Ratio
1.87x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
80
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$304M$269M$271M$256M
Gross Profit$170M$184M$184M$173M
Operating Income$76M$60M$65M$65M
Net Income$20M$31M$32M$29M
EPS (Diluted)$0.10$0.17$0.18$0.16
Gross Margin56.2%68.3%67.8%67.5%
Operating Margin25.0%22.4%24.0%25.4%
Net Margin6.6%11.4%11.9%11.4%

Why This Stock

TechnologyRevenue growth 16.5%Profit margin 10.2%

Tradability FilterGrade A โ€” 95/100Score impact: -6.9pt

Volume
100
2.5M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$62M/day
Float
100
140M shares
Mkt Cap
67
$4.8B
Range
100
113% spread
Composite Liquidity Score95/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2024$20.26$38.3561.7%Wide
2025$29.40$48.1148.3%Wide
3-Year Range
81.5%
Narrow Years
0 / 2
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
72.9%
Outstanding Shares
192M
Bid-Ask Spread
113.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.