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22

CBK

๐Ÿฆ Financial Services

Commercial Bancgroup, Inc. Common Stock

Conservative #1248Aggressive #1277Moderate RiskMLโ†‘ 29pt
$26.01-4.13%
Day High$27.07
Day Low$25.85
Volume0.0M
Mkt Cap$356M
52W Low $2352W High $28
Market Cap
$369M
P/E Ratio
10.0
Sector avg: 26.8
Rev Growth
-1.3%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
17.6%
Profit Margin
28.1%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.59

Why This Score

CBK scores 21.9 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High net margin of 28.1%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Attractively valued at 10.0x earnings, below the market average.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 25-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Above-average volatility (20.0%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Net penalties of -26.1 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, CBK would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score21.9
Fundamental Score47.0
ML Score32.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
72.9
6 Month
81.5
Primary
1 Year
85.8

Quality Assessment

C
Quality Grade
Average quality โ€” moderate profitability or leverage

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
4%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
50
Basing
Sentiment (2.5%)
39
Negative
Analyst (6.4%)
50
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
10
Grade Flow volume, low dollar volume
Base
17.9
SHAP
+2.8
Factors
+1.3
Final
21.9
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

64AVG
Value86
Quality56
Growth52
Stability63
Investment61

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)70.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)52.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)60.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage72%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+0.1% to +6.9%
Medium-term
+0.6% to +10.8%
Long-term
+1.3% to +15.1%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 32

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score50.0/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage0 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score38.8/100
News Volume0 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage1 โ€” Basing
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+0.0%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (0.00)
Relative Strength vs Sector-8.9%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.0)
Momentum Quality+0.000
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
51%
High risk โ€” cheap + stagnating
Sector RevGr Rank
P18
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P83
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P75
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
-0.1ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
YES
Below-sector growth + cheap PE
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 47 relative to sector peers47/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 32th percentileP32
Blended score: 80% fundamental (47) + 20% ML (32) = 44.044.0
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.2%Low
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade C
SHAP feature alignment: +2.8pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Risk Factors
Value trap penalty: -1.1ptValue Trap
Liquidity penalty: -25.0pt (grade F)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services โ€” Rank #298 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
CBK21.910.0-1.3%28.1%$369M
CME86.427.29.9%57.5%$114.0B
FHB84.911.83.2%24.2%$3.1B
ACT84.58.92.4%54.6%$6.1B
CINF84.210.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
SEIC82.214.010.7%27.3%$9.9B
TROW79.910.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
QQQX79.710.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
IBOC78.210.67.5%40.1%$4.2B
HWC77.812.2-1.5%24.1%$5.6B
FFIN77.518.811.7%30.7%$4.7B
TRMK77.111.934.8%19.3%$2.6B
NMIH77.17.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
EWBC76.712.74.6%28.3%$15.3B
WSFS76.312.8-3.1%21.1%$3.5B
MCHB76.1N/A123.7%23.2%$3.1B
Sector Average47.526.813.4%-2.8%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Commercial Bancgroup, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Commercial Bank that provides a range of banking and financial services to individual and corporate customers in Kentucky, North Carolina, and Tennessee. It accepts various deposit products, including demand deposits accounts, interest-bearing products, savings accounts, and certificates of deposit products. The company also offers real estate, commercial, and consumer loans. The company was formerly known as Harrogate Corporation and changed its name to Commercial Bancgroup, Inc. in April 1989. The company was incorporated in 1975 and is based in Harrogate, Tennessee.

CEO
Terry L. Lee
Employees
282
Beta
4.01
Industry
Banks
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
40.8
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-6.5%
High: $27.83
From 52W Low
+11.9%
Low: $23.24
Moving Averages
10-Day
$26.50
Below
20-Day
$26.50
Below
50-Day
$25.50
Above
200-Day
N/A
60-Day Support
$23.24
60-Day Resistance
$27.83

Entry & Exit Zones

Avoid
No Entry
โ€”
Insufficient technical data
Exit Target
โ€”
โ€”
Stop Level
โ€”
โ€”

Not enough price history to compute reliable entry and exit zones for this stock.

Technical zones only โ€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$33M$33M$33M$33M
Gross Profit$23M$23M$22M$22M
Operating Income$13M$12M$12M$11M
Net Income$10M$9M$9M$9M
EPS (Diluted)$0.72$0.77$0.71$0.66
Gross Margin71.5%70.0%67.3%65.6%
Operating Margin38.9%37.7%35.0%33.7%
Net Margin30.4%29.0%26.9%26.2%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 10.0Profit margin 28.1%

Tradability FilterGrade F โ€” 10/100Score impact: -23.3pt

Low Tradability Warning

This stock has limited trading volume and/or float. Institutional investors may face difficulty entering or exiting positions without significant price impact. A post-hoc penalty has been applied to the composite score (this is not a backtested model factor โ€” it is a practical tradability overlay).

Volume
9
76K avg/day
Dollar Vol
13
$2M/day
Float
7
7M shares
Mkt Cap
16
$369M
Range
0
20% spread
Composite Liquidity Score10/100
FDCBA
low volumelow dollar volumelow floatsmall capsideways trading

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.49x dampening
weinstein basingslight revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
51.4%
Outstanding Shares
14M
Bid-Ask Spread
20.0%
Institutional Tradable
No

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.