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CARG

🛍️ Consumer Cyclical

CarGurus, Inc.

Conservative #345Aggressive #555Moderate RiskMixed 40F↑ 15pt
$30.70+1.45%
Day High$31.31
Day Low$30.24
Volume0.8M
Mkt Cap$3.0B
52W Low $2552W High $39
Market Cap
$3.0B
P/E Ratio
18.4
Sector avg: 36.9
Rev Growth
1.4%
Sector avg: 6.3%
Earnings Growth
643.4%
Profit Margin
17.2%
Sector avg: -6.5%
Debt/Equity
0.51

Why This Score

CARG scores 60.6 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 39.3% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.

No material penalties applied. CARG ranks #345 based on its factor profile and ML signal alignment.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score60.6
Fundamental Score57.5
ML Score60.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
58.0
6 Month
64.9
Primary
1 Year
68.3

Quality Assessment

F
Earnings Grade
Weak fundamentals or significant quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
51
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
65
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
86
Grade A
Base
58.0
SHAP
+2.4
Factors
+1.2
Conviction
-1.0
Final
60.6
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)76.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)48.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)79.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-2.5% to +1.6%
Medium-term
-3.2% to +2.8%
Long-term
-3.9% to +4.1%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 60

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score65.2/100
Target Upside+30.7%
Coverage23 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score50.7/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum-0.2%
6M Momentum-0.2%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+5.9%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.72)
Relative Strength vs Sector-16.2%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (1.7)
Momentum Quality-0.107
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
32%
High risk — cheap + stagnating
Sector RevGr Rank
P36
Revenue growth vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector PE Rank
P68
Valuation vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector FCF Rank
P74
Free cash flow vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Growth Deviation
-0.1σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 83 relative to sector peers83/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 68th percentileP68
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +2.4pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (82.8) + 9% ML (67.7) + SHAP(+2.4) = 83.9—
Factor quality: +1.2pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 9.0%. Max drawdown 29% (-8.3 pts). Price momentum -15% (-2.0 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: -4.0 points ($3.0B market cap)-4.0 pts
Conviction penalty: -1.0pt (conviction=40)—
Divergence penalty: -0.7pt (fund 15pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade F: assessed. Score adjusted by -30 pointsGrade F
Quality concern: Earnings growth (643%) massively exceeds revenue growth (1.4%) — earnings spike likely non-recurring; Earnings/revenue growth ratio of 457x — earnings quality suspect; High accrual ratio (-89.4%) — earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Cyclical — Rank #25 of 114 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
CARG60.618.41.4%17.2%$3.0B
MAR76.937.24.3%9.9%$93.0B
ULTA75.526.20.8%10.6%$31.0B
ABNB75.530.110.3%20.5%$81.8B
ORLY73.132.55.7%14.3%$77.0B
HAS73.016.7-17.3%9.3%$14.1B
ROST71.530.73.7%9.9%$66.4B
GTX71.511.83.1%8.6%$4.0B
DPZ71.121.95.1%12.4%$13.7B
CART69.719.911.0%13.5%$9.9B
EBAY69.618.31.7%19.3%$39.7B
GNTX68.314.30.6%17.5%$5.2B
MCRI66.117.24.4%18.6%$1.8B
CASY65.541.07.3%3.4%$25.2B
AMZN65.527.712.4%10.8%$2.2T
TXRH65.227.616.0%8.1%$12.2B
Sector Average47.336.96.3%-6.5%—

Company Overviewvia FMP

CarGurus, Inc. operates an online automotive platform for buying and selling vehicles in the United States and internationally. It operates through two segments, U.S. Marketplace and Digital Wholesale. The company provides an online automotive marketplace that allows customers to search for new and used car listings from its dealers; and connects dealers to a large audience of informed and engaged consumers while providing dealers with actionable data-based insights. It also offers Digital Deal which allows shoppers to start purchase from a VDP on eligible listings that provides them with purchase options; Finance in Advance, where eligible consumers can pre-qualify for financing on cars from dealerships that offer financing from partners; Sell My Car – Top Dealer Offers which allows dealers to make tailored trade-in offers; and Sell My Car – Instant Max Cash Offer which allows consumers to sell vehicles to dealers online. In addition, the company provides dealer listings and data insights products; auto manufacturers and others advertiser products, such as brand reinforcement, category sponsorship, automobile segment exclusivity, and consumer segment exposure; Autolist, an online automotive marketplace through mobile applications and a website; and PistonHeads which is an automotive marketplace, auction platform, and editorial site for automotive enthusiasts. The company was formerly known as CarGurus LLC and changed its name to CarGurus, Inc. in June 2015. CarGurus, Inc. was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts.

CEO
Jason Trevisan
Employees
1,282
Beta
1.37
Industry
Auto - Dealerships
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
61.3
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-22%
High: $39.42
From 52W Low
+24.8%
Low: $24.65
Moving Averages
10-Day
$28.80
Above
20-Day
$29.30
Above
50-Day
$33.90
Below
200-Day
$34.10
Below
60-Day Support
$26.39
60-Day Resistance
$39.42
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 21/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-9.8%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+3.87%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.7x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
21
Confidence: 40%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$241M$239M$234M$225M
Gross Profit$218M$214M$204M$200M
Operating Income$69M$55M$25M$46M
Net Income$50M$45M$22M$39M
EPS (Diluted)$0.51$0.45$0.22$0.37
Gross Margin90.4%89.5%87.3%88.7%
Operating Margin28.7%22.9%10.6%20.3%
Net Margin20.7%18.7%9.5%17.3%

Why This Stock

Consumer CyclicalP/E ratio of 18.4Profit margin 17.2%

Tradability FilterGrade A — 86/100Score impact: +0.9pt

Volume
97
913K avg/day
Dollar Vol
84
$25M/day
Float
92
79M shares
Mkt Cap
62
$3.0B
Range
90
60% spread
Composite Liquidity Score86/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$22.63$39.7754.9%Wide
2022$9.14$50.03138.2%Wide
2023$14.13$24.6454.2%Wide
2024$21.18$39.1059.5%Wide
2025$24.65$41.3350.6%Wide
3-Year Range
98.1%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
79.6%
Outstanding Shares
99M
Bid-Ask Spread
60.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.