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60

RRR

🛍️ Consumer Cyclical

Red Rock Resorts, Inc.

Conservative #349Aggressive #452Low RiskHigh 97
$61.97+0.73%
Day High$62.81
Day Low$61.32
Volume0.2M
Mkt Cap$3.7B
52W Low $3552W High $69
Market Cap
$3.8B
P/E Ratio
20.0
Sector avg: 36.9
Rev Growth
3.7%
Sector avg: 6.3%
Earnings Growth
22.1%
Profit Margin
9.3%
Sector avg: -6.5%
Debt/Equity
15.54

Why This Score

RRR scores 60.3 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 85.0% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (28%) — steady appreciation without overheating.
  • High conviction (97/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 15.54) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Minor adjustments (0.0 points) applied. RRR's rank of #349 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score60.3
Fundamental Score57.0
ML Score54.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
80.1
6 Month
89.5
Primary
1 Year
94.2

Quality Assessment

C
Earnings Grade
Mixed fundamentals, potential quality issues
Quality Flags
Extreme leverage: D/E ratio of 15.5x — balance sheet risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
64
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
66
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
85
Grade A
Base
56.3
SHAP
+1.9
Factors
+0.6
Conviction
+1.4
Final
60.3
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)62.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)77.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)83.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+5.0% to +10.2%
Medium-term
+8.5% to +16.3%
Long-term
+12.6% to +23.3%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 54

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score66.4/100
Target Upside+22.1%
Coverage29 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score64.2/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.3%
6M Momentum+0.0%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+27.9%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.01)
Relative Strength vs Sector+27.2%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (3.1)
Momentum Quality+0.245
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
21%
Moderate — watch growth
Sector RevGr Rank
P51
Revenue growth vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector PE Rank
P63
Valuation vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector FCF Rank
P69
Free cash flow vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Growth Deviation
0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 74 relative to sector peers74/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 81th percentileP81
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +4.4pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (73.9) + 9% ML (80.6) + SHAP(+4.4) = 78.9
Factor quality: +1.4pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 9.2%. Max drawdown 13% (-2.2 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($3.8B market cap)+0.5 pts
Conviction bonus: +3.2pt (conviction=97)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by -19 pointsGrade C
Quality concern: Non-operating loss: operating margin (29.7%) exceeds net margin (9.3%) by 20pp — possible write-down; High accrual ratio (-117.4%) — earnings quality concern; Extreme leverage: D/E ratio of 15.5x — balance sheet riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Cyclical — Rank #27 of 114 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
RRR60.320.03.7%9.3%$3.8B
MAR76.937.24.3%9.9%$93.0B
ULTA75.526.20.8%10.6%$31.0B
ABNB75.530.110.3%20.5%$81.8B
ORLY73.132.55.7%14.3%$77.0B
HAS73.016.7-17.3%9.3%$14.1B
ROST71.530.73.7%9.9%$66.4B
GTX71.511.83.1%8.6%$4.0B
DPZ71.121.95.1%12.4%$13.7B
CART69.719.911.0%13.5%$9.9B
EBAY69.618.31.7%19.3%$39.7B
GNTX68.314.30.6%17.5%$5.2B
MCRI66.117.24.4%18.6%$1.8B
CASY65.541.07.3%3.4%$25.2B
AMZN65.527.712.4%10.8%$2.2T
TXRH65.227.616.0%8.1%$12.2B
Sector Average47.336.96.3%-6.5%

Company Overviewvia FMP

Red Rock Resorts, Inc., through its interest in Station Holdco and Station LLC, develops and operates casino and entertainment properties in the United States. It operates through two segments, Las Vegas Operations and Native American Management. The company owns and operates 9 gaming and entertainment facilities, and 10 smaller casinos in the Las Vegas regional market. In addition, it manages Graton Resort & Casino in northern California. As of December 31, 2021, it operated approximately 13,894 slot machines, 240 table games, and 3,081 hotel rooms in the Las Vegas market. The company was formerly known as Station Casinos Corp. and changed its name to Red Rock Resorts, Inc. in January 2016. Red Rock Resorts, Inc. was incorporated in 1976 and is based in Las Vegas, Nevada.

CEO
Frank J. Fertitta
Employees
9,300
Beta
1.45
Industry
Gambling, Resorts & Casinos
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
48.4
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-10.3%
High: $68.99
From 52W Low
+76.4%
Low: $35.09
Moving Averages
10-Day
$62.80
Below
20-Day
$63.50
Below
50-Day
$62.80
Below
200-Day
$57.80
Above
60-Day Support
$55.92
60-Day Resistance
$68.99
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 75/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+7.1%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+9.86%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$512M$476M$526M$498M
Gross Profit$264M$296M$332M$311M
Operating Income$144M$131M$168M$154M
Net Income$45M$42M$56M$45M
EPS (Diluted)$0.75$0.68$0.95$0.75
Gross Margin51.5%62.2%63.1%62.6%
Operating Margin28.1%27.6%31.9%31.0%
Net Margin8.7%8.9%10.7%9.0%

Why This Stock

Consumer CyclicalP/E ratio of 20.0Valuation below sector median (P/E 20.0)

Tradability FilterGrade A — 85/100Score impact: -5.8pt

Volume
87
667K avg/day
Dollar Vol
94
$40M/day
Float
78
48M shares
Mkt Cap
64
$3.8B
Range
100
97% spread
Composite Liquidity Score85/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 2/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$28.39$58.7469.7%Wide
2022$30.98$55.8457.3%Wide
2023$37.82$54.6336.4%Wide
2024$44.94$63.2933.9%Moderate
2025$35.09$64.2558.7%Wide
3-Year Range
58.7%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
81.2%
Outstanding Shares
59M
Bid-Ask Spread
97.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.