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RUSHA

🛍️ Consumer Cyclical

Rush Enterprises, Inc.

Conservative #265Aggressive #393Low RiskModerate 74ML↑ 18pt
$71.18-3.26%
Day High$73.61
Day Low$69.85
Volume0.7M
Mkt Cap$5.4B
52W Low $4652W High $76
Market Cap
$5.6B
P/E Ratio
21.2
Sector avg: 45.1
Rev Growth
-1.5%
Sector avg: 6.3%
Earnings Growth
-12.4%
Profit Margin
3.9%
Sector avg: -6.5%
Debt/Equity
0.81

Why This Score

RUSHA scores 61.5 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Positive but moderate momentum (25%) — steady appreciation without overheating.
  • High conviction (74/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.

No material penalties applied. RUSHA ranks #265 based on its factor profile and ML signal alignment.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score61.5
Fundamental Score54.3
ML Score73.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
79.8
6 Month
89.2
Primary
1 Year
93.9

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
54
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
62
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
84
Grade A
Base
58.1
SHAP
+2.8
Factors
+1.2
Divergence
-0.6
Final
61.5
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

57AVG
Value70
Quality55
Growth45
Stability60
Investment55

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)45.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)81.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)79.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+7.9% to +13.5%
Medium-term
+11.5% to +19.8%
Long-term
+17.0% to +28.4%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 73

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score61.8/100
Target Upside+4.1%
Coverage17 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score54.2/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.2%
6M Momentum+0.3%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-1.1%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.96)
Relative Strength vs Sector+23.4%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (3.1)
Momentum Quality+0.212
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
31%
High risk — cheap + stagnating
Sector RevGr Rank
P22
Revenue growth vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector PE Rank
P43
Valuation vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector FCF Rank
P92
Free cash flow vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Growth Deviation
-0.3σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 76 relative to sector peers76/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 94th percentileP94
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +4.4pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (75.7) + 9% ML (93.6) + SHAP(+4.4) = 81.7—
Factor quality: +1.8pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 8.0%. Max drawdown 14% (-2.2 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($5.6B market cap)+0.5 pts
Divergence penalty: -1.1pt (ML 18pt higher)—
Risk Factors

No risk factors identified.

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Cyclical — Rank #18 of 114 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
RUSHA61.521.2-1.5%3.9%$5.6B
MAR75.937.24.3%9.9%$93.8B
ABNB75.230.110.3%20.5%$72.8B
ULTA75.126.20.8%10.6%$30.6B
HAS73.016.7-17.3%9.3%$14.4B
ORLY71.932.55.7%14.3%$81.6B
ROST71.130.73.7%9.9%$63.9B
DPZ70.621.95.1%12.4%$12.7B
GTX69.711.83.1%8.6%$3.8B
CART69.119.911.0%13.5%$9.6B
EBAY68.518.31.7%19.3%$37.6B
GNTX68.214.30.6%17.5%$5.5B
AMZN65.327.712.4%10.8%$2.1T
CASY65.141.07.3%3.4%$24.7B
TXRH65.027.616.0%8.1%$12.0B
URBN63.213.37.7%7.3%$6.3B
Sector Average46.245.16.3%-6.5%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Hold17 analysts
Buy: 8Hold: 9
Price Target
$77consensus
Low $73Median $77High $80
+7.5% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Rush Enterprises, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated retailer of commercial vehicles and related services in the United States. The company operates a network of commercial vehicle dealerships under the Rush Truck Centers name. Its Rush Truck Centers primarily sell commercial vehicles manufactured by Peterbilt, International, Hino, Ford, Isuzu, IC Bus, or Blue Bird. The company also provides new and used commercial vehicles, and aftermarket parts, as well as service and repair, financing, and leasing and rental services; and offers property and casualty insurance, including collision and liability insurance on commercial vehicles, cargo insurance, and credit life insurance to its commercial vehicle customers. In addition, it provides equipment installation and repair, parts installation, and paint and body repair services; new vehicle pre-delivery inspection, truck modification, and natural gas fuel system installation services; body, chassis upfitting, and component installation services, as well as sells tires for use on commercial vehicles, new and used trailers, and vehicle telematics products; and manufactures compressed natural gas fuel systems and related component parts for commercial vehicles. The company serves regional and national fleets, corporations, local and state governments, and owner operators. It operates a network of centers located in the states of Alabama, Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Missouri, Nevada, Nebraska, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, and Virginia. Rush Enterprises, Inc. was incorporated in 1965 and is headquartered in New Braunfels, Texas.

CEO
W. Marvin Rush
Employees
7,827
Beta
0.93
Industry
Auto - Dealerships
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
51.8
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-6.3%
High: $75.99
From 52W Low
+55.9%
Low: $45.67
Moving Averages
10-Day
$72.60
Below
20-Day
$70.40
Above
50-Day
$63.20
Above
200-Day
$55.40
Above
60-Day Support
$51.26
60-Day Resistance
$75.99
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 81/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+28.5%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+4.48%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.17x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
58
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$1.8B$1.9B$1.9B$1.9B
Gross Profit$330M$375M$380M$358M
Operating Income$91M$100M$110M$92M
Net Income$64M$67M$72M$60M
EPS (Diluted)$0.81$0.83$0.90$0.73
Gross Margin18.6%19.9%19.7%19.3%
Operating Margin5.2%5.3%5.7%5.0%
Net Margin3.6%3.5%3.8%3.3%

Why This Stock

Consumer CyclicalP/E ratio of 21.2Earnings quality grade AValuation below sector median (P/E 21.2)

Tradability FilterGrade A — 84/100Score impact: -13.6pt

Volume
80
503K avg/day
Dollar Vol
91
$37M/day
Float
87
67M shares
Mkt Cap
69
$5.6B
Range
93
66% spread
Composite Liquidity Score84/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$27.30$38.4433.9%Moderate
2022$28.48$40.5935.1%Wide
2023$33.37$50.4240.7%Wide
2024$40.99$65.1545.5%Wide
2025$45.67$65.4335.6%Wide
3-Year Range
64.9%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
slight revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
88.1%
Outstanding Shares
77M
Bid-Ask Spread
66.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.