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42

REAL

🛍️ Consumer Cyclical

The RealReal, Inc.

Conservative #802Aggressive #723Moderate RiskLow 37ML↑ 32pt
$12.49+3.88%
Day High$12.51
Day Low$11.94
Volume3.6M
Mkt Cap$3.6B
52W Low $552W High $17
Market Cap
$3.2B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
9.3%
Sector avg: 6.3%
Earnings Growth
20.3%
Profit Margin
-10.8%
Sector avg: -6.5%
Debt/Equity
N/A

Why This Score

REAL scores 43.6 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 19.5% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • Minimal leverage (D/E -1.22) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (20.6%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Moderate penalties (-4.7 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score43.6
Fundamental Score49.6
ML Score20.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
63.8
6 Month
71.3
Primary
1 Year
75.1

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
3.9%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
85
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
63
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
91
Grade A
Base
43.6
SHAP
+1.8
Factors
+1.6
Conviction
-1.3
Divergence
-2.2
Final
43.6
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)68.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)81.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)87.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+6.5% to +12.1%
Medium-term
+10.7% to +19.2%
Long-term
+16.4% to +28.1%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 20

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score63.0/100
Target Upside+67.2%
Coverage25 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score85.2/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.7%
6M Momentum+0.5%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+17.8%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.74)
Relative Strength vs Sector+66.8%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (3.3)
Momentum Quality+0.493
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
1%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P72
Revenue growth vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector PE Rank
P43
Valuation vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector FCF Rank
P11
Free cash flow vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Growth Deviation
+0.3σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 43 relative to sector peers43/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 74th percentileP74
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +1.8pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (42.8) + 9% ML (70.1) + SHAP(+1.8) = 47.1—
Factor quality: +1.6pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 20.6%. Max drawdown 27% (-7.8 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($3.2B market cap)+0.5 pts
Conviction penalty: -1.2pt (conviction=37)—
Divergence penalty: -3.2pt (ML 32pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (114.7%) — earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Cyclical — Rank #72 of 114 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
REAL43.6N/A9.3%-10.8%$3.2B
MAR76.937.24.3%9.9%$93.0B
ULTA75.526.20.8%10.6%$31.0B
ABNB75.530.110.3%20.5%$81.8B
ORLY73.132.55.7%14.3%$77.0B
HAS73.016.7-17.3%9.3%$14.1B
ROST71.530.73.7%9.9%$66.4B
GTX71.511.83.1%8.6%$4.0B
DPZ71.121.95.1%12.4%$13.7B
CART69.719.911.0%13.5%$9.9B
EBAY69.618.31.7%19.3%$39.7B
GNTX68.314.30.6%17.5%$5.2B
MCRI66.117.24.4%18.6%$1.8B
CASY65.541.07.3%3.4%$25.2B
AMZN65.527.712.4%10.8%$2.2T
TXRH65.227.616.0%8.1%$12.2B
Sector Average47.336.96.3%-6.5%—

Company Overviewvia FMP

The RealReal, Inc. operates an online marketplace for consigned luxury goods in the United State. It offers various product categories, including women's, men's, kids', jewelry and watches, and home and art products. The company was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.

CEO
Rati Sahi Levesque
Employees
3,011
Beta
2.65
Industry
Luxury Goods
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
49.2
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-28.3%
High: $17.39
From 52W Low
+170.5%
Low: $4.61
Moving Averages
10-Day
$11.40
Above
20-Day
$12.50
Below
50-Day
$14.60
Below
200-Day
$10.20
Above
60-Day Support
$10.55
60-Day Resistance
$17.39
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 85/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+22.3%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+33.28%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.23x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$174M$165M$160M$164M
Gross Profit$129M$123M$120M$122M
Operating Income$-8M$-10M$-13M$-5M
Net Income$-54M$-11M$62M$-68M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.48$-0.13$0.56$-0.64
Gross Margin74.3%74.3%75.0%74.4%
Operating Margin-4.3%-6.0%-8.0%-3.1%
Net Margin-31.1%-6.9%39.0%-41.7%

Why This Stock

Consumer Cyclical

Tradability FilterGrade A — 91/100Score impact: -6.9pt

Volume
100
2.8M avg/day
Dollar Vol
87
$30M/day
Float
100
232M shares
Mkt Cap
63
$3.2B
Range
100
277% spread
Composite Liquidity Score91/100
FDCBA
Free Float
80.0%
Outstanding Shares
290M
Bid-Ask Spread
277.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.