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53

CAKE

๐Ÿ›๏ธ Consumer Cyclical

The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated

Conservative #516Aggressive #1102Moderate RiskFโ†‘ 18pt
$64.78-0.46%
Day High$65.03
Day Low$63.44
Volume0.7M
Mkt Cap$3.2B
52W Low $4352W High $70
Market Cap
$3.2B
P/E Ratio
20.0
Sector avg: 36.9
Rev Growth
4.7%
Sector avg: 6.3%
Earnings Growth
-5.3%
Profit Margin
4.0%
Sector avg: -6.5%
Debt/Equity
N/A

Why This Score

CAKE scores 53.8 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 50.9% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.00) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (11%) โ€” steady appreciation without overheating.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.

Minor adjustments (-2.9 points) applied. CAKE's rank of #516 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score53.8
Fundamental Score60.4
ML Score26.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
38.2
6 Month
42.7
Primary
1 Year
44.9

Quality Assessment

C
Quality Grade
Average quality โ€” moderate profitability or leverage

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
44
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
54
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
88
Grade A
Base
53.5
SHAP
+2.6
Factors
+0.6
Divergence
-2.9
Final
53.8
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

58AVG
Value70.06375
Quality50
Growth41
Stability77
Investment50

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)62.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)52.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)49.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-13.6% to -4.4%
Medium-term
-18.3% to -5.1%
Long-term
-23.0% to -5.8%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 26

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score54.2/100
Target Upside-2.2%
Coverage48 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score43.7/100
News Volume0 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+0.1%
6M Momentum-0.0%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+14.4%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.33)
Relative Strength vs Sector+9.7%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (1.3)
Momentum Quality+0.081
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
11%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P58
Revenue growth vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector PE Rank
P64
Valuation vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector FCF Rank
P41
Free cash flow vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Growth Deviation
+0.1ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 60 relative to sector peers60/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 26th percentileP26
Blended score: 80% fundamental (60) + 20% ML (26) = 53.553.5
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 25% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade C
SHAP feature alignment: +2.6pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Divergence penalty: -2.9pt (ML 34pt lower)Divergence
Risk Factors

No risk factors identified.

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Cyclical โ€” Rank #45 of 114 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
CAKE53.820.04.7%4.0%$3.2B
MAR76.937.24.3%9.9%$91.3B
ULTA75.526.20.8%10.6%$30.9B
ABNB75.530.110.3%20.5%$81.6B
ORLY73.132.55.7%14.3%$78.4B
HAS73.016.7-17.3%9.3%$14.0B
GTX71.611.83.1%8.6%$4.1B
ROST71.530.73.7%9.9%$66.4B
DPZ71.121.95.1%12.4%$13.7B
CART69.719.911.0%13.5%$10.0B
EBAY69.618.31.7%19.3%$40.2B
GNTX68.314.30.6%17.5%$5.1B
MCRI66.217.24.4%18.6%$1.7B
CASY65.541.07.3%3.4%$25.3B
AMZN65.527.712.4%10.8%$2.2T
TXRH65.227.616.0%8.1%$12.1B
Sector Average47.436.96.3%-6.5%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated operates restaurants. It operates two bakeries that produces cheesecakes and other baked products for its restaurants, international licensees, third-party bakery customers, external foodservice operators, retailers, and distributors. The company owns and operates 306 restaurants throughout the United States and Canada under brands, including 208 The Cheesecake Factory and 29 North Italia; and a collection of Fox Restaurant Concepts, as well as 29 The Cheesecake Factory restaurants under licensing agreements internationally. The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in Calabasas, California.

CEO
David Overton
Employees
47,900
Beta
0.98
Industry
Restaurants
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
54.1
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-7.1%
High: $69.7
From 52W Low
+51.7%
Low: $42.69
Moving Averages
10-Day
$63.50
Above
20-Day
$62.20
Above
50-Day
$58.10
Above
200-Day
$56.80
Above
60-Day Support
$46.47
60-Day Resistance
$66.5
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 72/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+14%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+3.72%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.34x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
38
Confidence: 90%
Breakout Volume Confirmed

Entry & Exit Zones

Above Entry Zone
$53.99
Stop Entry Now Target
$73.74
Entry Zone
$57.52 โ€“ $59.84
SMA50 pullback zone ($57.52โ€“$59.84)
Exit Target
$71.59
52-week high / +22% target ($71.59)
Stop Level
$55.66
Below SMA200 ($55.66)
Risk / Reward:1 : 4.27Favorable

Stage 2 uptrend โ€” institutional accumulation phase. SMA50 pullbacks are the highest-probability entry points. Stop below SMA200 preserves capital if trend breaks.

Technical zones only โ€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$962M$907M$956M$927M
Gross Profit$754M$710M$750M$725M
Operating Income$33M$37M$65M$52M
Net Income$29M$32M$55M$33M
EPS (Diluted)$0.60$0.66$1.14$0.67
Gross Margin78.4%78.2%78.5%78.2%
Operating Margin3.5%4.1%6.8%5.6%
Net Margin3.0%3.5%5.7%3.6%

Why This Stock

Consumer CyclicalP/E ratio of 20.0Valuation below sector median (P/E 20.0)

Tradability FilterGrade A โ€” 88/100Score impact: +28.2pt

Volume
100
1.2M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$75M/day
Float
70
40M shares
Mkt Cap
63
$3.2B
Range
92
63% spread
Composite Liquidity Score88/100
FDCBA

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.15x dampening
weinstein declining

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
80.9%
Outstanding Shares
50M
Bid-Ask Spread
63.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.