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PZZA

🛍️ Consumer Cyclical

Papa John's International, Inc.

Conservative #796Aggressive #1134Moderate RiskHigh 100
$31.35-7.32%
Day High$33.45
Day Low$31.00
Volume2.4M
Mkt Cap$1.0B
52W Low $3052W High $56
Market Cap
$1.0B
P/E Ratio
27.2
Sector avg: 36.9
Rev Growth
-3.6%
Sector avg: 6.3%
Earnings Growth
1.7%
Profit Margin
1.8%
Sector avg: -6.5%
Debt/Equity
N/A

Why This Score

PZZA scores 43.7 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E -2.16) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • High conviction (100/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Above-average volatility (13.8%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Minor adjustments (-2.0 points) applied. PZZA's rank of #796 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score43.7
Fundamental Score43.4
ML Score35.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
62.9
6 Month
70.3
Primary
1 Year
74.0

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (-310.2%) — earnings quality concern

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
45
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
64
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
79
Grade B
Base
39.7
SHAP
+1.7
Factors
+0.6
Conviction
+1.7
Final
43.7
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)42.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)39.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)77.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-1.8% to +4.5%
Medium-term
-2.3% to +7.2%
Long-term
-2.8% to +10.0%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 35

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score64.1/100
Target Upside+26.5%
Coverage32 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score44.7/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum-0.3%
6M Momentum-0.3%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+6.7%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.79)
Relative Strength vs Sector-26.8%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (1.9)
Momentum Quality-0.165
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
19%
Moderate — watch growth
Sector RevGr Rank
P16
Revenue growth vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector PE Rank
P33
Valuation vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector FCF Rank
P68
Free cash flow vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Growth Deviation
-0.4σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 43 relative to sector peers43/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 35th percentileP35
Blended score: 80% fundamental (43) + 20% ML (35) = 41.741.7
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 36% → 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade B
SHAP feature alignment: +1.7pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: +1.7pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Risk Factors
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-310.2%) — earnings quality concernFlag
Liquidity penalty: -2.0pt (grade B)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Cyclical — Rank #71 of 114 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
PZZA43.727.2-3.6%1.8%$1.0B
MAR76.937.24.3%9.9%$93.0B
ULTA75.526.20.8%10.6%$31.0B
ABNB75.530.110.3%20.5%$81.8B
ORLY73.132.55.7%14.3%$77.0B
HAS73.016.7-17.3%9.3%$14.1B
GTX71.611.83.1%8.6%$4.0B
ROST71.530.73.7%9.9%$66.4B
DPZ71.121.95.1%12.4%$13.7B
CART69.719.911.0%13.5%$9.9B
EBAY69.618.31.7%19.3%$39.7B
GNTX68.314.30.6%17.5%$5.2B
MCRI66.217.24.4%18.6%$1.8B
CASY65.541.07.3%3.4%$25.2B
AMZN65.527.712.4%10.8%$2.2T
TXRH65.227.616.0%8.1%$12.2B
Sector Average47.336.96.3%-6.5%

Company Overviewvia FMP

Papa John's International, Inc. operates and franchises pizza delivery and carryout restaurants under the Papa John's trademark in the United States and internationally. It operates through four segments: Domestic Company-Owned Restaurants, North America Commissaries, North America Franchising, and International Operations. The company also operates dine-in and delivery restaurants under the Papa John's trademark internationally. As of December 26, 2021, it operated 5,650 Papa John's restaurants, which included 600 company-owned and 5,050 franchised restaurants in 50 countries and territories. The company was founded in 1984 and is based in Louisville, Kentucky.

CEO
Todd Allan Penegor
Employees
11,400
Beta
1.21
Industry
Restaurants
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
39.0
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-43.7%
High: $55.74
From 52W Low
+4.1%
Low: $30.16
Moving Averages
10-Day
$32.50
Below
20-Day
$33.50
Below
50-Day
$36.60
Below
200-Day
$43.50
Below
60-Day Support
$30.2
60-Day Resistance
$43.83
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 16/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-27.8%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-2.07%
Falling
Volume Ratio
1.48x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
78
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$508M$529M$518M$531M
Gross Profit$98M$157M$152M$107M
Operating Income$16M$24M$24M$30M
Net Income$5M$10M$9M$15M
EPS (Diluted)$0.13$0.28$0.27$0.44
Gross Margin19.2%29.8%29.3%20.2%
Operating Margin3.2%4.6%4.6%5.6%
Net Margin0.9%1.8%1.8%2.8%

Why This Stock

Consumer CyclicalValuation below sector median (P/E 27.2)

Tradability FilterGrade B — 79/100Score impact: -7.8pt

Volume
95
872K avg/day
Dollar Vol
86
$29M/day
Float
62
32M shares
Mkt Cap
41
$1.0B
Range
100
85% spread
Composite Liquidity Score79/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$78.41$140.6856.8%Wide
2022$66.74$133.4066.6%Wide
2023$60.66$97.7846.9%Wide
2024$38.25$78.6769.1%Wide
2025$30.16$55.7459.6%Wide
3-Year Range
105.7%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.49x dampening
weinstein basingslight revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
99.0%
Outstanding Shares
33M
Bid-Ask Spread
85.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.