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45

SHOO

๐Ÿ›๏ธ Consumer Cyclical

Steven Madden, Ltd.

Conservative #746Aggressive #708Moderate RiskMLโ†‘ 20pt
$36.10-2.06%
Day High$36.64
Day Low$35.13
Volume1.6M
Mkt Cap$2.6B
52W Low $1952W High $47
Market Cap
$2.9B
P/E Ratio
50.3
Sector avg: 36.9
Rev Growth
15.2%
Sector avg: 6.3%
Earnings Growth
-1.3%
Profit Margin
2.4%
Sector avg: -6.5%
Debt/Equity
0.63

Why This Score

SHOO scores 45.7 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Positive but moderate momentum (23%) โ€” steady appreciation without overheating.
Risk Factors
  • Elevated valuation at 50.3x earnings โ€” requires sustained growth to justify the premium.
  • Above-average volatility (14.0%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Minor adjustments (0.0 points) applied. SHOO's rank of #746 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score45.7
Fundamental Score44.4
ML Score31.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
62.9
6 Month
70.3
Primary
1 Year
74.0

Quality Assessment

D
Quality Grade
Below average quality โ€” weak profitability or high leverage

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
61
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
65
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
91
Grade A
Base
41.7
SHAP
+2.9
Factors
+1.1
Final
45.7
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

53AVG
Value41
Quality31
Growth54
Stability69
Investment72

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)40.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)78.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)82.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+1.4% to +6.0%
Medium-term
+3.0% to +10.1%
Long-term
+4.6% to +14.1%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 31

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score65.3/100
Target Upside+20.4%
Coverage31 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score61.1/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+0.2%
6M Momentum+0.4%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-13.7%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.62)
Relative Strength vs Sector+21.7%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (1.6)
Momentum Quality+0.181
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
1%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P85
Revenue growth vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector PE Rank
P10
Valuation vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector FCF Rank
P37
Free cash flow vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Growth Deviation
+0.7ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 44 relative to sector peers44/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 31th percentileP31
Blended score: 80% fundamental (44) + 20% ML (31) = 41.741.7
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 21% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade D
SHAP feature alignment: +2.9pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Risk Factors

No risk factors identified.

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Cyclical โ€” Rank #63 of 114 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
SHOO45.750.315.2%2.4%$2.9B
MAR76.937.24.3%9.9%$91.3B
ULTA75.526.20.8%10.6%$30.9B
ABNB75.530.110.3%20.5%$81.6B
ORLY73.132.55.7%14.3%$78.4B
HAS73.016.7-17.3%9.3%$14.0B
GTX71.611.83.1%8.6%$4.1B
ROST71.530.73.7%9.9%$66.4B
DPZ71.121.95.1%12.4%$13.7B
CART69.719.911.0%13.5%$10.0B
EBAY69.618.31.7%19.3%$40.2B
GNTX68.314.30.6%17.5%$5.1B
MCRI66.217.24.4%18.6%$1.7B
CASY65.541.07.3%3.4%$25.3B
AMZN65.527.712.4%10.8%$2.2T
TXRH65.227.616.0%8.1%$12.1B
Sector Average47.436.96.3%-6.5%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Steven Madden, Ltd. designs, sources, markets, and sells fashion-forward branded and private label footwear, accessories, and apparel for women, men, and children in the United States and internationally. Its Wholesale Footwear segment provides footwear under the Steve Madden, Steven by Steve Madden, Madden Girl, BB Dakota, Dolce Vita, DV Dolce Vita, Betsey Johnson, GREATS, Blondo, Anne Klein, Mad Love, Superga, Madden NYC, and COOL Planet brands, as well as private label footwear. The company's Wholesale Accessories/Apparel segment offers handbags, apparel, small leather goods, belts, soft accessories, fashion scarves, wraps, gifting, and other accessories under the Steve Madden, BB Dakota, Anne Klein, Betsey Johnson, Cejon, Madden NYC, and Dolce Vita brands, as well as private label handbag and accessories to department stores, mass merchants, off-price retailers, online retailers, specialty stores, and independent stores. Its Direct-to-Consumer segment operates Steve Madden and Superga full-price retail stores, Steve Madden outlet stores, and Steve Madden shop-in-shops, as well as digital e-commerce websites, including SteveMadden.com, DolceVita.com, betseyjohnson.com, Blondo.com, GREATS.com, and Superga-USA.com. The company's Licensing segment licenses its Steve Madden, Madden Girl, and Betsey Johnson trademarks. Its First Cost segment operates as a buying agent for footwear products under private labels for national chains, specialty retailers, and value-priced retailers. As of December 31, 2021, it owned and operated 214 brick-and-mortar retail stores that included 147 Steve Madden full-price stores, 66 Steve Madden outlet stores, and 1 Superga store, as well as 6 e-commerce websites. Steven Madden, Ltd. was incorporated in 1990 and is headquartered in Long Island City, New York.

CEO
Edward R. Rosenfeld
Employees
3,500
Beta
1.11
Industry
Apparel - Footwear & Accessories
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
51.8
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-23%
High: $46.88
From 52W Low
+89.5%
Low: $19.05
Moving Averages
10-Day
$38.00
Below
20-Day
$38.60
Below
50-Day
$41.90
Below
200-Day
$33.50
Above
60-Day Support
$33.89
60-Day Resistance
$46.88
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 76/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+7.8%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+16.54%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.28x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Entry & Exit Zones

Below Entry Zone
$31.85
Stop Entry Now Target
$53.18
Entry Zone
$41.48 โ€“ $43.16
SMA50 pullback zone ($41.48โ€“$43.16)
Exit Target
$51.63
52-week high / +22% target ($51.63)
Stop Level
$32.83
Below SMA200 ($32.83)
Risk / Reward:1 : 0.98Tight

Stage 2 uptrend โ€” institutional accumulation phase. SMA50 pullbacks are the highest-probability entry points. Stop below SMA200 preserves capital if trend breaks.

Technical zones only โ€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$754M$668M$559M$554M
Gross Profit$320M$277M$226M$226M
Operating Income$36M$31M$-40M$53M
Net Income$23M$21M$-39M$40M
EPS (Diluted)$0.33$0.29$-0.56$0.57
Gross Margin42.4%41.5%40.4%40.9%
Operating Margin4.8%4.7%-7.2%9.7%
Net Margin3.1%3.1%-7.1%7.3%

Why This Stock

Consumer CyclicalRevenue growth 15.2%

Tradability FilterGrade A โ€” 91/100Score impact: -7.6pt

Volume
100
1.3M avg/day
Dollar Vol
98
$47M/day
Float
88
71M shares
Mkt Cap
62
$2.9B
Range
100
146% spread
Composite Liquidity Score91/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 6/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$33.56$51.5642.3%Wide
2022$26.36$49.8561.6%Wide
2023$29.92$44.2338.6%Wide
2024$37.99$50.0127.3%Moderate
2025$19.05$44.9981%Wide
3-Year Range
89.7%
Narrow Years
1 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
97.7%
Outstanding Shares
73M
Bid-Ask Spread
146.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.