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44

WEN

🛍️ Consumer Cyclical

The Wendy's Company

Conservative #787Aggressive #1042Moderate RiskModerate 76ML↑ 17pt
$7.71+2.94%
Day High$7.72
Day Low$7.50
Volume4.9M
Mkt Cap$1.5B
52W Low $752W High $16
Market Cap
$1.5B
P/E Ratio
9.3
Sector avg: 36.9
Rev Growth
-3.1%
Sector avg: 6.3%
Earnings Growth
-15.1%
Profit Margin
7.6%
Sector avg: -6.5%
Debt/Equity
35.31

Why This Score

WEN scores 44.0 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 140.6% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • Attractively valued at 9.3x earnings, below the market average.
  • High conviction (76/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 35.31) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Minor adjustments (-3.0 points) applied. WEN's rank of #787 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score44.0
Fundamental Score40.5
ML Score54.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
73.0
6 Month
81.5
Primary
1 Year
85.8

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns
Quality Flags
Extreme leverage: D/E ratio of 35.3x — balance sheet risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
31
Negative
Analyst (6.4%)
54
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
92
Grade A
Base
40.2
SHAP
+2.5
Factors
+1.3
Final
44.0
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)49.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)34.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)71.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-1.4% to +5.0%
Medium-term
-1.7% to +8.0%
Long-term
-2.0% to +11.0%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 54

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score53.9/100
Target Upside+4.5%
Coverage51 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score30.8/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum-0.5%
6M Momentum-0.3%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-21.5%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.56)
Relative Strength vs Sector-49.9%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality-0.265
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
70%
High risk — cheap + stagnating
Sector RevGr Rank
P17
Revenue growth vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector PE Rank
P96
Valuation vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector FCF Rank
P88
Free cash flow vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Growth Deviation
-0.4σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
YES
Below-sector growth + cheap PE
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 41 relative to sector peers41/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 54th percentileP54
Blended score: 80% fundamental (41) + 20% ML (54) = 43.243.2
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 46% → 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade B
SHAP feature alignment: +2.5pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Risk Factors
Quality concern: Extreme leverage: D/E ratio of 35.3x — balance sheet riskFlag
Value trap penalty: -3.0ptValue Trap

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Cyclical — Rank #70 of 114 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
WEN44.09.3-3.1%7.6%$1.5B
MAR76.937.24.3%9.9%$93.0B
ULTA75.526.20.8%10.6%$31.0B
ABNB75.530.110.3%20.5%$81.8B
ORLY73.132.55.7%14.3%$77.0B
HAS73.016.7-17.3%9.3%$14.1B
GTX71.611.83.1%8.6%$4.0B
ROST71.530.73.7%9.9%$66.4B
DPZ71.121.95.1%12.4%$13.7B
CART69.719.911.0%13.5%$9.9B
EBAY69.618.31.7%19.3%$39.7B
GNTX68.314.30.6%17.5%$5.2B
MCRI66.217.24.4%18.6%$1.8B
CASY65.541.07.3%3.4%$25.2B
AMZN65.527.712.4%10.8%$2.2T
TXRH65.227.616.0%8.1%$12.2B
Sector Average47.336.96.3%-6.5%—

Company Overviewvia FMP

The Wendy's Company, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a quick-service restaurant company. It operates through three segments: Wendy's U.S., Wendy's International, and Global Real Estate & Development. The company is involved in operating, developing, and franchising a system of quick-service restaurants specializing in hamburger sandwiches. As of January 2, 2022, it operated approximately 403 company-operated restaurants; 5,535 franchised restaurants in the United States; and 1,006 franchised restaurants internationally. The company also owns and leases real estate properties. It owns 485 and leases 1,235 properties, which are leased or subleased to franchisees. The company was formerly known as Wendy's/Arby's Group, Inc. and changed its name to The Wendy's Company in July 2011. The Wendy's Company was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Dublin, Ohio.

CEO
Kenneth Cook
Employees
4,833
Beta
0.38
Industry
Restaurants
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
45.8
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-51.7%
High: $15.97
From 52W Low
+14.5%
Low: $6.73
Moving Averages
10-Day
$7.70
Above
20-Day
$7.80
Below
50-Day
$8.10
Below
200-Day
$9.60
Below
60-Day Support
$6.73
60-Day Resistance
$8.77
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 10/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-19.7%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-15.72%
Falling
Volume Ratio
1.74x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$543M$550M$561M$523M
Gross Profit$131M$145M$166M$148M
Operating Income$64M$88M$104M$83M
Net Income$26M$44M$55M$39M
EPS (Diluted)$0.14$0.23$0.29$0.19
Gross Margin24.2%26.5%29.7%28.3%
Operating Margin11.9%15.9%18.6%15.9%
Net Margin4.9%8.1%9.8%7.5%

Why This Stock

Consumer CyclicalP/E ratio of 9.3Valuation below sector median (P/E 9.3)

Tradability FilterGrade A — 92/100Score impact: -10.7pt

Volume
100
7.2M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$56M/day
Float
100
145M shares
Mkt Cap
50
$1.5B
Range
100
141% spread
Composite Liquidity Score92/100
FDCBA

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.49x dampening
weinstein basingslight revenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
76.3%
Outstanding Shares
190M
Bid-Ask Spread
141.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.