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DRVN

๐Ÿ›๏ธ Consumer Cyclical

Driven Brands Holdings Inc.

Conservative #1065Aggressive #1082Low RiskMLโ†‘ 26pt
$11.00-3.93%
Day High$11.40
Day Low$10.70
Volume3.1M
Mkt Cap$1.8B
52W Low $1052W High $20
Market Cap
$1.8B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
1.5%
Sector avg: 6.3%
Earnings Growth
60.7%
Profit Margin
-9.1%
Sector avg: -6.5%
Debt/Equity
3.47

Why This Score

DRVN scores 30.9 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 3.47) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Minor adjustments (-1.5 points) applied. DRVN's rank of #1065 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score30.9
Fundamental Score34.8
ML Score12.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
54.4
6 Month
60.8
Primary
1 Year
64.0

Quality Assessment

F
Quality Grade
Low quality โ€” significant fundamental weaknesses
2 quality flags detected โ€” see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (215.1%) โ€” earnings quality concern
Extreme leverage: D/E ratio of 3.5x โ€” balance sheet risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
52
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
68
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
82
Grade A
Base
30.3
SHAP
+1.2
Factors
+0.8
Conviction
-0.2
Divergence
-1.2
Final
30.9
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

46AVG
Value50
Quality2
Growth72
Stability58
Investment46

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)42.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)56.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)80.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-1.9% to +2.1%
Medium-term
-2.6% to +3.5%
Long-term
-3.2% to +4.9%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 12

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score68.3/100
Target Upside+18.6%
Coverage15 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score51.6/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 โ€” Declining
12M Momentum-0.0%
6M Momentum-0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+4.6%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.46)
Relative Strength vs Sector-5.0%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.6)
Momentum Quality-0.031
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
5%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P37
Revenue growth vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector PE Rank
P43
Valuation vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector FCF Rank
P17
Free cash flow vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Growth Deviation
-0.1ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 35 relative to sector peers35/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 12th percentileP12
Blended score: 80% fundamental (35) + 20% ML (12) = 30.230.2
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.1%; Drawdown 22% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade F: quality flags triggered โ€” see details below. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade F
SHAP feature alignment: +1.2pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: -0.2pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Divergence penalty: -1.2pt (ML 23pt lower)Divergence
Risk Factors
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (215.1%) โ€” earnings quality concern; Extreme leverage: D/E ratio of 3.5x โ€” balance sheet riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Cyclical โ€” Rank #93 of 114 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
DRVN30.9N/A1.5%-9.1%$1.8B
MAR76.937.24.3%9.9%$91.3B
ULTA75.526.20.8%10.6%$30.9B
ABNB75.530.110.3%20.5%$81.6B
ORLY73.132.55.7%14.3%$78.4B
HAS73.016.7-17.3%9.3%$14.0B
GTX71.611.83.1%8.6%$4.1B
ROST71.530.73.7%9.9%$66.4B
DPZ71.121.95.1%12.4%$13.7B
CART69.719.911.0%13.5%$10.0B
EBAY69.618.31.7%19.3%$40.2B
GNTX68.314.30.6%17.5%$5.1B
MCRI66.217.24.4%18.6%$1.7B
CASY65.541.07.3%3.4%$25.3B
AMZN65.527.712.4%10.8%$2.2T
TXRH65.227.616.0%8.1%$12.1B
Sector Average47.436.96.3%-6.5%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Driven Brands Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides automotive services to retail and commercial customers in the United States, Canada, and internationally. The company offers various services, such as paint, collision, glass, vehicle repair, car wash, oil change, and maintenance services. It also distributes automotive parts, including radiators, air conditioning components, and exhaust products to automotive repair shops, auto parts stores, body shops, and other auto repair outlets; windshields and glass accessories through a network of distribution centers; and consumable products, such as oil filters and wiper blades, as well as provides training services to repair and maintenance, and paint and collision shops. The company sells its products and services under the Take 5 Oil Change, IMO, CARSTAR, ABRA, Fix Auto, Maaco, Meineke, Uniban, 1-800-Radiator & A/C, PH Vitres D'Autos, Spire Supply, and Automotive Training Institute names. As of December 25, 2021, it operated 4,412 company-operated, franchised, and independently-operated stores. Driven Brands Holdings Inc. was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina.

CEO
Daniel R. Rivera
Employees
10,700
Beta
1.04
Industry
Auto - Dealerships
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
10.2
Oversold
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-44.3%
High: $19.74
From 52W Low
+12.2%
Low: $9.8
Moving Averages
10-Day
$15.20
Below
20-Day
$15.90
Below
50-Day
$15.50
Below
200-Day
$16.30
Below
60-Day Support
$9.8
60-Day Resistance
$17.3
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 โ€” DecliningScore: 6/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-32.5%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-2.07%
Falling
Volume Ratio
2.27x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
3
Confidence: 90%
Recent Gap Down

Entry & Exit Zones

Avoid
No Entry
โ€”
No entry โ€” active downtrend
Exit Target
โ€”
Exit position if held
Stop Level
โ€”
No stop โ€” exit recommended

Stage 4 downtrend โ€” price is below both SMA50 and SMA200 with a declining 200-day average. Capital preservation takes priority. Do not buy into a downtrend.

Technical zones only โ€” derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$536M$551M$516M$564M
Gross Profit$270M$283M$298M$279M
Operating Income$62M$38M$61M$-319M
Net Income$61M$48M$6M$-312M
EPS (Diluted)$0.37$0.29$0.03$-1.94
Gross Margin50.4%51.4%57.7%49.4%
Operating Margin11.6%6.9%11.9%-56.5%
Net Margin11.4%8.6%1.1%-55.3%

Why This Stock

Consumer Cyclical

Tradability FilterGrade A โ€” 82/100Score impact: -1.8pt

Volume
99
977K avg/day
Dollar Vol
73
$16M/day
Float
84
60M shares
Mkt Cap
62
$1.8B
Range
83
47% spread
Composite Liquidity Score82/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$22.26$34.6243.5%Wide
2022$24.62$35.4536.1%Wide
2023$10.61$31.4799.2%Wide
2024$10.59$17.4548.9%Wide
2025$13.44$19.7438%Wide
3-Year Range
99.3%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
36.2%
Outstanding Shares
164M
Bid-Ask Spread
47.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.