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64

BKNG

🛍️ Consumer Cyclical

Booking Holdings Inc.

Conservative #269Aggressive #834Moderate RiskModerate 79ML↑ 15pt
$4224.96+1.49%
Day High$4292.10
Day Low$4179.50
Volume0.4M
Mkt Cap$136.2B
52W Low $387152W High $5839
Market Cap
$136.8B
P/E Ratio
24.5
Sector avg: 36.9
Rev Growth
13.4%
Sector avg: 6.3%
Earnings Growth
-8.1%
Profit Margin
20.1%
Sector avg: -6.5%
Debt/Equity
N/A

Why This Score

BKNG scores 64.5 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High net margin of 20.1%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Minimal leverage (D/E -3.46) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • Large-cap ($137B) with deep liquidity and institutional ownership.
  • High conviction (79/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.

Minor adjustments (-2.0 points) applied. BKNG's rank of #269 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score64.5
Fundamental Score63.4
ML Score59.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
80.9
6 Month
90.4
Primary
1 Year
95.2

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
50
Basing
Sentiment (2.5%)
60
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
66
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
79
Grade B
Base
60.5
SHAP
+2.4
Factors
+1.6
Final
64.5
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)58.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)47.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)81.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+4.4% to +9.5%
Medium-term
+7.3% to +15.0%
Long-term
+11.5% to +22.0%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 59

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score66.2/100
Target Upside+55.2%
Coverage71 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score59.6/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage1 — Basing
12M Momentum-0.2%
6M Momentum-0.3%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+8.9%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.65)
Relative Strength vs Sector-17.9%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (2.1)
Momentum Quality-0.121
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
4%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P82
Revenue growth vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector PE Rank
P39
Valuation vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector FCF Rank
P59
Free cash flow vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Growth Deviation
+0.6σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 72 relative to sector peers72/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 88th percentileP88
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.1pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (72.4) + 9% ML (85.3) + SHAP(+3.1) = 76.7—
Factor quality: +2.0pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 8.0%. Max drawdown 28% (-8.0 pts). Price momentum -17% (-2.4 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: +3.5 points ($131.4B market cap)+3.5 pts
Divergence penalty: -0.7pt (ML 15pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-74.1%) — earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Cyclical — Rank #16 of 114 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
BKNG64.524.513.4%20.1%$136.8B
MAR76.937.24.3%9.9%$93.0B
ULTA75.526.20.8%10.6%$31.0B
ABNB75.530.110.3%20.5%$81.8B
ORLY73.132.55.7%14.3%$77.0B
HAS73.016.7-17.3%9.3%$14.1B
ROST71.530.73.7%9.9%$66.4B
GTX71.511.83.1%8.6%$4.0B
DPZ71.121.95.1%12.4%$13.7B
CART69.719.911.0%13.5%$9.9B
EBAY69.618.31.7%19.3%$39.7B
GNTX68.314.30.6%17.5%$5.2B
MCRI66.117.24.4%18.6%$1.8B
CASY65.541.07.3%3.4%$25.2B
AMZN65.527.712.4%10.8%$2.2T
TXRH65.227.616.0%8.1%$12.2B
Sector Average47.336.96.3%-6.5%—

Company Overviewvia FMP

Booking Holdings Inc. provides travel and restaurant online reservation and related services worldwide. The company operates Booking.com, which offers online accommodation reservations; Rentalcars.com that provides online rental car reservation services; Priceline, which offer online travel reservation services, and consumers hotel, flight, and rental car reservation services, as well as vacation packages, cruises, and hotel distribution services. It also operates Agoda that provides online accommodation reservation services, as well as flight, ground transportation and activities reservation services. In addition, the company operates KAYAK, an online price comparison service that allows consumers to search and compare travel itineraries and prices, comprising airline ticket, accommodation reservation, and rental car reservation information; and OpenTable for booking online restaurant reservations. Further, it offers travel-related insurance products, and restaurant management services to consumers, travel service providers, and restaurants. The company was formerly known as The Priceline Group Inc. and changed its name to Booking Holdings Inc. in February 2018. The company was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Norwalk, Connecticut.

CEO
Glenn D. Fogel
Employees
24,500
Beta
1.19
Industry
Travel Services
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
42.5
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-27.8%
High: $5839.41
From 52W Low
+12%
Low: $3765.45
Moving Averages
10-Day
$4111.40
Above
20-Day
$4366.70
Below
50-Day
$4933.50
Below
200-Day
$5263.50
Below
60-Day Support
$3765.45
60-Day Resistance
$5520.15
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 1 — BasingScore: 32/100

Stock is building a base after a decline. The 200-day moving average is flattening. Watch for a breakout above the 200-day SMA on increased volume.

Monitor for breakout above 200-day SMA on volume
Price vs 200 SMA
-19.9%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+1.23%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
1.95x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
30
Confidence: 70%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$6.3B$9.0B$6.8B$4.8B
Gross Profit$6.2B$9.0B$6.8B$4.8B
Operating Income$2.1B$3.5B$2.3B$1.1B
Net Income$1.4B$2.7B$895M$333M
EPS (Diluted)$43.66$84.41$27.43$10.07
Gross Margin97.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
Operating Margin32.4%38.7%33.1%22.3%
Net Margin22.5%30.5%13.2%7.0%

Why This Stock

Consumer CyclicalP/E ratio of 24.5Revenue growth 13.4%Profit margin 20.1%

Tradability FilterGrade B — 79/100Score impact: +16.3pt

Volume
59
295K avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$1.1B/day
Float
62
32M shares
Mkt Cap
100
$136.8B
Range
88
55% spread
Composite Liquidity Score79/100
FDCBA

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
98.1%
Outstanding Shares
32M
Bid-Ask Spread
55.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.