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PDD

๐Ÿ›๏ธ Consumer Cyclical

PDD Holdings Inc.

Conservative #368Aggressive #299Moderate RiskHigh 82
$105.48-1.33%
Day High$106.37
Day Low$104.57
Volume2.2M
Mkt Cap$147.6B
52W Low $8752W High $139
Market Cap
$146.8B
P/E Ratio
9.9
Sector avg: 36.9
Rev Growth
59.0%
Sector avg: 6.3%
Earnings Growth
87.3%
Profit Margin
24.4%
Sector avg: -6.5%
Debt/Equity
0.03

Why This Score

PDD scores 59.6 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 29.3% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • High net margin of 24.4%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Attractively valued at 9.9x earnings, below the market average.
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.03) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • Large-cap ($147B) with deep liquidity and institutional ownership.
  • High conviction (82/100) โ€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.

No material penalties applied. PDD ranks #368 based on its factor profile and ML signal alignment.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score59.6
Fundamental Score64.6
ML Score80.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
75.1
6 Month
83.9
Primary
1 Year
88.3

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality
Country Risk:
Score penalty of points applied for domicile risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
50
Basing
Sentiment (2.5%)
55
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
64
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
95
Grade A
Base
55.7
SHAP
+2.0
Factors
+1.0
Conviction
+1.0
Divergence
-0.1
Final
59.6
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)87.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)51.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)80.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+2.5% to +7.3%
Medium-term
+4.3% to +11.7%
Long-term
+6.5% to +16.4%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 80

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score63.9/100
Target Upside+38.9%
Coverage27 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score54.5/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage1 โ€” Basing
12M Momentum-0.1%
6M Momentum-0.2%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+4.8%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.71)
Relative Strength vs Sector-12.9%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (1.4)
Momentum Quality-0.088
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
1%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P99
Revenue growth vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector PE Rank
P95
Valuation vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector FCF Rank
P80
Free cash flow vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Growth Deviation
+3.0ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 93 relative to sector peers93/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 79th percentileP79
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.0pt (features align with model priorities)โ€”
Blend: 91% fund (93.1) + 9% ML (79.3) + SHAP(+3.0) = 94.8โ€”
Factor quality: +1.5pt (multi-factor composite)โ€”
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 8.2%. Max drawdown 26% (-7.1 pts). Price momentum -12% (-1.4 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: +3.5 points ($146.8B market cap)+3.5 pts
Conviction bonus: +1.4pt (conviction=82)โ€”
Risk Factors
Country risk: China -14.0pt [structural: -8pt, macro: -6.0pt] (VIE structure risk, HFCAA delisting risk, regulatory seizure precedent)Country

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Cyclical โ€” Rank #30 of 114 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
PDD59.69.959.0%24.4%$146.8B
MAR76.937.24.3%9.9%$93.0B
ULTA75.526.20.8%10.6%$31.0B
ABNB75.530.110.3%20.5%$81.8B
ORLY73.132.55.7%14.3%$77.0B
HAS73.016.7-17.3%9.3%$14.1B
ROST71.530.73.7%9.9%$66.4B
GTX71.511.83.1%8.6%$4.0B
DPZ71.121.95.1%12.4%$13.7B
CART69.719.911.0%13.5%$9.9B
EBAY69.618.31.7%19.3%$39.7B
GNTX68.314.30.6%17.5%$5.2B
MCRI66.117.24.4%18.6%$1.8B
CASY65.541.07.3%3.4%$25.2B
AMZN65.527.712.4%10.8%$2.2T
TXRH65.227.616.0%8.1%$12.2B
Sector Average47.336.96.3%-6.5%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy27 analysts
Buy: 16Hold: 10Sell: 1
Price Target
$146consensus
Low $130Median $142High $170
+38.2% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

PDD Holdings Inc., a multinational commerce group, owns and operates a portfolio of businesses. It operates Pinduoduo, an e-commerce platform that offers products in various categories, including agricultural produce, apparel, shoes, bags, mother and childcare products, food and beverage, electronic appliances, furniture and household goods, cosmetics and other personal care, sports and fitness items and auto accessories; and Temu, an online marketplace. It focuses on bringing businesses and people into the digital economy. The company was formerly known as Pinduoduo Inc. and changed its name to PDD Holdings Inc. in February 2023. The company was incorporated in 2015 and is based in Dublin, Ireland.

CEO
Lei Chen
Employees
23,465
Beta
-0.01
Industry
Specialty Retail
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
60.2
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-24.3%
High: $139.41
From 52W Low
+21.1%
Low: $87.11
Moving Averages
10-Day
$103.70
Above
20-Day
$103.60
Above
50-Day
$108.40
Below
200-Day
$116.10
Below
60-Day Support
$98.71
60-Day Resistance
$125.36
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 1 โ€” BasingScore: 42/100

Stock is building a base after a decline. The 200-day moving average is flattening. Watch for a breakout above the 200-day SMA on increased volume.

Monitor for breakout above 200-day SMA on volume
Transition signal: 1โ†’2
Price vs 200 SMA
-9.1%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-0.87%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
0.8x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
31
Confidence: 80%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$108.3B$104.0B$95.7B$110.6B
Gross Profit$61.4B$58.1B$54.7B$62.8B
Operating Income$25.0B$25.8B$16.1B$25.6B
Net Income$29.3B$30.8B$14.7B$27.4B
EPS (Diluted)$19.72$20.76$9.96$18.52
Gross Margin56.7%55.9%57.2%56.8%
Operating Margin23.1%24.8%16.8%23.1%
Net Margin27.1%29.6%15.4%24.8%

Why This Stock

Consumer CyclicalP/E ratio of 9.9Revenue growth 59.0%Profit margin 24.4%Earnings quality grade AValuation below sector median (P/E 9.9)

Tradability FilterGrade A โ€” 95/100Score impact: -10.7pt

Volume
100
8.7M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$922M/day
Float
80
0K shares
Mkt Cap
100
$146.8B
Range
90
60% spread
Composite Liquidity Score95/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$51.91$188.07113.5%Wide
2022$23.21$93.16120.2%Wide
2023$59.67$150.6686.5%Wide
2024$88.01$164.6960.7%Wide
2025$87.11$139.4146.2%Wide
3-Year Range
93.6%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
0.0%
Outstanding Shares
0M
Bid-Ask Spread
60.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.