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MELI

🛍️ Consumer Cyclical

MercadoLibre, Inc.

Conservative #332Aggressive #77Low RiskLow 39ML↑ 31pt
$1746.19-1.22%
Day High$1791.77
Day Low$1743.17
Volume0.2M
Mkt Cap$88.5B
52W Low $166552W High $2645
Market Cap
$100.8B
P/E Ratio
48.5
Sector avg: 45.1
Rev Growth
37.5%
Sector avg: 6.3%
Earnings Growth
93.6%
Profit Margin
9.2%
Sector avg: -6.5%
Debt/Equity
1.57

Why This Score

MELI scores 58.6 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 43.9% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • Large-cap ($101B) with deep liquidity and institutional ownership.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Elevated valuation at 48.5x earnings — requires sustained growth to justify the premium.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 1.57) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Moderate penalties (-3.7 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score58.6
Fundamental Score50.4
ML Score90.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
81.4
6 Month
91.0
Primary
1 Year
95.8

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
50
Basing
Sentiment (2.5%)
63
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
71
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
88
Grade A
Base
58.3
SHAP
+2.2
Factors
+1.8
Divergence
-3.7
Final
58.6
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

58AVG
Value55
Quality70
Growth90
Stability45
Investment30

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)65.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)52.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)83.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+6.5% to +11.9%
Medium-term
+9.8% to +17.8%
Long-term
+14.8% to +25.8%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 90

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score70.5/100
Target Upside+49.0%
Coverage33 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score62.9/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage1 — Basing
12M Momentum-0.1%
6M Momentum-0.2%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+13.3%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.32)
Relative Strength vs Sector-7.4%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.7)
Momentum Quality-0.048
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
0%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P97
Revenue growth vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector PE Rank
P13
Valuation vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector FCF Rank
P71
Free cash flow vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Growth Deviation
+2.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 61 relative to sector peers61/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 92th percentileP92
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +2.4pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (61.1) + 9% ML (91.6) + SHAP(+2.4) = 66.3—
Factor quality: +2.0pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 8.7%. Max drawdown 24% (-6.4 pts). Price momentum -6% (-0.3 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: +3.5 points ($100.8B market cap)+3.5 pts
Conviction penalty: -1.1pt (conviction=39)—
Divergence penalty: -3.1pt (ML 31pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -8 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-23.8%) — earnings quality concern; High leverage: D/E ratio of 1.6x — elevated balance sheet riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Cyclical — Rank #29 of 114 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
MELI58.648.537.5%9.2%$100.8B
MAR75.937.24.3%9.9%$93.8B
ABNB75.230.110.3%20.5%$72.8B
ULTA75.126.20.8%10.6%$30.6B
HAS73.016.7-17.3%9.3%$14.4B
ORLY71.932.55.7%14.3%$81.6B
ROST71.130.73.7%9.9%$63.9B
DPZ70.621.95.1%12.4%$12.7B
GTX69.711.83.1%8.6%$3.8B
CART69.119.911.0%13.5%$9.6B
EBAY68.518.31.7%19.3%$37.6B
GNTX68.214.30.6%17.5%$5.5B
AMZN65.327.712.4%10.8%$2.1T
CASY65.141.07.3%3.4%$24.7B
TXRH65.027.616.0%8.1%$12.0B
URBN63.213.37.7%7.3%$6.3B
Sector Average46.245.16.3%-6.5%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy33 analysts
Strong Buy: 1Buy: 25Hold: 7
Price Target
$2810consensus
Low $2600Median $2900High $2900
+60.9% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

MercadoLibre, Inc. operates online commerce platforms in Latin America. It operates Mercado Libre Marketplace, an automated online commerce platform that enables businesses, merchants, and individuals to list merchandise and conduct sales and purchases online; and Mercado Pago FinTech platform, a financial technology solution platform, which facilitates transactions on and off its marketplaces by providing a mechanism that allows its users to send and receive payments online, as well as allows users to transfer money through their websites or on the apps. The company also offers Mercado Fondo that allows users to invest funds deposited in their Mercado Pago accounts; Mercado Credito, which extends loans to certain merchants and consumers; and Mercado Envios logistics solution that enables sellers on its platform to utilize third-party carriers and other logistics service providers, as well as fulfillment and warehousing services for sellers. In addition, it provides Mercado Libre Classifieds, an online classified listing service, where users can list and purchase motor vehicles, real estate, and services; Mercado Libre Ads, an advertising platform, which enables large retailers and brands to promote their products and services on the Internet; and Mercado Shops, an online storefronts solution that enables users to set-up, manage, and promote their own digital stores. MercadoLibre, Inc. was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in Montevideo, Uruguay.

CEO
Ariel Szarfsztejn
Employees
84,207
Beta
1.45
Industry
Specialty Retail
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
26.6
Oversold
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-33.6%
High: $2645.22
From 52W Low
+6.2%
Low: $1654.24
Moving Averages
10-Day
$1928.50
Below
20-Day
$2001.70
Below
50-Day
$2046.90
Below
200-Day
$2260.70
Below
60-Day Support
$1654.24
60-Day Resistance
$2342
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 1 — BasingScore: 27/100

Stock is building a base after a decline. The 200-day moving average is flattening. Watch for a breakout above the 200-day SMA on increased volume.

Monitor for breakout above 200-day SMA on volume
Price vs 200 SMA
-22.3%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-0.63%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
1.19x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
21
Confidence: 70%
Recent Gap Down

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$8.8B$7.4B$6.8B$5.9B
Gross Profit$3.8B$3.2B$3.1B$2.8B
Operating Income$889M$724M$825M$763M
Net Income$559M$421M$523M$494M
EPS (Diluted)$11.03$8.30$10.32$9.74
Gross Margin43.2%43.3%45.6%46.7%
Operating Margin10.1%9.8%12.2%12.9%
Net Margin6.4%5.7%7.7%8.3%

Why This Stock

Consumer CyclicalRevenue growth 37.5%Earnings quality grade B

Tradability FilterGrade A — 88/100Score impact: -7.9pt

Volume
81
516K avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$963M/day
Float
77
47M shares
Mkt Cap
100
$100.8B
Range
87
53% spread
Composite Liquidity Score88/100
FDCBA

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
92.8%
Outstanding Shares
51M
Bid-Ask Spread
53.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.