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59

EXPE

🛍️ Consumer Cyclical

Expedia Group, Inc.

Conservative #313Aggressive #219Moderate RiskModerate 70ML↑ 15pt
Market Cap
$26.1B
P/E Ratio
21.7
Sector avg: 45.1
Rev Growth
7.6%
Sector avg: 6.3%
Earnings Growth
4.9%
Profit Margin
8.8%
Sector avg: -6.5%
Debt/Equity
5.00

Why This Score

EXPE scores 59.4 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 100.8% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (11.3%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 5.00) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Moderate penalties (-3.3 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score59.4
Fundamental Score51.3
ML Score88.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
78.6
6 Month
87.9
Primary
1 Year
92.5

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality
Quality Flags
Extreme leverage: D/E ratio of 5.0x — balance sheet risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
20
Topping
Sentiment (2.5%)
63
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
60
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
98
Grade A
Base
58.7
SHAP
+2.4
Factors
+1.6
Divergence
-3.3
Final
59.4
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

58AVG
Value70
Quality70
Growth60
Stability35
Investment55

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)52.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)51.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)81.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-5.2% to +1.2%
Medium-term
-7.8% to +1.8%
Long-term
-10.4% to +2.4%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 88

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score60.3/100
Target Upside+45.2%
Coverage75 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score63.0/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage3 — Topping
12M Momentum+0.1%
6M Momentum-0.0%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+8.9%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.08)
Relative Strength vs Sector+7.2%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.7)
Momentum Quality+0.062
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
12%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P68
Revenue growth vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector PE Rank
P42
Valuation vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector FCF Rank
P89
Free cash flow vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Growth Deviation
+0.2σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 70 relative to sector peers70/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 85th percentileP85
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.1pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (69.5) + 9% ML (84.7) + SHAP(+3.1) = 74.0—
Factor quality: +2.0pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 11.3%. Max drawdown 25% (-6.8 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: +2.0 points ($26.1B market cap)+2.0 pts
Divergence penalty: -0.7pt (ML 15pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade A: strong earnings quality and financial health. Score adjusted by -10 pointsGrade A
Quality concern: Extreme leverage: D/E ratio of 5.0x — balance sheet riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Cyclical — Rank #23 of 114 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
EXPE59.421.77.6%8.8%$26.1B
MAR75.937.24.3%9.9%$93.8B
ABNB75.230.110.3%20.5%$72.8B
ULTA75.126.20.8%10.6%$30.6B
HAS73.016.7-17.3%9.3%$14.4B
ORLY71.932.55.7%14.3%$81.6B
ROST71.130.73.7%9.9%$63.9B
DPZ70.621.95.1%12.4%$12.7B
GTX69.711.83.1%8.6%$3.8B
CART69.119.911.0%13.5%$9.6B
EBAY68.518.31.7%19.3%$37.6B
GNTX68.214.30.6%17.5%$5.5B
AMZN65.327.712.4%10.8%$2.1T
CASY65.141.07.3%3.4%$24.7B
TXRH65.027.616.0%8.1%$12.0B
URBN63.213.37.7%7.3%$6.3B
Sector Average46.245.16.3%-6.5%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

No analyst sentiment data available for EXPE.

Why This Stock

Consumer CyclicalP/E ratio of 21.7Earnings quality grade AValuation below sector median (P/E 21.7)

Tradability FilterGrade A — 98/100Score impact: -3.5pt

Volume
100
2.3M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$432M/day
Float
100
115M shares
Mkt Cap
86
$26.1B
Range
100
134% spread
Composite Liquidity Score98/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$136.77$191.8533.5%Moderate
2022$82.39$217.7290.2%Wide
2023$86.31$155.8457.4%Wide
2024$107.25$192.3456.8%Wide
2025$130.01$292.4276.9%Wide
3-Year Range
108.8%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.15x dampening
weinstein declining

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
98.6%
Outstanding Shares
117M
Bid-Ask Spread
134.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.