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54

TCOM

🛍️ Consumer Cyclical

Trip.com Group Limited

Conservative #451Aggressive #325Moderate RiskHigh 100
$53.66-0.20%
Day High$53.86
Day Low$52.59
Volume3.7M
Mkt Cap$35.1B
52W Low $5152W High $79
Market Cap
$35.6B
P/E Ratio
14.5
Sector avg: 45.1
Rev Growth
19.7%
Sector avg: 6.3%
Earnings Growth
72.1%
Profit Margin
32.0%
Sector avg: -6.5%
Debt/Equity
0.28

Why This Score

TCOM scores 54.3 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High net margin of 32.0%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Attractively valued at 14.5x earnings, below the market average.
  • High conviction (100/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.

Net penalties of -13.4 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, TCOM would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score54.3
Fundamental Score58.8
ML Score83.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
76.2
6 Month
85.2
Primary
1 Year
89.7

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality
Country Risk:
Score penalty of points applied for domicile risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
65
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
67
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
98
Grade A
Base
51.7
SHAP
+1.7
Factors
+0.7
Conviction
+1.6
Divergence
-1.4
Final
54.3
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

83AVG
Value85
Quality95
Growth90
Stability90
Investment55

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)76.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)49.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)83.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+2.6% to +7.4%
Medium-term
+4.5% to +11.9%
Long-term
+6.8% to +16.7%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 83

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score66.9/100
Target Upside+56.5%
Coverage43 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score65.4/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum-0.0%
6M Momentum-0.3%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+22.7%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.13)
Relative Strength vs Sector-4.6%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.4)
Momentum Quality-0.025
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
7%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P89
Revenue growth vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector PE Rank
P62
Valuation vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Sector FCF Rank
P97
Free cash flow vs Consumer Cyclical peers
Growth Deviation
+0.9σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 84 relative to sector peers84/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 80th percentileP80
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.7pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (84.1) + 9% ML (77.4) + SHAP(+3.7) = 87.2
Factor quality: +1.6pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 9.4%. Max drawdown 28% (-7.8 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: +2.0 points ($35.6B market cap)+2.0 pts
Conviction bonus: +3.6pt (conviction=100)
Risk Factors
Country risk: China -14.0pt [structural: -8pt, macro: -6.0pt] (VIE structure risk, HFCAA delisting risk, regulatory seizure precedent)Country

Sector Peer Comparison(Consumer Cyclical — Rank #40 of 114 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
TCOM54.314.519.7%32.0%$35.6B
MAR75.937.24.3%9.9%$93.8B
ABNB75.230.110.3%20.5%$72.8B
ULTA75.126.20.8%10.6%$30.6B
HAS73.016.7-17.3%9.3%$14.4B
ORLY71.932.55.7%14.3%$81.6B
ROST71.130.73.7%9.9%$63.9B
DPZ70.621.95.1%12.4%$12.7B
GTX69.711.83.1%8.6%$3.8B
CART69.119.911.0%13.5%$9.6B
EBAY68.518.31.7%19.3%$37.6B
GNTX68.214.30.6%17.5%$5.5B
AMZN65.327.712.4%10.8%$2.1T
CASY65.141.07.3%3.4%$24.7B
TXRH65.027.616.0%8.1%$12.0B
URBN63.213.37.7%7.3%$6.3B
Sector Average46.245.16.3%-6.5%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy43 analysts
Buy: 31Hold: 10Sell: 2
Price Target
$83consensus
Low $78Median $81High $90
+54.7% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Trip.com Group Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates as a travel service provider for accommodation reservation, transportation ticketing, packaged tours and in-destination, corporate travel management, and other travel-related services in China and internationally. The company acts as an agent for hotel-related transactions and selling air tickets, as well as provides train, long-distance bus, and ferry tickets; travel insurance products, such as flight delay, air accident, and baggage loss coverage; and air-ticket delivery, online check-in and seat selection, express security screening, real-time flight status tracker, and airport VIP lounge services. It also provides independent leisure travelers bundled packaged-tour products comprising group, semi-group, and customized and packaged tours with various transportation arrangements, including air, cruise, bus, and car rental services. In addition, the company offers integrated transportation and accommodation services; destination transportation and ticket, activity, insurance, visa, and tour guide services; user support, supplier management, and customer relationship management services; and in-destination products and services. Further, It provides its corporate clients with business visit, incentive trip, meeting and conference, travel data collection and analysis, and industry benchmarking solutions; and Corporate Travel Management System, an online platform that integrates information management, online booking and authorization, online inquiry, and travel reporting systems. Additionally, the company offers online advertising and financial services, such as marketing planning and travel media services. It operates under the Ctrip, Qunar, Trip.com, and Skyscanner brands. The company was formerly known as Ctrip.com International, Ltd. and changed its name to Trip.com Group Limited in October 2019. Trip.com Group Limited was founded in 1999 and is based in Singapore.

CEO
Jie Sun
Employees
41,073
Beta
-0.18
Industry
Travel Services
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
37.4
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-32.1%
High: $78.99
From 52W Low
+4.5%
Low: $51.35
Moving Averages
10-Day
$55.00
Below
20-Day
$57.40
Below
50-Day
$65.10
Below
200-Day
$66.60
Below
60-Day Support
$52.33
60-Day Resistance
$78.99
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 4/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-19.4%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+2.29%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.02x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
29
Confidence: 40%
Recent Gap Down

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$18.3B$14.8B$13.8B$12.7B
Gross Profit$15.0B$12.0B$11.1B$10.1B
Operating Income$5.6B$4.1B$3.6B$2.3B
Net Income$19.9B$4.8B$4.3B$2.2B
EPS (Diluted)$28.61$6.97$6.09$3.09
Gross Margin81.7%81.0%80.4%79.3%
Operating Margin30.4%27.6%25.8%18.1%
Net Margin108.5%32.6%30.9%16.9%

Why This Stock

Consumer CyclicalP/E ratio of 14.5Revenue growth 19.7%Profit margin 32.0%Earnings quality grade AValuation below sector median (P/E 14.5)

Tradability FilterGrade A — 98/100Score impact: -18.6pt

Volume
100
3.4M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$181M/day
Float
100
592M shares
Mkt Cap
92
$35.6B
Range
87
54% spread
Composite Liquidity Score98/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$21.40$45.1971.5%Wide
2022$14.29$35.9986.3%Wide
2023$30.70$43.5934.7%Moderate
2024$34.42$77.1876.6%Wide
2025$51.35$78.6542%Wide
3-Year Range
87.7%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
90.7%
Outstanding Shares
654M
Bid-Ask Spread
54.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.