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29

ATLCZ

🏦 Financial Services

Atlanticus Holdings Corporation 9.25% Senior Notes due 2029

Conservative #1100Aggressive #1310Low RiskML↑ 30pt
$25.58-0.16%
Day High$25.65
Day Low$25.58
Volume0.0M
Mkt Cap$387M
52W Low $2352W High $26
Market Cap
$388M
P/E Ratio
7.0
Sector avg: 26.8
Rev Growth
25.7%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
8.2%
Profit Margin
20.1%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
9.63

Why This Score

ATLCZ scores 29.3 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 21.3% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • High net margin of 20.1%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Attractively valued at 7.0x earnings, below the market average.
  • Low volatility (1.4% annualized) — well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (11%) — steady appreciation without overheating.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 25-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 9.63) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Net penalties of -33.3 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, ATLCZ would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score29.3
Fundamental Score66.1
ML Score29.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
72.8
6 Month
81.3
Primary
1 Year
85.6

Quality Assessment

C
Quality Grade
Average quality — moderate profitability or leverage
2 quality flags detected — see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (-321.4%) — earnings quality concern
Extreme leverage: D/E ratio of 9.6x — balance sheet risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
20
Topping
Sentiment (2.5%)
43
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
50
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
0
Grade Fvery low volume, very low dollar volume
Base
28.6
SHAP
+3.2
Factors
+0.8
Divergence
-3.3
Final
29.3
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

70AVG
Value89
Quality54
Growth72
Stability72
Investment62

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)63.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)82.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)61.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+0.4% to +4.8%
Medium-term
+1.3% to +8.0%
Long-term
+2.1% to +11.1%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 29

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score50.0/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage0 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score42.7/100
News Volume0 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage3 — Topping
12M Momentum+0.1%
6M Momentum+0.0%
Volatility+0.0%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+5.9%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.45)
Relative Strength vs Sector+1.7%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+0.105
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
15%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P84
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P93
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P98
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.3σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 66 relative to sector peers66/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 29th percentileP29
Blended score: 80% fundamental (66) + 20% ML (29) = 58.758.7
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.0%; Drawdown 1% → 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade C
SHAP feature alignment: +3.2pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Divergence penalty: -3.3pt (ML 37pt lower)Divergence
Risk Factors
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-321.4%) — earnings quality concern; Extreme leverage: D/E ratio of 9.6x — balance sheet riskFlag
Liquidity penalty: -25.0pt (grade F)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services — Rank #279 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
ATLCZ29.37.025.7%20.1%$388M
CME86.427.29.9%57.5%$114.0B
FHB84.911.83.2%24.2%$3.1B
ACT84.58.92.4%54.6%$6.1B
CINF84.210.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
SEIC82.214.010.7%27.3%$9.9B
TROW79.910.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
QQQX79.710.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
IBOC78.210.67.5%40.1%$4.2B
HWC77.812.2-1.5%24.1%$5.6B
FFIN77.518.811.7%30.7%$4.7B
TRMK77.111.934.8%19.3%$2.6B
NMIH77.17.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
EWBC76.712.74.6%28.3%$15.3B
WSFS76.312.8-3.1%21.1%$3.5B
MCHB76.1N/A123.7%23.2%$3.1B
Sector Average47.526.813.4%-2.8%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

No analyst sentiment data available for ATLCZ.

Company Overviewvia FMP

Atlanticus Holdings Corporation provides credit and related financial services and products to customers the United States. It operates in two segments, Credit as a Service, and Auto Finance. The Credit as a Service segment originates a range of consumer loan products, such as private label and general purpose credit cards originated by lenders through various channels, including retail and healthcare, direct mail solicitation, digital marketing, and partnerships with third parties; and offers credit to their customers for the purchase of various goods and services, including consumer electronics, furniture, elective medical procedures, healthcare, educational services, and home-improvements by partnering with retailers and service providers. In addition, it offers loan servicing, such as risk management and customer service outsourcing for third parties; and engages in testing and investment activities in consumer finance technology platforms. The Auto Finance segment purchases and/or services loans secured by automobiles from or for a pre-qualified network of independent automotive dealers and automotive finance companies in the buy-here, pay-here, and used car business. This segment also provides floor plan financing and installment lending products. Further, the company invests in and services portfolios of credit card receivables. Atlanticus Holdings Corporation was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

CEO
Jeffrey A. Howard
Employees
417
Beta
1.96
Industry
Financial - Credit Services
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
61.5
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-1.2%
High: $25.89
From 52W Low
+9.3%
Low: $23.4
Moving Averages
10-Day
$25.60
Below
20-Day
$25.60
Below
50-Day
$25.60
Below
200-Day
$25.40
Above
60-Day Support
$25.07
60-Day Resistance
$25.89
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 3 — ToppingScore: 6/100

Stock is losing momentum near highs. The 200-day SMA is flattening or beginning to turn. Historically, this stage precedes distribution.

Exercise caution; tighten risk management
Price vs 200 SMA
+0.7%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+0.64%
Flattening
Volume Ratio
1.05x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 70%
Key Reversal Detected (2026-02-27)

Entry & Exit Zones

Avoid
$24.34
Stop Entry Now Target
$26.35
No Entry
—
No new entry — distribution phase
Exit Target
$25.58
Reduce at current price ($25.58)
Stop Level
$25.09
Below SMA50 ($25.09)

Stage 3 distribution — institutional selling pressure is building. Avoid new positions. If already holding, consider reducing and tightening stops below SMA50.

Technical zones only — derived from moving averages and price structure. Not financial advice. Past technical patterns do not guarantee future performance.

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$179M$143M$135M$133M
Gross Profit$102M$88M$86M$82M
Operating Income$32M$40M$41M$40M
Net Income$25M$31M$32M$31M
EPS (Diluted)$1.18$1.51$1.49$1.42
Gross Margin56.9%61.6%63.9%61.2%
Operating Margin18.2%28.0%30.3%29.9%
Net Margin14.0%21.3%23.4%23.5%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 7.0Revenue growth 25.7%Profit margin 20.1%

Tradability FilterGrade F — 0/100Score impact: -17.9pt

Low Tradability Warning

This stock has limited trading volume and/or float. Institutional investors may face difficulty entering or exiting positions without significant price impact. A post-hoc penalty has been applied to the composite score (this is not a backtested model factor — it is a practical tradability overlay).

Volume
0
22K avg/day
Dollar Vol
0
$563K/day
Float
0
9M shares
Mkt Cap
0
$388M
Range
0
11% spread
Composite Liquidity Score0/100
FDCBA
very low volumevery low dollar volumelow floatsmall caprange bound

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Range-BoundSideways: 100/100
Range-Bound Stock

This stock has traded in a compressed range for 2 of the last 2 years (3-year range: 10%). Range-bound stocks may indicate limited upside potential. A -5pt penalty has been applied.

YearLowHighRangeStatus
2024$24.05$25.505.9%Narrow
2025$23.40$25.8610%Narrow
3-Year Range
10%
Narrow Years
2 / 2
Sideways Penalty
-5pt

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
range bound

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
62.4%
Outstanding Shares
15M
Bid-Ask Spread
11.0%
Institutional Tradable
No

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.