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MSTR

💻 Technology

Strategy Inc

Conservative #1383Aggressive #962High RiskLow 10F↑ 30pt
$135.65+8.86%
Day High$137.86
Day Low$128.94
Volume23.8M
Mkt Cap$37.7B
52W Low $10452W High $457
Market Cap
$44.5B
P/E Ratio
1.9
Sector avg: 87.8
Rev Growth
-6.6%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
-371.9%
Profit Margin
-251.7%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
0.40

Why This Score

MSTR scores 10.9 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Attractively valued at 1.9x earnings, below the market average.
  • ML model assigns a high-conviction signal (100/100), indicating strong pattern recognition across 82 features.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.
  • Above-average volatility (16.2%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Net penalties of -36.0 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, MSTR would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score10.9
Fundamental Score25.0
ML Score100.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
6.2
6 Month
6.9
Primary
1 Year
7.3

Quality Assessment

F
Earnings Grade
Weak fundamentals or significant quality concerns
Quality Flags
P/E of 1.9x with operating margin of -399.8% — P/E is likely distorted by one-time earnings
Speculative Classification
Crypto/BTC mining company — earnings are macro-trade dependent, not fundamental. Better suited as a tactical position sized around BTC conviction.
Conservative score reduced by 15 points.

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
4.9%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
28
Negative
Analyst (6.4%)
50
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
99
Grade A
Base
22.0
SHAP
+2.4
Factors
-0.7
Conviction
-3.8
Divergence
-9.0
Final
10.9
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

55AVG
Value95
Quality40
Growth35
Stability75
Investment30

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)37.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)24.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)57.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage96%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-30.8% to -18.8%
Medium-term
-44.3% to -28.3%
Long-term
-63.8% to -39.8%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 100

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score50.0/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage0 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score27.5/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum-0.5%
6M Momentum-0.6%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+12.4%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.79)
Relative Strength vs Sector-51.2%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (2.9)
Momentum Quality-0.158
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
69%
High risk — cheap + stagnating
Sector RevGr Rank
P10
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P78
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P99
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
-0.4σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
YES
Below-sector growth + cheap PE
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 52 relative to sector peers52/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 22th percentileP22
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +2.4pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (51.9) + 9% ML (22.0) + SHAP(+2.4) = 51.6—
Factor quality: -0.7pt (multi-factor composite)—
Market cap adjustment: +2.0 points ($44.5B market cap)+2.0 pts
Conviction penalty: -3.8pt (conviction=10)—
Divergence penalty: -3.0pt (fund 30pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Risk assessment: high. Annualized volatility 16.2%. Max drawdown 67% (-12.0 pts). Price momentum -48% (-8.5 pts)High
Earnings quality grade F: assessed. Score adjusted by -30 pointsGrade F
Quality concern: Non-operating gain: net margin (-251.7%) exceeds operating margin (-399.8%) by 148pp — likely one-time item; P/E of 1.9x with operating margin of -399.8% — P/E is likely distorted by one-time earnings; MSTR has ~92% correlation with Bitcoin. Revenue and earnings are primarily driven by Bitcoin price, not operational improvement. Score reflects Bitcoin momentum, not company-specific alpha.Flag

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology — Rank #285 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
MSTR10.91.9-6.6%-251.7%$44.5B
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
Sector Average47.487.814.8%-110.0%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy29 analysts
Buy: 17Hold: 9Sell: 3
Price Target
$364consensus
Low $175Median $294High $705
+168.4% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Strategy Inc, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a bitcoin treasury company in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and internationally. The company offers investors varying degrees of economic exposure to Bitcoin by offering a range of securities, including equity and fixed income instruments. It also provides AI-powered enterprise analytics software, including Strategy One, which provides non-technical users with the ability to directly access novel and actionable insights for decision-making; and Strategy Mosaic, a universal intelligence layer that offers enterprises with consistent definitions and governance across data sources, regardless of where that data resides or which tools access it. The company was formerly known as MicroStrategy Incorporated and changed its name to Strategy Inc in August 2025. The company was incorporated in 1989 and is headquartered in Tysons Corner, Virginia.

CEO
Phong Q. Le
Employees
1,546
Beta
3.54
Industry
Software - Application
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
52.9
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-70.3%
High: $457.22
From 52W Low
+30.2%
Low: $104.17
Moving Averages
10-Day
$128.10
Above
20-Day
$132.40
Above
50-Day
$150.70
Below
200-Day
$287.40
Below
60-Day Support
$104.17
60-Day Resistance
$198.4
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 10/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-52.8%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-14.03%
Falling
Volume Ratio
0.89x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
97
Confidence: 90%
Recent Gap Up

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$123M$129M$114M$111M
Gross Profit$81M$91M$79M$77M
Operating Income$-17.4B$3.9B$14.0B$-5.9B
Net Income$-12.6B$2.8B$10.0B$-4.2B
EPS (Diluted)$-42.93$8.42$32.60$-16.49
Gross Margin66.1%70.5%68.8%69.4%
Operating Margin-14184.8%3023.4%12256.3%-5331.4%
Net Margin-10261.1%2164.1%8752.7%-3797.2%

Why This Stock

TechnologyP/E ratio of 1.9

Tradability FilterGrade A — 99/100Score impact: -49.4pt

Volume
100
23.2M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$2.9B/day
Float
100
293M shares
Mkt Cap
92
$44.5B
Range
100
339% spread
Composite Liquidity Score99/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$41.16$89.1473.6%Wide
2022$13.26$57.63125.2%Wide
2023$13.94$68.94132.7%Wide
2024$43.87$543.00170.1%Wide
2025$151.42$457.22100.5%Wide
3-Year Range
190%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.35x dampening
weinstein basingrevenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
105.5%
Outstanding Shares
278M
Bid-Ask Spread
339.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.