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ALRS

๐Ÿฆ Financial Services

Alerus Financial Corporation

Conservative #902Aggressive #1275Low RiskLow 34MLโ†‘ 33pt
$24.73-0.44%
Day High$25.20
Day Low$24.73
Volume0.0M
Mkt Cap$628M
52W Low $1652W High $26
Market Cap
$646M
P/E Ratio
37.1
Sector avg: 26.8
Rev Growth
0.3%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
-1.7%
Profit Margin
5.3%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.78

Why This Score

ALRS scores 38.4 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Low volatility (5.2% annualized) โ€” well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (29%) โ€” steady appreciation without overheating.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 15-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.

Net penalties of -19.0 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, ALRS would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score38.4
Fundamental Score61.7
ML Score20.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
65.2
6 Month
72.8
Primary
1 Year
76.7

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns
Quality Flags
False stability: 0.052 vol with only 0.3% revenue growth โ€” stagnation, not safety

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
61
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
60
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
38
Grade Dlow volume, low dollar volume
Base
38.4
SHAP
+3.3
Factors
+0.7
Divergence
-4.0
Final
38.4
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)38.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)85.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)80.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-1.2% to +2.9%
Medium-term
-1.3% to +5.0%
Long-term
-1.3% to +7.1%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 20

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score60.0/100
Target Upside+19.2%
Coverage5 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score60.8/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+0.3%
6M Momentum+0.2%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+13.4%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.54)
Relative Strength vs Sector+20.1%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+0.277
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
5%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P40
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P13
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P68
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
-0.1ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 43 relative to sector peers43/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 76th percentileP76
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +4.4pt (features align with model priorities)โ€”
Blend: 91% fund (43.0) + 9% ML (76.1) + SHAP(+4.4) = 50.4โ€”
Factor quality: +1.0pt (multi-factor composite)โ€”
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 5.2%. Stability bonus of +11.5 pointsLow
Market cap adjustment: -15.0 points ($0.6B market cap)-15.0 pts
Conviction penalty: -1.5pt (conviction=34)โ€”
Divergence penalty: -3.5pt (ML 33pt higher)โ€”
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -24 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-20.4%) โ€” earnings quality concern; False stability: 0.1 vol with only 0.3% revenue growth โ€” stagnation, not safety; CRE concentration risk: regional bank with likely elevated commercial real estate exposure โ€” forward-looking impairment risk not captured by trailing fundamentalsFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services โ€” Rank #251 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
ALRS38.437.10.3%5.3%$646M
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$112.1B
CINF82.410.711.4%18.9%$25.8B
ACT81.98.92.4%54.6%$6.1B
SEIC81.014.010.7%27.3%$10.1B
TROW79.510.13.1%28.5%$21.1B
FHB78.111.83.2%24.2%$3.2B
MCHB77.4N/A123.7%23.2%$3.3B
TRMK75.711.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
BCAL74.49.926.2%27.1%$605M
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.1B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$26.2B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.7B
FFIN73.118.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
VLY72.512.5-2.2%17.1%$7.4B
QQQX72.010.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
Sector Average45.726.813.4%-2.8%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Hold5 analysts
Strong Buy: 1Hold: 4
Price Target
$29consensus
Low $29Median $29High $29
+17.3% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Alerus Financial Corporation, through its subsidiary, Alerus Financial, National Association, provides various financial services to businesses and consumers. The company operates in four segments: Banking, Retirement and Benefit Services, Wealth Management, and Mortgage. It offers various deposit products, including demand deposits, interest-bearing transaction accounts, money market accounts, time and savings deposits, checking accounts, and certificates of deposit; and treasury management products, including electronic receivables management, remote deposit capture, cash vault services, merchant services, and other cash management services. The company also provides commercial loans, business term loans, lines of credit, and commercial real estate loans, as well as construction and land development loans; consumer lending products, including residential first mortgage loans; installment loans and lines of credit; and second mortgage loans. In addition, it offers retirement plan administration and investment advisory services, employee stock ownership plan, fiduciary services, payroll, health savings accounts, and other benefit services, as well as individual retirement accounts; and financial planning, investment management, personal and corporate trust, estate administration, and custody services. Further, the company provides debit and credit cards, online banking, mobile banking/wallet, payment, private banking, payroll accounts, flex spending accounts, administration, and government health insurance program services. It offers banking services through fourteen offices in North Dakota, Minnesota, and Arizona; and retirement and benefit plans in 50 states through offices located in Michigan, Minnesota, and Colorado. The company was formerly known as First National Bank North Dakota and changed its name to Alerus Financial Corporation in 2000. Alerus Financial Corporation was founded in 1879 and is headquartered in Grand Forks, North Dakota.

CEO
Katie A. Lorenson
Employees
846
Beta
0.63
Industry
Banks - Regional
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
42.5
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-5.8%
High: $26.32
From 52W Low
+57.2%
Low: $15.78
Moving Averages
10-Day
$25.00
Below
20-Day
$25.10
Below
50-Day
$24.00
Above
200-Day
$22.40
Above
60-Day Support
$21.42
60-Day Resistance
$26.32
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 73/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+10.7%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+6.95%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.76x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$33M$99M$101M$95M
Gross Profit$9M$72M$74M$67M
Operating Income$-43M$22M$26M$18M
Net Income$-33M$17M$20M$13M
EPS (Diluted)$-1.30$0.65$0.78$0.52
Gross Margin25.5%72.2%72.9%70.7%
Operating Margin-129.6%22.2%26.0%18.4%
Net Margin-98.8%17.1%20.0%14.0%

Why This Stock

Financial Services

Tradability FilterGrade D โ€” 38/100Score impact: -9.0pt

Low Tradability Warning

This stock has limited trading volume and/or float. Institutional investors may face difficulty entering or exiting positions without significant price impact. A post-hoc penalty has been applied to the composite score (this is not a backtested model factor โ€” it is a practical tradability overlay).

Volume
24
123K avg/day
Dollar Vol
25
$3M/day
Float
53
23M shares
Mkt Cap
32
$646M
Range
93
67% spread
Composite Liquidity Score38/100
FDCBA
low volumelow dollar volume

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$25.95$38.3138.5%Wide
2022$20.20$30.4940.6%Wide
2023$13.11$23.7857.8%Wide
2024$18.09$25.8535.3%Wide
2025$15.78$24.3342.6%Wide
3-Year Range
65.4%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
stagnation flag

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
92.3%
Outstanding Shares
25M
Bid-Ask Spread
67.0%
Institutional Tradable
No

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.