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71

WTFC

🏦 Financial Services

Wintrust Financial Corporation

Conservative #94Aggressive #332Low RiskMixed 51ML↑ 24pt
$149.92+0.71%
Day High$151.06
Day Low$148.96
Volume0.4M
Mkt Cap$10.0B
52W Low $8952W High $163
Market Cap
$10.5B
P/E Ratio
12.7
Sector avg: 49.4
Rev Growth
6.7%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
18.5%
Profit Margin
19.5%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.62

Why This Score

WTFC scores 70.5 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Attractively valued at 12.7x earnings, below the market average.
  • Low volatility (4.7% annualized) — well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (26%) — steady appreciation without overheating.

No material penalties applied. WTFC ranks #94 based on its factor profile and ML signal alignment.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score70.5
Fundamental Score69.3
ML Score55.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
71.0
6 Month
79.4
Primary
1 Year
83.5

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
62
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
68
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
88
Grade A
Base
66.7
SHAP
+3.3
Factors
+0.7
Divergence
-0.2
Final
70.5
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)66.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)84.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)83.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-0.4% to +3.9%
Medium-term
+0.3% to +6.8%
Long-term
+0.9% to +9.7%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 55

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score68.2/100
Target Upside+16.5%
Coverage22 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score61.9/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.3%
6M Momentum+0.1%
Volatility+0.0%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+12.7%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.51)
Relative Strength vs Sector+17.1%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+0.247
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
11%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P58
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P52
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P52
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 60 relative to sector peers60/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 84th percentileP84
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +4.3pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (59.7) + 9% ML (84.1) + SHAP(+4.3) = 66.2—
Factor quality: +0.9pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 4.7%. Stability bonus of +12.0 pointsLow
Market cap adjustment: +2.0 points ($10.5B market cap)+2.0 pts
Divergence penalty: -2.1pt (ML 24pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -8 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (20.0%) — earnings quality concern; CRE concentration risk: regional bank with likely elevated commercial real estate exposure — forward-looking impairment risk not captured by trailing fundamentalsFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services — Rank #24 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
WTFC70.512.76.7%19.5%$10.5B
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$109.0B
CINF82.310.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
ACT82.08.92.4%54.6%$6.0B
SEIC80.914.010.7%27.3%$9.6B
TROW79.310.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
FHB78.311.83.2%24.2%$3.3B
MCHB77.70.0123.7%23.2%$3.4B
TRMK75.611.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
BCAL74.39.926.2%27.1%$613M
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
FFIN73.218.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$24.8B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.9B
VLY72.412.5-2.2%17.1%$7.5B
QQQX72.310.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
Sector Average45.849.413.4%-2.8%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy22 analysts
Strong Buy: 1Buy: 14Hold: 7
Price Target
$173consensus
Low $160Median $174High $185
+15.4% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Wintrust Financial Corporation operates as a financial holding company. It operates in three segments: Community Banking, Specialty Finance, and Wealth Management. The Community Banking segment offers non-interest bearing deposits, non-brokered interest-bearing transaction accounts, and savings and domestic time deposits; home equity, consumer, and real estate loans; safe deposit facilities; and automatic teller machine (ATM), online and mobile banking, and other services. It also engages in the retail origination and purchase of residential mortgages for sale into the secondary market; and provision of lending, deposits, and treasury management services to condominium, homeowner, and community associations, as well as asset-based lending for middle-market companies. In addition, this segment offers loan and deposit services to mortgage brokerage companies; lending to restaurant franchisees; direct leasing; small business administration loans; commercial mortgages and construction loans; and financial solutions. It provides personal and commercial banking services primarily to individuals, small to mid-sized businesses, local governmental units, and institutional clients. The Specialty Finance segment offers commercial and life insurance premiums financing for businesses and individuals; accounts receivable financing, value-added, and out-sourced administrative services; and other specialty finance services, as well as data processing of payrolls, billing, and cash management services to temporary staffing industry. The Wealth Management segment provides trust and investment, asset management, tax-deferred exchange, securities brokerage, and retirement plan services. The company operates 173 banking facilities and 228 ATMs in the Chicago metropolitan area, southern Wisconsin, northwest Indiana, and Florida. Wintrust Financial Corporation was founded in 1991 and is headquartered in Rosemont, Illinois.

CEO
Timothy S. Crane
Employees
5,903
Beta
0.85
Industry
Banks - Regional
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
37.6
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-8%
High: $162.96
From 52W Low
+68.3%
Low: $89.1
Moving Averages
10-Day
$152.50
Below
20-Day
$153.20
Below
50-Day
$147.90
Above
200-Day
$133.70
Above
60-Day Support
$133.38
60-Day Resistance
$162.96
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 75/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+12.1%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+8.02%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.81x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
67
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$1.1B$1.1B$1.0B$1.0B
Gross Profit$687M$676M$649M$619M
Operating Income$302M$296M$267M$253M
Net Income$223M$216M$196M$189M
EPS (Diluted)$3.30$2.79$2.78$2.69
Gross Margin63.2%61.8%62.1%61.7%
Operating Margin27.8%27.0%25.6%25.2%
Net Margin20.5%19.8%18.7%18.8%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 12.7Profit margin 19.5%

Tradability FilterGrade A — 88/100Score impact: +5.6pt

Volume
80
496K avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$74M/day
Float
86
66M shares
Mkt Cap
80
$10.5B
Range
100
83% spread
Composite Liquidity Score88/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$65.66$97.1138.6%Wide
2022$76.13$105.5632.4%Moderate
2023$57.48$98.2352.3%Wide
2024$89.68$142.0445.2%Wide
2025$89.10$144.7047.6%Wide
3-Year Range
86.3%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
98.5%
Outstanding Shares
67M
Bid-Ask Spread
83.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.