Back to Dashboard
66

CBSH

🏦 Financial Services

Commerce Bancshares, Inc.

Conservative #170Aggressive #575Low RiskHigh 80
Market Cap
$8.0B
P/E Ratio
13.1
Sector avg: 49.4
Rev Growth
2.2%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
7.6%
Profit Margin
26.5%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.79

Why This Score

CBSH scores 65.9 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 15.4% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • High net margin of 26.5%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Attractively valued at 13.1x earnings, below the market average.
  • Low volatility (4.0% annualized) — well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
  • High conviction (80/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.

No material penalties applied. CBSH ranks #170 based on its factor profile and ML signal alignment.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score65.9
Fundamental Score63.4
ML Score56.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
54.8
6 Month
61.2
Primary
1 Year
64.4

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns
Quality Flags
False stability: 0.040 vol with only 2.2% revenue growth — stagnation, not safety

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
50
Basing
Sentiment (2.5%)
34
Negative
Analyst (6.4%)
50
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
90
Grade A
Base
61.9
SHAP
+2.5
Factors
+0.5
Conviction
+1.0
Final
65.9
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)66.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)58.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)59.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-5.2% to +1.3%
Medium-term
-7.5% to +2.2%
Long-term
-9.8% to +3.0%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 56

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score50.0/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage15 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score34.3/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage1 — Basing
12M Momentum-0.1%
6M Momentum-0.1%
Volatility+0.0%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-3.6%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.70)
Relative Strength vs Sector-20.7%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (3.0)
Momentum Quality-0.100
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
9%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P44
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P50
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P33
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
-0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 54 relative to sector peers54/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 64th percentileP64
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +3.0pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (54.4) + 9% ML (64.4) + SHAP(+3.0) = 58.3
Factor quality: +0.6pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 4.0%. Stability bonus of +12.0 points. Max drawdown 16% (-3.1 pts). Price momentum -12% (-1.4 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($8.0B market cap)+0.5 pts
Conviction bonus: +1.2pt (conviction=80)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -19 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (57.2%) — earnings quality concern; False stability: 0.0 vol with only 2.2% revenue growth — stagnation, not safety; CRE concentration risk: regional bank with likely elevated commercial real estate exposure — forward-looking impairment risk not captured by trailing fundamentalsFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services — Rank #51 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
CBSH65.913.12.2%26.5%$8.0B
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$109.0B
CINF82.310.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
ACT82.08.92.4%54.6%$6.0B
SEIC80.914.010.7%27.3%$9.6B
TROW79.310.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
FHB78.311.83.2%24.2%$3.3B
MCHB77.70.0123.7%23.2%$3.4B
TRMK75.611.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
BCAL74.39.926.2%27.1%$613M
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
FFIN73.218.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$24.8B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.9B
VLY72.412.5-2.2%17.1%$7.5B
QQQX72.310.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
Sector Average45.849.413.4%-2.8%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

No analyst sentiment data available for CBSH.

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 13.1Profit margin 26.5%

Tradability FilterGrade A — 90/100Score impact: +15.8pt

Volume
100
1.2M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$64M/day
Float
100
125M shares
Mkt Cap
74
$8.0B
Range
40
30% spread
Composite Liquidity Score90/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 19/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$53.39$68.3324.5%Narrow
2022$54.25$65.8519.3%Narrow
2023$38.97$63.6748.1%Wide
2024$47.09$72.7542.8%Wide
2025$48.69$68.8734.3%Moderate
3-Year Range
60.5%
Narrow Years
2 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.49x dampening
weinstein basingstagnation flag

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
84.2%
Outstanding Shares
149M
Bid-Ask Spread
30.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.