Back to Dashboard
65

BPOP

🏦 Financial Services

Popular, Inc.

Conservative #198Aggressive #397Low RiskMixed 52ML↑ 24pt
$142.91+1.14%
Day High$143.14
Day Low$141.22
Volume0.0M
Mkt Cap$9.5B
52W Low $7852W High $149
Market Cap
$9.8B
P/E Ratio
11.7
Sector avg: 49.4
Rev Growth
5.7%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
35.6%
Profit Margin
19.2%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.23

Why This Score

BPOP scores 65.0 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Attractively valued at 11.7x earnings, below the market average.
Risk Factors
  • Signal divergence: Fundamental and ML signals disagree by a significant margin, reducing confidence.

Minor adjustments (-1.2 points) applied. BPOP's rank of #198 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score65.0
Fundamental Score66.7
ML Score44.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
75.7
6 Month
84.6
Primary
1 Year
89.0

Quality Assessment

A
Earnings Grade
Strong fundamentals, high earnings quality

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
67
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
70
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
89
Grade A
Base
62.2
SHAP
+3.2
Factors
+0.8
Divergence
-1.2
Final
65.0
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)72.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)85.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)84.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+3.5% to +8.4%
Medium-term
+6.2% to +13.7%
Long-term
+8.9% to +19.0%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 44

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score70.0/100
Target Upside+6.8%
Coverage20 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score66.5/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+0.5%
6M Momentum+0.1%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+31.0%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.33)
Relative Strength vs Sector+37.0%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+0.405
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
13%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P55
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P59
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P49
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 53 relative to sector peers53/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 78th percentileP78
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +5.0pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (53.4) + 9% ML (77.6) + SHAP(+5.0) = 60.6
Factor quality: +1.3pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 6.5%. Stability bonus of +9.0 points. Max drawdown 12% (-1.5 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: +0.5 points ($9.8B market cap)+0.5 pts
Divergence penalty: -2.1pt (ML 24pt higher)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade A: strong earnings quality and financial health. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade A
Quality concern: CRE concentration risk: regional bank with likely elevated commercial real estate exposure — forward-looking impairment risk not captured by trailing fundamentalsFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services — Rank #61 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
BPOP65.011.75.7%19.2%$9.8B
CME84.927.29.9%57.5%$109.0B
CINF82.310.711.4%18.9%$25.4B
ACT82.08.92.4%54.6%$6.0B
SEIC80.914.010.7%27.3%$9.6B
TROW79.310.13.1%28.5%$20.5B
FHB78.311.83.2%24.2%$3.3B
MCHB77.70.0123.7%23.2%$3.4B
TRMK75.611.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
BCAL74.39.926.2%27.1%$613M
NMIH73.97.78.4%55.1%$3.0B
FFIN73.218.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TW73.130.018.9%39.6%$24.8B
VCTR73.118.38.8%32.3%$4.9B
VLY72.412.5-2.2%17.1%$7.5B
QQQX72.310.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
Sector Average45.849.413.4%-2.8%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy20 analysts
Buy: 16Hold: 4
Price Target
$151consensus
Low $142Median $153High $156
+5.5% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Popular, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides various retail, mortgage, and commercial banking products and services in Puerto Rico, the United States, and British Virgin Islands. The company provides savings, NOW, money market, and other interest-bearing demand accounts; non-interest bearing demand deposits; and certificates of deposit. It also offers commercial and industrial, commercial multi-family, commercial real estate, and residential mortgage loans; consumer loans, including personal loans, credit cards, automobile loans, home equity lines of credit, and other loans to individual borrowers; construction loans; and lease financing comprising automobile loans/leases. In addition, the company provides investment banking, auto and equipment leasing and financing, broker-dealer, and insurance services; debit cards; and online banking services. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 169 branches; and 616 ATMs in Puerto Rico, 23 ATMs in the Virgin Islands, and 91 ATMs in the United States Mainland. Popular, Inc. was founded in 1893 and is headquartered in Hato Rey, Puerto Rico.

CEO
Javier D. Ferrer-Fernández
Employees
9,274
Beta
0.63
Industry
Banks - Regional
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
47.6
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-5.2%
High: $149.31
From 52W Low
+80.9%
Low: $78.23
Moving Averages
10-Day
$143.10
Below
20-Day
$142.30
Below
50-Day
$132.70
Above
200-Day
$119.60
Above
60-Day Support
$113.26
60-Day Resistance
$149.31
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 82/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+18.3%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+10.2%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.86x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$1.1B$1.1B$1.1B$1.0B
Gross Profit$754M$704M$713M$656M
Operating Income$279M$247M$258M$223M
Net Income$234M$211M$210M$178M
EPS (Diluted)$3.53$3.14$3.09$2.56
Gross Margin67.1%64.0%66.4%63.6%
Operating Margin24.8%22.5%24.0%21.6%
Net Margin20.8%19.2%19.6%17.2%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 11.7Profit margin 19.2%Valuation below sector median (P/E 11.7)

Tradability FilterGrade A — 89/100Score impact: +5.1pt

Volume
83
577K avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$82M/day
Float
86
65M shares
Mkt Cap
79
$9.8B
Range
100
91% spread
Composite Liquidity Score89/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 6/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$64.35$87.1530.1%Moderate
2022$62.55$99.4945.6%Wide
2023$49.34$82.7450.6%Wide
2024$79.01$105.0128.3%Moderate
2025$78.23$129.3249.2%Wide
3-Year Range
89.5%
Narrow Years
1 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
97.5%
Outstanding Shares
67M
Bid-Ask Spread
91.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.