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GCT

💻 Technology

GigaCloud Technology Inc.

Conservative #356Aggressive #129Low RiskHigh 91
$35.31+2.38%
Day High$35.36
Day Low$33.61
Volume0.5M
Mkt Cap$1.3B
52W Low $1152W High $45
Market Cap
$1.3B
P/E Ratio
10.1
Sector avg: 87.8
Rev Growth
65.0%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
33.7%
Profit Margin
10.6%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
1.01

Why This Score

GCT scores 57.9 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Strong profitability: ROE of 30.4% exceeds the 15% quality threshold.
  • Attractively valued at 10.1x earnings, below the market average.
  • High conviction (91/100) — fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 2-point penalty for execution risk.
  • Above-average volatility (16.5%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 1.01) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Minor adjustments (-2.0 points) applied. GCT's rank of #356 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score57.9
Fundamental Score54.7
ML Score61.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
73.4
6 Month
82.0
Primary
1 Year
86.3

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
4.8%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
63
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
67
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
73
Grade B
Base
53.9
SHAP
+2.1
Factors
+0.7
Conviction
+1.2
Final
57.9
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)78.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)85.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)57.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+7.2% to +12.6%
Medium-term
+11.7% to +20.0%
Long-term
+18.0% to +29.5%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 61

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score66.7/100
Target Upside-4.2%
Coverage3 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score62.6/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 — Advancing
12M Momentum+1.1%
6M Momentum+0.3%
Volatility+0.2%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+75.0%
Momentum ConsistencyModerate (0.31)
Relative Strength vs Sector+104.5%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+0.954
Momentum BreadthBroad ✓
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
2%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P97
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P72
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P91
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
+1.1σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 78 relative to sector peers78/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 88th percentileP88
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +4.3pt (features align with model priorities)
Blend: 91% fund (77.9) + 9% ML (87.6) + SHAP(+4.3) = 83.1
Factor quality: +1.5pt (multi-factor composite)
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 16.5%. Max drawdown 12% (-1.5 pts)Low
Momentum mean-reversion: -1.4pt (108% 12m momentum)
Market cap adjustment: -8.0 points ($1.3B market cap)-8.0 pts
Conviction bonus: +2.5pt (conviction=91)
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -5 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-50.0%) — earnings quality concern; R&D-adjusted ROIC: 11.0% (original: 12.6%). Software - Infrastructure has ~22% R&D intensity. Capitalizing R&D over 5 years increases invested capital by ~55%.Flag

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology — Rank #83 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
GCT57.910.165.0%10.6%$1.3B
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
Sector Average47.487.814.8%-110.0%

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy3 analysts
Buy: 2Hold: 1
Price Target
$33consensus
Low $15Median $33High $50
-8.0% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

GigaCloud Technology Inc. provides end-to-end B2B ecommerce solutions for large parcel merchandise. Its marketplace connects manufacturers primarily in Asia with resellers in the United States, Asia, and Europe to execute cross-border transactions across furniture, home appliance, fitness equipment, and other large parcel categories. The company was formerly known as Oriental Standard Human Resources Holdings Limited and changed its name to GigaCloud Technology Inc. in February 2021. GigaCloud Technology Inc. was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Suzhou, China.

CEO
Lei Wu
Employees
1,561
Beta
2.27
Industry
Software - Infrastructure
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
36.9
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-21%
High: $44.71
From 52W Low
+216.1%
Low: $11.17
Moving Averages
10-Day
$35.00
Above
20-Day
$37.50
Below
50-Day
$39.30
Below
200-Day
$29.40
Above
60-Day Support
$33.47
60-Day Resistance
$44.71
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 — AdvancingScore: 83/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+20.1%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+32.95%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.86x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
100
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$333M$323M$272M$296M
Gross Profit$77M$77M$64M$65M
Operating Income$41M$36M$28M$28M
Net Income$37M$35M$27M$31M
EPS (Diluted)$0.99$0.91$0.68$0.76
Gross Margin23.2%23.9%23.4%22.0%
Operating Margin12.2%11.1%10.4%9.3%
Net Margin11.2%10.7%10.0%10.5%

Why This Stock

TechnologyP/E ratio of 10.1Revenue growth 65.0%Profit margin 10.6%Valuation below sector median (P/E 10.1)

Tradability FilterGrade B — 73/100Score impact: -16.0pt

Volume
82
548K avg/day
Dollar Vol
77
$19M/day
Float
61
31M shares
Mkt Cap
45
$1.3B
Range
100
300% spread
Composite Liquidity Score73/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2023$4.79$19.50121.1%Wide
2024$15.61$45.1897.3%Wide
2025$11.17$43.85118.8%Wide
3-Year Range
161.7%
Narrow Years
0 / 3
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
84.8%
Outstanding Shares
37M
Bid-Ask Spread
300.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.