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53

TSBK

๐Ÿฆ Financial Services

Timberland Bancorp, Inc.

Conservative #512Aggressive #999Low Risk
$39.31+0.46%
Day High$39.55
Day Low$38.83
Volume0.0M
Mkt Cap$310M
52W Low $2852W High $40
Market Cap
$308M
P/E Ratio
10.1
Sector avg: 26.8
Rev Growth
8.8%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
20.1%
Profit Margin
26.9%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.10

Why This Score

TSBK scores 53.9 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • High net margin of 26.9%, indicating pricing power and operational efficiency.
  • Attractively valued at 10.1x earnings, below the market average.
  • Low volatility (4.1% annualized) โ€” well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.10) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (27%) โ€” steady appreciation without overheating.
  • High conviction (100/100) โ€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 25-point penalty for execution risk.

Net penalties of -25.0 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, TSBK would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score53.9
Fundamental Score77.9
ML Score63.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
79.8
6 Month
89.2
Primary
1 Year
93.9

Quality Assessment

C
Quality Grade
Average quality โ€” moderate profitability or leverage

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
59
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
75
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
0
Grade Fvery low volume, very low dollar volume
Base
49.9
SHAP
+2.0
Factors
+0.6
Conviction
+1.4
Final
53.9
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

71AVG
Value86
Quality52
Growth64
Stability91
Investment61

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)74.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)86.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)71.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+5.2% to +10.4%
Medium-term
+8.7% to +16.6%
Long-term
+13.0% to +23.8%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 63

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score75.0/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage1 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score58.9/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+0.3%
6M Momentum+0.2%
Volatility+0.0%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+7.4%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.73)
Relative Strength vs Sector+18.1%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (5.0)
Momentum Quality+0.261
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
25%
Moderate โ€” watch growth
Sector RevGr Rank
P64
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P83
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P85
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.1ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 78 relative to sector peers78/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 63th percentileP63
Blended score: 80% fundamental (78) + 20% ML (63) = 74.974.9
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.0%; Drawdown 3% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade C: mixed earnings quality, some red flags. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade C
SHAP feature alignment: +2.0pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: +1.4pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Risk Factors
Liquidity penalty: -25.0pt (grade F)Liquidity

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services โ€” Rank #161 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
TSBK53.910.18.8%26.9%$308M
CME86.427.29.9%57.5%$112.1B
FHB84.911.83.2%24.2%$3.2B
ACT84.58.92.4%54.6%$6.1B
CINF84.210.711.4%18.9%$25.8B
SEIC82.214.010.7%27.3%$10.1B
TROW79.910.13.1%28.5%$21.1B
QQQX79.710.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
IBOC78.210.67.5%40.1%$4.4B
HWC77.812.2-1.5%24.1%$5.8B
FFIN77.518.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TRMK77.111.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
NMIH77.17.78.4%55.1%$3.1B
EWBC76.712.74.6%28.3%$16.0B
WSFS76.312.8-3.1%21.1%$3.6B
MCHB76.1N/A123.7%23.2%$3.3B
Sector Average47.526.813.4%-2.8%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy1 analysts
Buy: 1

Company Overviewvia FMP

Timberland Bancorp, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Timberland Bank that provides various community banking services in Washington. It offers various deposit products, including money market deposit, checking, and regular savings accounts, as well as certificates of deposit. The company also provides one-to four-family residential, multi-family, commercial real estate, construction, custom and owner/builder construction, speculative one- to four-family construction, commercial construction, multi-family construction, land development construction, and land development loans. In addition, it offers consumer loans comprising home equity lines of credit and second mortgage loans; and automobile loans, boat loans, motorcycle loans, recreational vehicle loans, savings account loans, and unsecured loans, as well as commercial business loans. As of September 30, 2021, the company operated 24 branches located in Grays Harbor, Pierce, Thurston, Kitsap, King, and Lewis counties in Washington; and operated 25 proprietary automated teller machines. Timberland Bancorp, Inc. was founded in 1915 and is headquartered in Hoquiam, Washington.

CEO
Dean J. Brydon
Employees
274
Beta
0.34
Industry
Banks - Regional
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
47.1
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-2.7%
High: $40.41
From 52W Low
+42.9%
Low: $27.51
Moving Averages
10-Day
$38.80
Above
20-Day
$38.90
Above
50-Day
$37.40
Above
200-Day
$33.80
Above
60-Day Support
$33.33
60-Day Resistance
$40.41
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 76/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+16.3%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+6.53%
Rising
Volume Ratio
1.02x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
80
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ1 2025Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025
Revenue$30M$30M$27M$27M
Gross Profit$22M$21M$19M$19M
Operating Income$10M$10M$9M$8M
Net Income$8M$8M$7M$7M
EPS (Diluted)$1.04$1.07$0.90$0.85
Gross Margin72.6%71.5%69.4%70.2%
Operating Margin34.4%34.8%32.5%31.9%
Net Margin27.4%28.5%26.0%25.4%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 10.1Profit margin 26.9%Valuation below sector median (P/E 10.1)

Tradability FilterGrade F โ€” 0/100Score impact: -13.3pt

Low Tradability Warning

This stock has limited trading volume and/or float. Institutional investors may face difficulty entering or exiting positions without significant price impact. A post-hoc penalty has been applied to the composite score (this is not a backtested model factor โ€” it is a practical tradability overlay).

Volume
0
18K avg/day
Dollar Vol
0
$665K/day
Float
0
7M shares
Mkt Cap
0
$308M
Range
0
47% spread
Composite Liquidity Score0/100
FDCBA
very low volumevery low dollar volumelow floatsmall cap

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 21/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$26.68$30.7514.2%Narrow
2022$24.05$35.6238.8%Wide
2023$22.11$35.5046.5%Wide
2024$23.93$33.9834.7%Moderate
2025$27.51$38.2832.7%Moderate
3-Year Range
53.6%
Narrow Years
1 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
92.6%
Outstanding Shares
8M
Bid-Ask Spread
47.0%
Institutional Tradable
No

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.