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45

FSBW

๐Ÿฆ Financial Services

FS Bancorp, Inc.

Conservative #752Aggressive #1242Low RiskModerate 78MLโ†‘ 16pt
$41.19-0.17%
Day High$41.66
Day Low$40.53
Volume0.0M
Mkt Cap$310M
52W Low $3552W High $44
Market Cap
$315M
P/E Ratio
9.4
Sector avg: 26.8
Rev Growth
6.8%
Sector avg: 13.4%
Earnings Growth
-4.8%
Profit Margin
15.3%
Sector avg: -2.8%
Debt/Equity
0.46

Why This Score

FSBW scores 45.5 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Attractively valued at 9.4x earnings, below the market average.
  • Low volatility (3.9% annualized) โ€” well-suited for risk-averse portfolios.
  • Positive but moderate momentum (11%) โ€” steady appreciation without overheating.
  • High conviction (78/100) โ€” fundamental and ML signals agree on this stock.
Risk Factors
  • Liquidity concern: Limited trading volume or float results in a 25-point penalty for execution risk.

Net penalties of -25.0 points significantly impact the ranking. Without these adjustments, FSBW would rank considerably higher.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score45.5
Fundamental Score67.9
ML Score61.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
82.8
6 Month
92.6
Primary
1 Year
97.5

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (-212.7%) โ€” earnings quality concern

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
100
Advancing
Sentiment (2.5%)
43
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
50
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
0
Grade Fvery low volume, very low dollar volume
Base
41.5
SHAP
+2.9
Factors
+1.1
Final
45.5
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)60.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)78.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)61.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
+8.0% to +13.6%
Medium-term
+12.7% to +21.3%
Long-term
+19.4% to +31.2%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 61

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score50.0/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage0 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score43.0/100
News Volume0 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage2 โ€” Advancing
12M Momentum+0.1%
6M Momentum+0.0%
Volatility+0.0%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+10.0%
Momentum ConsistencyWeak (0.11)
Relative Strength vs Sector+2.3%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (2.9)
Momentum Quality+0.103
Momentum BreadthBroad โœ“
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
34%
High risk โ€” cheap + stagnating
Sector RevGr Rank
P59
Revenue growth vs Financial Services peers
Sector PE Rank
P86
Valuation vs Financial Services peers
Sector FCF Rank
P95
Free cash flow vs Financial Services peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged
Value trap warning: This stock scores in the top quartile for value trap risk. The combination of below-sector-median revenue growth, low PE, and high free cash flow yield suggests the market is pricing in stagnation. The ML model's sector-relative features (trained on 30 years of data) reduce this stock's score accordingly.

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 73 relative to sector peers73/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 89th percentileP89
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +4.4pt (features align with model priorities)โ€”
Blend: 91% fund (73.2) + 9% ML (89.0) + SHAP(+4.4) = 79.0โ€”
Factor quality: +1.7pt (multi-factor composite)โ€”
Risk assessment: low. Annualized volatility 3.9%. Stability bonus of +12.0 points. Max drawdown 8% (-0.1 pts)Low
Market cap adjustment: -20.0 points ($0.3B market cap)-20.0 pts
Divergence penalty: -0.8pt (ML 16pt higher)โ€”
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -8 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (-212.7%) โ€” earnings quality concern; CRE concentration risk: regional bank with likely elevated commercial real estate exposure โ€” forward-looking impairment risk not captured by trailing fundamentalsFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Financial Services โ€” Rank #217 of 356 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
FSBW45.59.46.8%15.3%$315M
CME86.427.29.9%57.5%$112.1B
FHB84.911.83.2%24.2%$3.2B
ACT84.48.92.4%54.6%$6.1B
CINF84.210.711.4%18.9%$25.8B
SEIC82.214.010.7%27.3%$10.1B
TROW79.910.13.1%28.5%$21.1B
QQQX79.710.448.6%257.3%$1.4B
IBOC78.210.67.5%40.1%$4.4B
HWC77.812.2-1.5%24.1%$5.8B
FFIN77.418.811.7%30.7%$4.8B
TRMK77.111.934.8%19.3%$2.7B
NMIH77.07.78.4%55.1%$3.1B
EWBC76.712.74.6%28.3%$16.0B
WSFS76.312.8-3.1%21.1%$3.6B
MCHB76.1N/A123.7%23.2%$3.3B
Sector Average47.526.813.4%-2.8%โ€”

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Hold2 analysts
Hold: 2
Price Target
$45consensus
Low $45Median $45High $45
+9.2% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

FS Bancorp, Inc. operates as a bank holding company for 1st Security Bank of Washington that provides banking and financial services to local families, local and regional businesses, and industry niches. The company operates in two segments, Commercial and Consumer Banking; and Home Lending. It offers various deposit instruments, including checking accounts, money market deposit accounts, savings accounts, and certificates of deposit. The company provides one-to-four-family residential first mortgages, second mortgage/home equity loan products, non-mortgage commercial business loans, commercial real estate loans, and construction and development loans, as well as consumer loans, which primarily include personal lines of credit, credit cards, automobile, direct home improvement, loans on deposit, and recreational loans. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 21 full bank service branches and 10 home loan production offices in suburban communities in the greater Puget Sound area, including Snohomish, King, Pierce, Jefferson, Kitsap, Clallam, Grays Harbor, Thurston, and Lewis counties; and one loan production office in the market area of the Tri-Cities. The company was founded in 1936 and is headquartered in Mountlake Terrace, Washington.

CEO
Joseph C. Adams
Employees
567
Beta
0.69
Industry
Banks - Regional
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
28.7
Oversold
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-7.3%
High: $44.22
From 52W Low
+18.4%
Low: $34.61
Moving Averages
10-Day
$41.50
Below
20-Day
$41.80
Below
50-Day
$41.90
Below
200-Day
$40.50
Above
60-Day Support
$39.48
60-Day Resistance
$44.22
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 2 โ€” AdvancingScore: 60/100

Stock is in an uptrend above the 200-day moving average. This is the stage where institutional accumulation typically occurs. The 50-day SMA provides support.

Favorable technical position; 50-day SMA acts as support
Price vs 200 SMA
+1.2%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+2.72%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.8x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
20
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025
Revenue$57M$56M$53M$51M
Gross Profit$40M$36M$35M$34M
Operating Income$14M$12M$10M$9M
Net Income$8M$9M$8M$8M
EPS (Diluted)$1.10$1.18$0.99$1.01
Gross Margin70.0%64.9%65.0%66.1%
Operating Margin24.4%20.8%18.4%18.4%
Net Margin14.7%16.4%14.5%15.6%

Why This Stock

Financial ServicesP/E ratio of 9.4Profit margin 15.3%Valuation below sector median (P/E 9.4)

Tradability FilterGrade F โ€” 0/100Score impact: -15.6pt

Low Tradability Warning

This stock has limited trading volume and/or float. Institutional investors may face difficulty entering or exiting positions without significant price impact. A post-hoc penalty has been applied to the composite score (this is not a backtested model factor โ€” it is a practical tradability overlay).

Volume
0
12K avg/day
Dollar Vol
0
$475K/day
Float
0
6M shares
Mkt Cap
0
$315M
Range
0
28% spread
Composite Liquidity Score0/100
FDCBA
very low volumevery low dollar volumelow floatsmall cap

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 30/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$29.50$36.8522.2%Narrow
2022$26.80$35.3027.4%Moderate
2023$26.08$38.7039%Wide
2024$30.64$49.1546.4%Wide
2025$34.61$44.2224.4%Narrow
3-Year Range
61.3%
Narrow Years
3 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None
Free Float
82.7%
Outstanding Shares
8M
Bid-Ask Spread
28.0%
Institutional Tradable
No

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.