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TLRY

๐Ÿฅ Healthcare

Tilray Brands, Inc.

Conservative #1366Aggressive #1365High RiskFโ†‘ 38pt
$7.99+2.04%
Day High$8.03
Day Low$7.79
Volume2.1M
Mkt Cap$809M
52W Low $452W High $23
Market Cap
$785M
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
4.8%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
-798.9%
Profit Margin
-252.6%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
0.20

Why This Score

TLRY scores 10.8 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Risk Factors
  • Above-average volatility (45.0%) may not suit conservative risk tolerance.

Moderate penalties (-8.8 points) reflect identified risk factors. The overall score balances these against the stock's fundamental strengths.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score10.8
Fundamental Score17.4
ML Score1.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
0.8
6 Month
0.9
Primary
1 Year
1.0

Quality Assessment

F
Quality Grade
Low quality โ€” significant fundamental weaknesses
1 quality flag detected โ€” see details below. These penalties are already factored into the final score.
Quality Flags
Pipeline concentration: $0.8B biotech/pharma โ€” likely single-product revenue with binary risk

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
1.8%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
40
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
53
Neutral
Tradability (post-hoc)
90
Grade A
Base
14.1
SHAP
+1.2
Factors
-1.8
Conviction
-2.5
Divergence
-0.2
Final
10.8
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Factor Breakdown

26AVG
Value50
Quality0
Growth25
Stability37
Investment18

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)42.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)17.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)61.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-42.6% to -30.6%
Medium-term
-59.2% to -43.2%
Long-term
-76.0% to -52.0%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs โ†’ ML Score: 1

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score52.5/100
Target Upside+0.0%
Coverage20 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score40.3/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 โ€” Declining
12M Momentum+0.0%
6M Momentum-0.5%
Volatility+0.4%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+47.1%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.03)
Relative Strength vs Sector-22.9%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Weak (0.0)
Momentum Quality+0.006
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
2%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P48
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P22
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P18
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
-0.0ฯƒ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 17 relative to sector peers17/100
Machine learning ensemble ranks this stock at the 1th percentileP1
Blended score: 80% fundamental (17) + 20% ML (1) = 14.114.1
Risk assessment: low. Low vol 0.4%; Drawdown 57% โ†’ 0.0ptLow
Earnings quality grade F: quality flags triggered โ€” see details below. Score adjusted by 0 pointsGrade F
SHAP feature alignment: +1.2pt (features align with model priorities)SHAP
Conviction adj: -2.5pt (conviction=N/A)Conviction
Divergence penalty: -0.2pt (ML 16pt lower)Divergence
Risk Factors
Quality concern: Pipeline concentration: $0.8B biotech/pharma โ€” likely single-product revenue with binary riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare โ€” Rank #322 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
TLRY10.8N/A4.8%-252.6%$785M
INCY89.915.821.2%25.0%$19.6B
GMAB86.113.122.8%36.4%$17.9B
CPRX83.713.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
ASND78.316.698.0%-31.7%$13.8B
EXEL78.315.17.0%33.7%$11.9B
VRTX78.232.18.9%32.9%$121.8B
NBIX75.126.521.4%16.7%$13.1B
RPRX75.025.15.1%32.4%$19.3B
HOLX74.831.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
AMGN74.226.010.0%21.0%$204.8B
ARGX73.735.178.6%38.0%$47.4B
REGN73.019.41.0%31.4%$80.2B
ALKS72.916.5-6.4%23.9%$5.0B
ISRG72.761.720.5%28.4%$180.9B
KRYS71.541.4473.0%30.7%$7.9B
Sector Average36.641.9161.5%-3292.7%โ€”

Company Overviewvia FMP

Tilray Brands, Inc. engages in the research, cultivation, production, marketing, and distribution of medical cannabis products in Canada, the United States, Europe, Australia, New Zealand, Latin America, and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Cannabis Business, Distribution Business, Beverage Alcohol Business, and Wellness Business. It offers medical and adult-use cannabis products, including GMP-certified flowers, oils, vapes, edibles, and topicals; purchases and resells pharmaceutical and wellness products; and produces, markets, sells, and distributes beverage alcohol products, and hemp-based food and other wellness products. The company offers its products under the Tilray, Aphria, Broken Coast, Symbios, B!NGO, The Batch, P'tite Pof, Dubon, Good Supply, Solei, Chowie Wowie, Canaca, RIFF, SweetWater, Breckenridge Distillery, Alpine Beer Company, and Green Flash brands. It sells its products to retailers, wholesalers, patients, physicians, hospitals, pharmacies, researchers, and governments, as well as direct to consumers. The company was formerly known as Tilray, Inc. Tilray Brands, Inc. is headquartered in Leamington, Canada.

CEO
Irwin David Simon
Employees
2,650
Beta
2.11
Industry
Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
69.0
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-65.6%
High: $23.2
From 52W Low
+127.6%
Low: $3.51
Moving Averages
10-Day
$7.70
Above
20-Day
$7.60
Above
50-Day
$8.90
Below
200-Day
$9.30
Below
60-Day Support
$6.9
60-Day Resistance
$15.7
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 โ€” DecliningScore: 27/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-14.1%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+9.21%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.28x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
23
Confidence: 40%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2025Q3 2025
Revenue$304M$288M$308M$268M
Gross Profit$80M$79M$93M$75M
Operating Income$-31M$3M$-2.0B$-1.1B
Net Income$-63M$-442,312$-1.7B$-1.1B
EPS (Diluted)$-0.57$-0.00$-17.80$-12.60
Gross Margin26.4%27.4%30.1%28.0%
Operating Margin-10.2%1.0%-643.1%-409.0%
Net Margin-20.7%-0.2%-566.9%-424.9%

Why This Stock

HealthcareValuation below sector median

Tradability FilterGrade A โ€” 90/100Score impact: -10.4pt

Volume
100
9.8M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$74M/day
Float
100
100M shares
Mkt Cap
35
$785M
Range
100
563% spread
Composite Liquidity Score90/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$69.70$313.40127.2%Wide
2022$25.20$90.80113.1%Wide
2023$15.00$35.9082.1%Wide
2024$11.40$29.7089.1%Wide
2025$3.51$23.20147.4%Wide
3-Year Range
164.4%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.15x dampening
weinstein declining

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
99.1%
Outstanding Shares
101M
Bid-Ask Spread
563.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.