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16

RGTI

💻 Technology

Rigetti Computing, Inc.

Aggressive #1362High RiskLow 39F↑ 18pt
$17.63+6.98%
Day High$17.79
Day Low$16.48
Volume31.3M
Mkt Cap$5.8B
52W Low $752W High $58
Market Cap
$5.3B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
-10.1%
Sector avg: 14.8%
Earnings Growth
-167.6%
Profit Margin
-4683.3%
Sector avg: -110.0%
Debt/Equity
0.02

Why This Score

RGTI scores 16.0 on the Aggressive profile, blending a fundamental score (55% weight, emphasizing growth and momentum (91% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (45% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Strengths
  • Minimal leverage (D/E 0.02) provides financial flexibility and downside protection.
  • Strong momentum (90%) — the market is rewarding this name.

No material penalties applied. RGTI ranks #1362 based on its factor profile and ML signal alignment.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score16.0
Fundamental Score26.2
ML Score7.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
3.3
6 Month
3.7
Primary
1 Year
3.9

Quality Assessment

D
Earnings Grade
Weak fundamentals or significant quality concerns
Speculative Classification
Speculative growth — negative margins and ROE with momentum-driven price action. High risk of mean reversion.
Anomalous margin data — extreme values suggest one-time events or accounting irregularities.

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
12.3%
Confidence
high

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
88
Positive
Analyst (6.4%)
71
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
95
Grade A
Base
17.6
SHAP
+0.6
Factors
-0.9
Conviction
-0.6
Divergence
-0.6
Final
16.0
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)38.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)41.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)90.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-36.8% to -24.8%
Medium-term
-50.3% to -34.3%
Long-term
-64.9% to -40.9%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 7

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score70.8/100
Target Upside+138.8%
Coverage6 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score88.3/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum+0.9%
6M Momentum-0.0%
Volatility+0.3%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration+91.1%
Momentum ConsistencyDivergent (-0.01)
Relative Strength vs Sector+86.1%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Moderate (2.8)
Momentum Quality+0.328
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
7%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P6
Revenue growth vs Technology peers
Sector PE Rank
P77
Valuation vs Technology peers
Sector FCF Rank
P10
Free cash flow vs Technology peers
Growth Deviation
-0.4σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 35 relative to sector peers35/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 17th percentileP17
ML model weight reduced to 26% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected26% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +0.6pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 74% fund (35.4) + 26% ML (16.9) + SHAP(+0.6) = 31.2—
Factor quality: -0.9pt (multi-factor composite)—
Momentum mean-reversion: -0.3pt (90% 12m momentum)—
Conviction penalty: -0.6pt (conviction=39)—
Divergence penalty: -0.5pt (fund 18pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Risk assessment: high. Strong momentum 90% → +12.0pt; Severe drawdown 64% → -6.0ptHigh
Earnings quality grade D: weak earnings quality, multiple concerns. Score adjusted by -8 pointsGrade D
Quality concern: Non-operating loss: operating margin (-1075.0%) exceeds net margin (-4683.3%) by 3608pp — possible write-down; High accrual ratio (85.1%) — earnings quality concernFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Technology — Rank #279 of 289 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
RGTI16.0N/A-10.1%-4683.3%$5.3B
MPWR84.891.721.2%81.0%$57.1B
ZM84.218.03.1%21.7%$27.7B
NVDA80.645.2114.2%55.8%$4.5T
CRUS79.719.16.0%17.5%$7.4B
ASML77.848.115.6%29.4%$546.0B
IDCC77.431.8-4.0%48.8%$9.7B
CSCO77.127.65.3%18.0%$303.6B
RMBS75.548.320.7%32.3%$11.0B
DBX75.313.91.9%17.7%$6.4B
FSLR75.017.326.7%30.7%$24.2B
SIMO74.79.210.2%13.8%$4.5B
ADI74.374.116.9%20.6%$165.1B
AAPL72.533.16.4%27.0%$3.9T
OLED72.527.012.4%34.3%$5.9B
AMAT72.336.44.4%24.7%$281.7B
Sector Average47.487.814.8%-110.0%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy6 analysts
Buy: 5Hold: 1
Price Target
$38consensus
Low $30Median $35High $50
+115.5% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Rigetti Computing, Inc. operates as an integrated systems company. The company builds quantum computers and the superconducting quantum processors that power them. Its machines are integrated into various public, private, or hybrid clouds through its Quantum Cloud Services platform. The company was founded in 2013 and is based in Berkeley, California.

CEO
Subodh K. Kulkarni
Employees
137
Beta
1.70
Industry
Computer Hardware
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
51.7
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-69.7%
High: $58.15
From 52W Low
+157%
Low: $6.86
Moving Averages
10-Day
$16.20
Above
20-Day
$17.10
Above
50-Day
$21.30
Below
200-Day
$21.90
Below
60-Day Support
$14.79
60-Day Resistance
$30.21
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 25/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-19.5%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
+21.64%
Rising
Volume Ratio
0.91x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
19
Confidence: 40%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$2M$2M$1M$2M
Gross Profit$404,000$566,000$442,000$1M
Operating Income$-21M$-20M$-22M$-18M
Net Income$-201M$-40M$43M$-153M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.62$-0.13$0.15$-0.80
Gross Margin20.7%31.4%30.0%44.1%
Operating Margin-1055.4%-1103.9%-1469.6%-813.3%
Net Margin-10321.9%-2201.8%2895.3%-6726.5%

Why This Stock

Technology

Tradability FilterGrade A — 95/100Score impact: -11.0pt

Volume
100
34.6M avg/day
Dollar Vol
100
$555M/day
Float
100
325M shares
Mkt Cap
68
$5.3B
Range
100
748% spread
Composite Liquidity Score95/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 6/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$9.62$12.7528%Moderate
2022$0.67$11.37177.8%Wide
2023$0.36$3.43162%Wide
2024$0.66$19.35186.8%Wide
2025$5.95$58.15162.9%Wide
3-Year Range
197.5%
Narrow Years
1 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.08x dampening
weinstein decliningrevenue decline

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
98.4%
Outstanding Shares
330M
Bid-Ask Spread
748.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.