Back to Dashboard
29

SGRY

🏥 Healthcare

Surgery Partners, Inc.

Conservative #1136Aggressive #1252Moderate RiskModerate 69F↑ 15pt
$15.49+0.72%
Day High$15.79
Day Low$15.36
Volume2.1M
Mkt Cap$2.0B
52W Low $1352W High $26
Market Cap
$2.0B
P/E Ratio
N/A
Rev Growth
13.5%
Sector avg: 161.5%
Earnings Growth
-1312.6%
Profit Margin
-5.2%
Sector avg: -3292.7%
Debt/Equity
2.24

Why This Score

SGRY scores 28.9 on the Conservative profile, blending a fundamental score (80% weight, emphasizing quality and stability (84% of fundamental weight)) with a machine-learning signal (20% weight) trained on 82 features across 30 years of data.

Risk Factors
  • Elevated leverage (D/E 2.24) increases financial risk in a rising-rate environment.

Minor adjustments (-0.8 points) applied. SGRY's rank of #1136 primarily reflects its factor profile relative to the conservative weight vector.

Score Breakdown

Overall Score28.9
Fundamental Score32.0
ML Score12.0

Score by Horizon

3 Month
41.9
6 Month
46.8
Primary
1 Year
49.3

Quality Assessment

B
Earnings Grade
Solid fundamentals with minor quality concerns
Quality Flags
High accrual ratio (1406.9%) — earnings quality concern

Position Sizing

Suggested Allocation
5%
Confidence
medium

Score Composition Waterfall

How each component affects the final score
Backtested Scoring Levers (IC-calibrated from 30y ElasticNet)
Weinstein (12.1%)
0
Declining
Sentiment (2.5%)
41
Neutral
Analyst (6.4%)
66
Favorable
Tradability (post-hoc)
88
Grade A
Base
27.9
SHAP
+1.2
Factors
+0.5
Divergence
-0.8
Final
28.9
Positive adjustment
Negative adjustment
Base blend
Final score

Signal SegmentsComputed from ML features

Fundamental (Valuation, Quality, Growth)40.0
Technical (Momentum, Weinstein, Volatility)39.0
External (Sentiment, Analyst, Macro)77.0
Scores below 50 indicate weakness in that segment relative to the universe.

Data Quality

Score
Features
Confidence
Feature Coverage89%

Growth Estimates

Short-term
-10.5% to -5.2%
Medium-term
-13.8% to -6.2%
Long-term
-17.2% to -7.2%

ML Model Core Features100 trained inputs → ML Score: 12

These features are direct inputs to the machine learning model. The model was trained on these signals alongside 100 features (including 12 momentum/technical indicators) to produce the ML percentile score.

Analyst Intelligence
Consensus Score65.9/100
Target Upside+19.1%
Coverage22 analysts
Market Sentiment
Sentiment Score41.0/100
News Volume1 articles
Technical Stage
Weinstein Stage4 — Declining
12M Momentum-0.4%
6M Momentum-0.3%
Volatility+0.1%
Momentum & Technical
Momentum Acceleration-3.9%
Momentum ConsistencyStrong (0.89)
Relative Strength vs Sector-60.2%
Trend Strength (ADX Proxy)Strong (4.8)
Momentum Quality-0.224
Momentum BreadthNarrow
Macro Regime
Bull RegimeYes
High Vol RegimeNo
S&P 500 Return+25.0%
Yield Curve-0.1bp

Sector-Relative AnalysisIn-model features

Value Trap Signal
15%
Low risk
Sector RevGr Rank
P60
Revenue growth vs Healthcare peers
Sector PE Rank
P40
Valuation vs Healthcare peers
Sector FCF Rank
P92
Free cash flow vs Healthcare peers
Growth Deviation
+0.0σ
Z-score vs sector median
Stagnation Flag
NO
Not flagged

Analysis Signals

Scoring Factors
Fundamental score of 66 relative to sector peers66/100
Machine learning model ranks this stock at the 51th percentileP51
ML model weight reduced to 9% due to macro conditions: market in extended rally phase; yield curve inverted (recession indicator); late-cycle economic indicators detected9% ML weight
SHAP feature alignment: +1.2pt (features align with model priorities)—
Blend: 91% fund (66.4) + 9% ML (49.5) + SHAP(+1.2) = 66.0—
Factor quality: +0.5pt (multi-factor composite)—
Risk assessment: moderate. Annualized volatility 7.5%. Max drawdown 37% (-11.8 pts). Price momentum -36% (-6.2 pts)Moderate
Market cap adjustment: -4.0 points ($2.0B market cap)-4.0 pts
Divergence penalty: -0.7pt (fund 15pt higher)—
Risk Factors
Earnings quality grade B: adequate earnings quality with minor concerns. Score adjusted by -8 pointsGrade B
Quality concern: High accrual ratio (1406.9%) — earnings quality concern; High leverage: D/E ratio of 2.2x — elevated balance sheet riskFlag

Sector Peer Comparison(Healthcare — Rank #230 of 344 stocks)

StockScoreP/ERev GrowthMarginMkt Cap
SGRY28.9N/A13.5%-5.2%$2.0B
INCY89.615.821.2%25.0%$20.1B
GMAB85.513.122.8%36.4%$18.5B
CPRX82.213.723.5%37.6%$3.0B
VRTX78.032.18.9%32.9%$126.0B
ASND75.716.698.0%-31.7%$13.3B
NBIX74.726.521.4%16.7%$12.5B
ALKS74.616.5-6.4%23.9%$5.5B
AMGN73.826.010.0%21.0%$199.0B
ARGX73.635.178.6%38.0%$50.9B
HOLX73.331.11.7%13.8%$16.8B
REGN72.719.41.0%31.4%$84.9B
ISRG72.361.720.5%28.4%$172.5B
EXEL71.915.17.0%33.7%$11.7B
KRYS71.041.4473.0%30.7%$8.0B
HALO70.216.822.4%43.7%$9.3B
Sector Average37.1252.3161.5%-3292.7%—

Market Sentimentvia FMP

Analyst Consensus
Buy22 analysts
Buy: 14Hold: 8
Price Target
$19consensus
Low $18Median $19High $19
+19.4% to consensus target

Company Overviewvia FMP

Surgery Partners, Inc., through its subsidiaries, owns and operates a network of surgical facilities and ancillary services in the United States. The company operates through two segments, Surgical Facility Services and Ancillary Services. Its surgical facilities comprise ambulatory surgery centers and surgical hospitals that offer non-emergency surgical procedures in various specialties, including gastroenterology, general surgery, ophthalmology, orthopedics, and pain management. The company's surgical hospitals also provide ancillary services, such as diagnostic imaging, pharmacy, laboratory, obstetrics, oncology, physical therapy, and wound care; and ancillary services, which consist of multi-specialty physician practices, urgent care facilities, and anesthesia services. As of December 31, 2021, it owned or operated a portfolio of 126 surgical facilities, including 108 ambulatory surgical centers and 18 surgical hospitals in 31 states. Surgery Partners, Inc. was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Brentwood, Tennessee.

CEO
J. Eric Evans
Employees
15,000
Beta
1.97
Industry
Medical - Care Facilities
FMP-Identified Peers

Technical Picturecomputed from daily prices

RSI (14)
66.0
Neutral
Trend
Bullish
10-day vs 50-day MA
From 52W High
-39.3%
High: $25.5
From 52W Low
+17.9%
Low: $13.14
Moving Averages
10-Day
$15.50
Below
20-Day
$14.80
Above
50-Day
$15.40
Above
200-Day
$19.80
Below
60-Day Support
$13.14
60-Day Resistance
$17.47
Weinstein Stage Analysisbased on 200-day SMA framework
Stage 4 — DecliningScore: 10/100

Stock is in a downtrend below the 200-day moving average. Price is below both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Unfavorable technical position; wait for Stage 1 basing
Price vs 200 SMA
-21.8%
200 SMA Slope (60d)
-10.41%
Falling
Volume Ratio
1.36x
10d avg vs 50d avg
Days in Stage
80
Confidence: 90%

Financial Statementslast 4 quarters via FMP

MetricQ3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024
Revenue$822M$826M$776M$864M
Gross Profit$195M$196M$162M$234M
Operating Income$106M$112M$62M$127M
Net Income$-23M$-3M$-38M$-109M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.18$-0.02$-0.30$-0.86
Gross Margin23.8%23.7%20.9%27.0%
Operating Margin12.9%13.5%8.0%14.7%
Net Margin-2.8%-0.3%-4.9%-12.6%

Why This Stock

HealthcareRevenue growth 13.5%Valuation below sector median

Tradability FilterGrade A — 88/100Score impact: -12.3pt

Volume
100
1.7M avg/day
Dollar Vol
84
$26M/day
Float
91
77M shares
Mkt Cap
60
$2.0B
Range
100
95% spread
Composite Liquidity Score88/100
FDCBA

Multi-Year Range Analysis

Sideways: 0/100
YearLowHighRangeStatus
2021$35.65$69.5864.5%Wide
2022$20.46$63.87103%Wide
2023$22.05$45.7970%Wide
2024$19.50$35.3057.7%Wide
2025$14.94$26.1654.6%Wide
3-Year Range
101.6%
Narrow Years
0 / 5
Sideways Penalty
None

Growth Projection Adjustment

0.7x dampening
weinstein basing

Growth estimates have been dampened based on technical and fundamental signals. This is a post-hoc adjustment to prevent overly optimistic projections for stocks showing declining momentum or deteriorating fundamentals.

Free Float
59.8%
Outstanding Shares
129M
Bid-Ask Spread
95.0%
Institutional Tradable
Yes

Scores are generated by a multi-stage ML pipeline combining fundamental analysis, ensemble predictions, and structural risk signals. All data is for research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.